Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- Sabah: Still a ‘fixed deposit’?
- SUARAM, and USAid expulsion from Russia
- Revolusi Mental Orang Melayu
- APA?? Rosmah Mansor pakai jam tangan bernilai RM350,000?
- Defending Ngeh's Tweet on provocative film
| Sabah: Still a ‘fixed deposit’? Posted: 20 Sep 2012 07:33 PM PDT The upcoming 13th General Election is sure to be a hotly contested election. It will be a litmus test for Prime Minister Najib Razak who is banking on his "transformational agenda" to return the BN to power. Indeed, to restore the BN to a two-thirds majority. For PR, the election is seen as Anwar Ibrahim's last chance to take over Putrajaya after the alleged September 16 coup failed. Even though many of the seats contested come from Peninsular Malaysia, the real battle will be in Sabah and Sarawak. In the 2008 General Election, the 54 seats from East Malaysia ensured BN a simple majority win. Without the 54 seats, BN would have lost power to the opposition, in the event of party crossovers. Consequently Sabah and Sarawak are considered as BN's "fixed deposits". This article is an attempt to look into the prospects and challenges of the 13th General Election in Sabah especially in light of the withdrawal of two Sabah leaders from BN – Wilfred Bumburing of UPKO (United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Association) and Lajim Ukin of Sabah UMNO (United Malays National Organisation). With the persistent attacks on Sabah Chief Minister, Musa Aman for his alleged involvement in an international money laundering scandal and the Wilfred-Lajim factor, BN is expected to face a tough challenge from the opposition to retain Sabah. The article argues that if the opposition is able to form a strong alliance and avoid contesting against each other, it could affect Sabah's fixed deposit status. Similarly, failure on BN's part to address the perennial Sabah issues such as the illegal immigrant problems and state autonomy will affect its chances of returning to power. Categorising the seats contested For analytical purposes, all the 60 state and 25 parliamentary seats contested in Sabah will be divided into three categories: "safe" BN seats (where BN has more than an 80 percent chance of winning), "marginal" or "50-50" seats (where electoral support can go either to BN or the opposition) and "opposition" seats (where the opposition has more than an 80 percent chance of winning). This prospect is based on the following two factors: 1) Changes in the number of registered voters according to age and ethnicity and 2) Less multi-cornered but more one-to-one contests in the "marginal" areas. The opposition here refers to PR comprising PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat), DAP (Democratic Action Party), and PAS (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia). The other local-based opposition parties are STAR (State Reform Party) Sabah and SAPP (Sabah People's Progressive Party). The safe BN seats There are 42 safe BN state seats and most are Muslim-majority. At the parliamentary level, there are nine safe BN seats with a large number of Muslim Bumiputera voters and they all belong to UMNO. (See Table 1 & 2) With the absence of alternative Muslim-based parties, the majority of the Muslim electorate will remain in UMNO. Among the weapons used by UMNO to maintain Muslim support are the persistent championing of Islam as a religion that unites the Muslims and the practice of on-the-spot development funds allocation. The Muslim-majority areas will be BN's key seats that will help maintain the party's grip on power. PKR appears to fail to take the Muslim support from UMNO. One of the reasons is the lack of credible and popular Muslim leaders in the party. The present Sabah PKR chief, Ahmad Thamrin is not popular among the Muslim electorate while another well-known Muslim leader, Ansari Abdullah, does not have strong Muslim support beyond his base in Tuaran. There is also the assumption that UMNO is falling apart due to the factions formed by supporters of Musa Aman and Federal Minister, Shafie Afdal. However, the so-called factions do not affect UMNO that much. So far, Musa has been able to keep the Muslim support in UMNO intact. Musa has also successfully defused the Bajau challenge led by Salleh Said, a former Chief Minister and currently Sabah UMNO deputy chief. Despite the attacks on Musa for his alleged involvement in a financial scandal, Najib seems to be mindful not to pursue the case with intensive investigations. Najib knows that Musa has the clout to decide the fate of BN in Sabah. Asking Musa to resign before the election would put Sabah BN at great risk. The question is, if Musa resigned, who will be the most likely candidate to replace him? Many people believe that Najib has an eye on Shafie, his loyal ally from Semporna, Sabah. But others have mentioned Salleh Said, Musa's number two in Sabah UMNO. Salleh is considered more liberal, in tune with the times and therefore, potentially, acceptable to Najib. Another possible candidate is Hajiji Noor, a senior UMNO member in the Sabah Cabinet. The marginal or 50-50 seats There are 10 marginal or 50-50 seats at the state level. Of the 10 seats, three are currently held by Gerakan (Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia), two each by LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah), and SAPP respectively, and one by UPKO. The three seats currently held by Gerakan previously belonged to LDP (1) and SAPP (2) previously. After an internal party conflict, Peter Pang, Au Kam Wah and Raymond Tan left their parties and joined the Gerakan. The three seats are considered as marginal as they were won under LDP and SAPP tickets. There is a high possibility that the voters might change their support to the opposition as a mark of protest over the decision of their leaders to join the peninsular-based Gerakan. The two state seats currently held by LDP, Tg. Kapor and Merotai, were won by Teo Chee Kang and Pang Yuk Ming after the opposition failed to agree on a one-to-one contest in 2008. The opposition's chances of winning the two seats from BN are high in the upcoming election if it can avoid multi-cornered fights. The other two marginal seats are in Tandek and Kadamaian. The PBS won the two seats in 2008 by marginal majorities. Grassroots sentiments in the two areas seem to indicate that the voters are unhappy with BN over its failure to address a number of local issues such as Native Customary Rights (NCR) land and poverty. The BN's handling of the Tambatuon dam in Kadamaian has also been strongly criticised. Many people are also calling for the incumbent BN representatives to step down and to allow "winnable" candidates to take over. There are several lobby groups in Kadamaian that call for the incumbent Herbert Timbun Lagadan to make way for a younger candidate. Likas and Luyang are regarded as marginal seats simply because both were won under SAPP when the party was still with BN. With SAPP now outside the ruling party, the opposition has raised its stakes in the two areas. The SAPP's victory in the two areas in 2008 with marginal majorities shows that the opposition is highly popular there. In fact, had the DAP and PKR agreed to co-operate, SAPP would have lost in the 2008 election. The voters' mood in the upcoming election will depend on SAPP's next course of action. So far, SAPP has not made any decision as to whether it would re-join BN or remain with the opposition. SAPP appears to have a "game" of its own. SAPP's neither "here-nor-there" stance has not been well received by other local-based opposition parties even though its leaders could be seen attending political rallies organised by other opposition parties. SAPP's future will depend on how well it can lobby to contest in Chinese and mixed areas. But again this will be difficult as DAP has strongly indicated its desire to contest in Chinese-majority areas. Unless SAPP and STAR Sabah are willing to compromise, they will have to contest against each other in mixed areas. There are 13 marginal seats at the parliamentary level. Four of the seats are currently held by UPKO and UMNO, three by PBS, and two by SAPP. Most of the marginal parliamentary seats are non-Muslim Bumiputera-majority. The prospect of all 12 seats remaining with BN is dependent upon the reaction of the voters to the RCI (Royal Commission of Inquiry) to investigate the presence of illegal immigrants in Sabah and leadership issues. Three of the main parties representing the Kadazandusuns are PBS, UPKO and PBRS (Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah). Joseph Pairin Kitingan, the president of PBS, is now regarded by the Kadazandusuns as an ineffective leader who is not as aggressive as before in fighting for state rights and autonomy. Pairin has defended PBS' "accommodative" and "census-building" approach but the Kadazandusuns see it as a sign of weak leadership. Bernard Dompok, the president of UPKO is also in a dilemma after the withdrawal of his deputy, Wilfred Bumburing from BN. It is believed that more UPKO members will leave the party, if not sooner, then later. Dompok, who was previously praised for speaking against the banning of the word "Allah" in Catholic churches, is now slowly losing influence in Penampang. Joseph Kurup who leads another Kadazandusun-based party, PBRS, could lose his seat in Pensiangan if he fails to address local sentiments there. He won the seat uncontested in 2008 after the candidacy of the opposition candidate was rejected on "technical grounds". The performance of the Kadazandusun-based BN parties will be seriously affected given the negative perception of the Kadazandusun electorate towards Kadazandusun leaders. The Kadazandusun voters have the habit of "kicking" their leaders out of office. This was evident in 1995 when many of the Kadazandusun leaders (for instance, Bernard Dompok and Jeffrey Kitingan) who left PBS in 1994 were voted out. In fact, BN lost in all the non-Muslim Bumiputera seats in 1995.
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| SUARAM, and USAid expulsion from Russia Posted: 20 Sep 2012 02:16 PM PDT SUARAM's initial reaction to the various demands for investigations was to garner sympathy and support. They claimed they are being harrassed, authorities are reacting to the mob and finally they try a counter offense to express willingness to be scrutinised but insist a probe on Scorpene purchase.  And don't the SUARAM people read, Confession of an Economic Hitman? Perhaps, they believe it is okay to work with the enemy of the state as long as they get their way of seizing power. That is undemocratic and they will only be another dictator to promote onlt their own agenda. The international news have been giving favourable report on Putin lately. They claim he is having confidence problem with the people. Two days back, the Russian expelled USAID out of Russia. The response would likely say that it is Putin trying to preserve himself by blaming others. Is it so or there is basis to do so? Not many months ago, one Middle East country expelled NDI operatives. Remember Rocky's posting here. Read the news below:
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| Posted: 20 Sep 2012 01:58 PM PDT Lim Guang Eng, KM Pulau Pinang. Dalam mengurus negeri tersebut, dia tak mampu mengenepikan kehendak orang Melayu disana. Dia tahu reality politik Malaysia. Pengajaran nya ialah sesiapa pun yang memerintah, kalau dia peka dan akur kepada kehendak majority, akan selamat. Orang Melayu mesti bersatu. Tapi bukanlah bersatu dibawah UMNO. Bersatulah dalam fikiran bahawa melalui bertindak seirama dan senada, merekalah yang ada kuasa dan daulat untuk menentukan bagaimana negara ini ditadbir. Kita mungkin ada kerajaan PR yang memerintah- tapi selagi orang Melayu bertindak secara kolektif, kerajaan PR pun tidak boleh lakukan selain daripada apa yang dikehendaki oleh bangsa Melayu. Itulah faktanya. Bersatulah orang Melayu tapi tidaklah ia bermaksud bersatu dibawah UMNO. Kita mesti ingat pengorbadanan orang2 dahulu, tapi janganlah kita ingat yang berkorban dahulu2 hanya orang UMNO. Masaalah UMNO sekarang ialah ia gagal memncerminkan kehendak majority dalam pemimpin nya, dalam kepimpinan merka, dalam dasar dan wawasan mereka dan dalam mutu penyokong dan ahli mereka. Adakah majority Melalu biadab dan kebiadaman mereka diwakili oleh pembaling batu dan cat kearah kenderaan Anwar Ibrahim. yang tonggeng bontot didepan rumah Ambiga- adakah mereka mewakili kebiadaban orang Melayu? Hidup dan mati kita bukan disebabkan UMNO. Kalau orang Melayu yang beragama Islam berfikiran bahawa semua nya kerana dan untuk UMNO, itu sudah kufur. Jadi, banish the thoughts that only UMNO can serve orang Melayu. Kita biarkan orang UMNO jadi lembu, majority kita orang Melayu bukan sahaja tidak mahu jadi lembu tapi juga tidak rela dilembukan! Kalau kita berkehendakkan sangat supaya orang Melayu jadi ketua, kita pilih orang Melayu. Antara calun MCA dan calun Melayu bukan UMNO bertanding, pilih orang Melayu. Kalau Melayu DAP lawan cina MCA, pilih Melayu DAP. Kalau Melayu PAS lawan Melayu UMNO, pilih yang terbaik diatara mereka. Jangan pilih Melayu UMNO walaupun kita tahu dia penyangak dan gangster dan kaki sapu duit. Salah fikiran begitu. Kalau orang Melayu nak selamat- maka perkiraan yang paling selamat, kalau Melayu lawan Cina , pilih Melayu. Kalau Melayu lawan Melayu pilih yang lebih baik. Orang Melayu tidak ikat janji dengan UMNO. Jadi relakslah. Kita tak ikrar, sesungguhnya solat ku, ibadahku, hidupku dan mati ku kerana UMNO pemerintah alam kan? Tak kiamat dan tidak kafir kita kalau singkirkan UMNO. Najib kata kalau UMNO kalah, masa depan orang Melayu akan muram. Ek betul dia dan UMNO. Macamlah dia dan UMNO sahaja yang boleh menjaga kebajikan orang Melayu. Sebuah kerajaan yang majoritinya Melayu pun boleh buat lebih baik dari UMNO. Penjagaan dan perlindungan kebajikan dan kepentingan orang Melayu tidak bersyaratkan UMNO sahaja yang boleh lakukan. UMNO dah perintah sejak tahun 1955 dan semenjak merdeka iaitu selama 55 tahun. UMNO dapat masa tersebut dan masih gagal nak lakukan yang sepatutnya dilakukan. Itu sudah bukti kuat, UMNO tidak mampu lakukan apa yang mereka janji. Sudah tiba masa nya, kita tendang UMNO keluar dan gantikan dengan kerajaan PR dimana majority pemimpin nya tetap juga Melayu. Apa yang kita lihat pada UMNO? Kita lihat bahawa setiap pemimpin UMNO melihat kedudukan dan jawatan yang mereka dapat sebagai punca mencari rezeki dan kekayaan. UMNO penuh dengan pemimpin yan rasuah. Tak masuk akal seorang naib preisden UMNO boleh beri isteri muda RM 200 ribu dan RM 1 juta seminggu!. Tak masuk akal pemimpin UMNI dengan gaji menterinya boleh memiliki lebih dari 12 buak kereta mewah. Kita tak boleh terima Noh Omar bekalkan benih padi melalui syarikat proxy nya. Semua menteri UMNO korap dan rasuah. Mukhriz dan Mutapa Mohamad dikatakan telah mengagihkan 100 juta saham FGV antara mereka berdua. Orang Melayu peneroka Felda yang berjumlah 112, 000 orang hanya dapat 800 unit saham seorang.
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| APA?? Rosmah Mansor pakai jam tangan bernilai RM350,000? Posted: 20 Sep 2012 01:51 PM PDT Rosmah Mansor dikatakan memiliki sekurang-kurangnya 11 beg tangan mewah jenama Birkin dianggarkan Rosmah membelanjakan minima RM638,000 hingga maksima RM5,192,000 untuk membeli beg tangan berkenaan. Bagi beg edisi terhad miliknya pula harga sebuah beg tangan dikatakan mencecah RM28,000 (US$ 9,000) hingga RM472,000 (US$150,000) bagi setiap satu.. sila baca di ( SINI ) Cincin berlian yang dikenali sebagai 'Natural Fancy Blue Gray Cushion Cut" miliknya itu berharga lebihkurang RM24 Juta.. sila baca di ( SINI ) Kali ini kita akan melihat lagi koleksi barangan mewah milik Rosmah Mansor iaitu jam tangan pula.. Terkini koleksi yang jam tangan yang dipakai Rosmah dalam satu majlis yang dihadirinya di Vietnam berjaya dirakam lensa kamera…  Ianya dikatakan dikatakan bernilai antara £70,000 - £100,000. Dan harga tersebut tidak termasuk duti import lagi... Atau dalam nilai RM lebih kurang RM350,000 hingga RM500,000 sahaja.. Dengan mengambil kira gaji minimum baru bagi Semenanjung Malaysia iaitu sebanyak RM900 manakala di Sabah dan Sarawak diletakkan pada paras RM800.. rakyat Malaysia perlu mengambil masa selama seperti perkiraan di bawah untuk memilikinya.. RM900 x 12 (bulan) = RM10800 x 46 tahun 4 bulan = RM500,400 Ini bermakna mereka memerlukan sekurang-kurangnya 46 tahun lama untuk memiliki jam tangan mewah berjenama Franck Muller ini.. |
| Defending Ngeh's Tweet on provocative film Posted: 20 Sep 2012 01:50 PM PDT I agree with Ngeh that Muslims have been/are wasting to much time and energy on an issue (deliberately) provoked by one single person. Instead, they should look at the 'agenda' behind the provocation.
Jones is notorious for provoking the Muslim world two years ago by his boast to burn 200 copies of the Quran. However, US State and Defence authorities successfully persuaded him against that as his action could imperil American troops in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Nonetheless, one year later (in 2011) he did burn one copy of the Quran. On the recent Bacile's provocative film, he ignored pleas from US authorities (again) not to upload the film on his church website. US media columnists have also appealed to church authorities to stop him to avoid violence in the Middle East but he gave everyone two fingers. Some US church leaders stated what he has done has been a travesty and detestable. As for the suspected 'agenda' behind the film, my agreement with Ngeh also pertains to my observations and belief that there would usually be a Zionist element behind such provocations against Muslims in general and Arabs (Palestinians) in particular. There is a very strong nexus between Ultra Zionists (both American and Israeli Zionists) and the US Christian Right, hence Jones' deliberate provocations could be related to right-wing Zionists' aim to demonize the easily provoked Arab-Muslims and/or to win back lost European sympathies and support for them - sympathies and support lost as a result of their arrogant political intransigence and feral brutalities against the Palestinians. Recently, President Obama has made an unprecedented decision (for a US President) in refusing to see Benjamin Netanyahu. Many Israeli leaders realized that Netanyahu has crossed the line in his usual 'dictates' to Obama, and took to criticizing him (Netanyahu) for his faux pas, hoping to steer him back on the proper polite path to winning back the US presidential support for an already isolated Israel. Israeli PMs, particularly an ultra like Netanyahu, believe they alone in the world have the politically teflonised backings from the US Christian Right and American Zionists to lecture, berate and scold US President on the correct political policies for the Middle-East. Usually they have been correct but Netanyahu's increasingly arrogant and strident talk-down to the US President have gotten out of hand, to an extent the US President, the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, would have suffered irreparable humiliation if he continues (like his predecessors) to quietly accept the Israeli dressing down. Perhaps the Arabs must be brought into the picture once again to help divert attention from this. If we recall some years back, when the Danish rightwing Jyllen-Posten published the Prophet Mohamad cartoons, it set the European world topsy turvy by the predictably violent reaction from Muslims and Arabs.
When European authorities and media were asked on the appropriateness of Jyllen-Posten publishing such offensive caricatures of a personality beloved by Muslims, the usual hypocritical mob would chant out blindly their mantra of 'freedom of speech and expression', while pretending not to remember how they persecuted Prince Harry for wearing a mere swastika armband to a fancy dress ball, or a Holocaust denier like David Irving for writing a book that says Jews killed by the Nazis did not number 6 millions and were considerably less.
Condemned for something associated with a fancy dress ball? For crying out loud! But the Zionist-galvanized ruckus evoked from an innocuous incident by an unsuspecting youth was so great that it not only forced the young royalty into apologising but panicked his father, the future King of England into issuing abject apologies and explanations of how silly his son had been, with British ministers wading in, all stumbling forward to prostrate themselves before the Gods of their guilt. His father even ordered little Harry to visit the Nazi concentration camp in Auschwitz to learn and atone. I have seen 'Dracula', 'Stalin', 'Tojo' and even a 'George Bush' at fancy dress balls, all winning at least a laugh or two. Shouldn't those wearers of the costumes be made to apologize to respectively Romania, Russia, Japan and the USA too? Lord Janner, a senior figure in Britain's Jewish community, said "What Harry did was both stupid and evil. The time has come for him to make a public apology." Evil? Hey! Freedom of expression? What happened to that supposedly cherished Western institution then? Oh BTW, David Irving was jailed for a number of years by an Australian Court for challenging the sacrosanct figure of 6 million Jews killed in the Holocaust.
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