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Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- In the aftermath of May 5th (part 6)
- In the aftermath of May 5th (part 5) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)
- In the aftermath of May 5th (part 4)
| In the aftermath of May 5th (part 6) Posted: 09 May 2013 09:05 PM PDT
We once found a few names registered at a cemetery (now that is what I would call real phantom voters). In fact, Azmin Ali's dead father was still a registered voter in 2004 and, more importantly, he actually voted in the 2004 general election. How was that possible? This is where your election workers need to be good. The fact that Azmin not only found out that his father was still a registered voter but that he had also 'voted' shows that his machinery is on the ball. THE CORRIDORS OF POWER Raja Petra Kamarudin
Okay, now let's get back to what I spoke about in part 4 of this series regarding election fraud. In part 4, I said, "First of all, you need to buy the list of the registered voters from the Election Commission (SPR). Your election workers then study this list to see whether there are any dubious voters on this list." This list comes in the form of a CD and you can either buy the one just for your constituency or you can buy the entire set for the whole country. So, if you wish to contest the election or you are working in the party 'war room' or the operations centre of the candidate, you must first arm yourself with this list. And you buy the final list that is going to be used for the coming election. That final list will not change until after Polling Day -- which means anyone who registers as a voter after that final list is complete will not appear on the list and cannot vote in the election. This could be the list that is closed, say, six months or so before the date of the election. You then need to carefully study the voters' list and see if you can find any dubious voters on the list. These could be names of dead people still on the list or 300 names registered at the same house address or names of people registered at an address that does not exist and so on. We once found a few names registered at a cemetery (now that is what I would call real phantom voters). In fact, Azmin Ali's dead father was still a registered voter in 2004 and, more importantly, he actually voted in the 2004 general election. How was that possible? This is where your election workers need to be good. The fact that Azmin not only found out that his father was still a registered voter but that he had also 'voted' shows that his machinery is on the ball. You need to know the names of the streets and the number of houses on that street. For example, Jalan 222 in, say, Petaling Jaya could have houses numbered from 1 to 99 on one side of the street and 2 to 100 on the facing side. Hence house number 122 on Jalan 222 in Petaling Jaya is a fake address. Once all the discrepancies are detected you need to bring this up with the SPR and get these names removed. If not you may have a high incidence of phantom voters. It is YOUR job to do this if you want to contest the election and you have only yourself to blame if you are sleeping on the job. (So it is not that easy to contest the election after all, is it? It requires a lot of hard work). Then you need to train your election workers who will be on duty on Polling Day. These would be the observers or agents at the polling centres as well as at the counting centres. They need to know the election laws plus what to do on Polling Day and how to file a protest if they find something wrong, which can later be used as evidence in the event you wish to file an Election Petition to contest the result. Before the ballot box is sealed, your agent needs to inspect the box to ensure that no 'stuffed votes' are already in the box. Only then can the ballot box be sealed, once it is confirmed that it is empty. You already know how many voters will be voting in your saluran or stream because you have the registered voters list. Let us say, for argument's sake, 1,000 voters will be voting in your saluran. When the first voter comes in to vote, his/her identity card will be checked. Then his/her name will be announced loudly with the number on the list to confirm that he/she is a registered voter. You then cancel this name, which means this person has already voted and cannot vote again. At the end of the day, after polling has ended, you count how many names from the 1,000 turned up to vote. Let's say 820 names have been cancelled. This means there should be 820 ballot papers in the ballot box. The ballot box is then sealed and you stay with the ballot box and do not take your eyes of it. If the ballot boxes are transferred to another place, say to the counting centre, you escort the ballot box and never take your eyes of it, even if a naked girl walks in to the room (or a jambu youth if you are gay). The seal for the ballot box is then broken and the ballot papers are poured onto the table and counted (make sure no ballot papers are 'stuck' in the box). The number of ballot papers counted should come to 820. And if it shows a number other than 820, you fill in the form and file a complaint. Normally the number of ballot papers in the box would tally with the number of names on the list that have been cancelled -- in this case 820. After counting the ballot papers and confirming that the numbers are correct -- meaning 820 -- you then sort the ballot papers. Let's say there are only two contestants -- Barisan Nasional and DAP. All the Barisan Nasional ballots are put into one pile and the DAP ballots into another. As they sort the ballot papers one-by-one, they have to first show you whether they are Barisan Nasional or DAP ballots. Once you are satisfied and you nod in agreement, the ballot papers are placed into the correct pile, Barisan Nasional on one side and DAP on the other. Once all 820 ballot papers have been correctly sorted to your satisfaction -- Barisan Nasional ballots on one side and DAP on the other -- you then count the ballot papers in each pile. The sum total of the two piles must come to 820. If the votes for Barisan Nasional come to 420 and, for DAP, 400 and you are not satisfied, you can demand a recount. If the recount is 419 for Barisan Nasional and 401 for DAP and you are still not satisfied, you can demand that they be counted yet again. Say the third count shows that it is again 420 for Barisan Nasional and 400 for DAP and this time you are satisfied, then this is the figure that is recorded on the form. This form is then signed by the SPR with the agents for all the candidates also counter-signing the form. You then demand a copy of this form for your records. That would be the final result. So how can they cheat? The number of registered voters in your saluran is 1,000. This has been confirmed by your party HQ or the operations centre of your candidate. The number of people who voted was 820. You confirmed this. The number of ballot papers in the ballot box is also 820. You confirmed this. The total votes for both candidates is 820. You confirmed this. They sorted out the ballot papers correctly. You saw this yourself. They counted both piles correctly. You saw this yourself. And the sum total for both piles comes to 820. You confirmed this. Hence Barisan Nasional won that particular salurn with 420 votes versus DAP's 400 votes. All this was done in front of you with you as the witness. So, pray tell, how can they cheat as far as what happened in your saluran on Polling Day is concerned? TO BE CONTINUED
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| In the aftermath of May 5th (part 5) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation) Posted: 09 May 2013 06:48 PM PDT
And that would mean Umno's days are numbered when more Malays move away from Umno and swing over to PAS and PKR in the spirit of Pakatan Rakyat. And this would happen when the 'power struggle' changes from a vertical divide into a horizontal divide (a struggle between the rulers and the ruled -- like what is already happening in the recent general election). THE CORRIDORS OF POWER Raja Petra Kamarudin
GE13 not a 'Chinese tsunami', says Merdeka Center (The Malaysian Insider) - Election 2013 was not simply a "Chinese tsunami" as it showed a major swing among the multiracial urban and middle-class electorate against Barisan Nasional (BN), independent pollster Merdeka Center said yesterday. Sinar Harian Online reported Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian (picture) today as saying that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's reading of the May 5 general election as a "Chinese tsunami" was inaccurate as urban Malays had also voted for Pakatan Rakyat (PR). "There were differences between the low-income and the middle-income areas, as well as between the urban and rural areas," Ibrahim was quoted as saying. Analysts have noted that BN's historic losses in Election 2013 were the result of a middle-class and urban exodus from the coalition that further widened the urban-rural rift in the country. In their preliminary reading of the vote trend, analysts pointed out that despite the increase in Chinese support for PR, the political tsunami had also swept with it a large number of Malays who form part of the country's middle- to upper-class electorate. Ibrahim was also quoted as saying today that several constituencies had shown marginal BN victories that reflected a tight competition between BN and PR. BN lost the popular vote for the first time since 1969 when it was then the Alliance. BN also bled an additional seven federal seats to PR in Sunday's polls. BN and PR won 133 and 89 federal seats respectively. ************************************************** Why do we call the 1600s uprising in England the English Civil War while we call the 1700s uprising in France the French Revolution? Basically, they were both almost the same but one is called a civil war while the other a revolution. In England, the fight was between two ruling blocs, a power struggle of sorts, while in France it was between the ruling elite and the ruled. Hence England was divided vertically (so we call it a civil war) while France was divided horizontally (so we call it a revolution). But both countries were still divided nevertheless. Then, in the 1800s, Europe was again divided. But this time they very cleverly used nationalism (or we can also call it ketuananism, 'unification', racism, parochialism, etc.) to divide the people. And that worked even 'better' than what happened earlier in the 1600s and 1700s. Basically, we unite the people by dividing them. Does this sound contradictory or appear like an oxymoron? No, that is called Machiavellian politics, the best and most effective form of politics because it never fails and always works. No doubt the 1800s rise of nationalism managed to demolish the very powerful Hapsburg and Holy Roman Empires and helped create Germany and Italy plus many smaller nation-states such as Serbia, Bosnia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Albania, Poland, Holland, Switzerland, etc. But that also badly divided Europe. Hence while nationalism may have united the people into nation-states, it also divided the people by race. So you gain one thing but you lose something else. And, not long after that, in the 1900s, Europe was dragged into two world wars. Hence a good thing such as 'independence' and the creation of democratic republics also brought with it a terrible toll in loss of life when racism took over. (Remember what happened in India?) Hence, when you unite the people according to language and culture, like in Europe in the 1800s, the spectre of racism rears its ugly head. So, to unite the Chinese or the Malays amongst themselves (or even the Indians and the natives of East Malaysia amongst themselves) racism is the key and racism would also be the end product. The Chinese are now united. The fact that more than 90% of the Chinese voters voted en bloc for DAP is proof of this. The Malays, however, are not. Umno, PAS and PKR all have to 'share' the Malay vote. And that is the main dilemma facing Umno. DAP has more than 90% of the Chinese 'cake' while Umno has to share the Malay 'cake' with PAS and PKR. And that would mean Umno's days are numbered when more Malays move away from Umno and swing over to PAS and PKR in the spirit of Pakatan Rakyat. And this would happen when the 'power struggle' changes from a vertical divide into a horizontal divide (a struggle between the rulers and the ruled -- like what is already happening in the recent general election). In West Malaysia, Barisan Nasional is basically just Umno (the rulers). However, Pakatan Rakyat is DAP, PAS and PKR (the ruled). Hence it is three against one: DAP, PAS and PKR versus Umno almost alone. Therefore, without East Malaysia, Barisan Nasional (meaning Umno) is a dead duck. So that is what they mean by the 'Chinese Tsunami'. It does not mean only the Chinese voted Pakatan Rakyat while the Malays, Indians and 'others' did not. It means Pakatan Rakyat almost has a monopoly of the Chinese vote while the Malay votes are shared by three political parties. Umno has only about half the Malay vote and the other half is shared between PAS and PKR. Umno does not have an almost monopoly of the Malay vote like Pakatan Rakyat has with the Chinese vote. So the term 'Chinese Tsunami' has been misused or misunderstood here. It is not that only the Chinese voted Pakatan Rakyat. It is that Pakatan Rakyat has an almost monopoly of the Chinese vote. And this has frightened the daylights out of Umno. However, take note of one thing, if Umno wants to unite the Malays like how DAP has united the Chinese, then Umno has to play the nationalist card like they did in Europe in the 1800s. Then we are going to see the same tragedy that Europe saw in the 1900s (and are still seeing to a certain extent until today). And not one more thing: another word for nationalism is racism or parochialism. TO BE CONTINUED *********************************************** 5月5之後（五） 原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin 譯文：方宙 在英國，那場抗爭是兩組權利之間的戰爭，類似于權力之爭，但在法國則是平民與貴族之爭。因此，英國是縱向分離（所以是内戰）而法國是橫向分離（所以是革命）。但無論如何，這兩個國家都作出了分離來開戰。 然後，再1800年間，歐洲再一次分離。但這一次他們用了一個很聰明的詞，叫做民族主義nationalism (或我們可稱爲ketuananism, '聯合', 種族主義, 狹隘主義等) 來分離人民。那比1600和1700的效果還要來得好。 基本上，我們通過分離人民來統一他們。 這聼起來是不是很矛盾呢？不是的，這就是马基亚维利Machiavellian 式政治，史上最好最有效的政治模式，它從來沒有失敗過。 1800年間的民族主義瓦解了強大的哈布斯堡王朝和神圣罗马帝国，使得許多國傢如德國，意大利，塞爾維亞，波黑，斯洛文尼亞，斯洛伐克，奧地利，匈牙利，羅馬尼亞，保加利亞，捷克共和國，阿爾巴尼亞，波蘭，荷蘭，瑞士等得以誕生。但與此同時它也分裂了整個歐洲。所以，雖然說民族主義雖然能把人民團結出來組織國家，但它也能把人民以種族來作出區分。 在你得到某些東西的儅兒你也會失去某些東西。就在那不久后，即1900年間，歐洲被捲入了兩次世界大戰。好事是他們得到了'獨立'，有許多共和國在此后組成，但壞事是種族主義所導致的人命的傷亡（還記得印度所發生的事情嗎？）。 所以，儅你是通過語言和文化把人民給團結起來時，那正如1800年的歐洲，醜陋的種族主義也會慢慢地擡起頭來。 要把華人或馬來人團結起來（即使是印度人、東馬土著也一樣）種族主義是個關鍵，而種族主義也將是個最終成品。 華人現在團結起來了，多過90%的華族一窩蜂地投個行動黨就是個很好的證據。馬來人則還沒有，巫統，伊黨和公正黨還在瓜分馬來選票。這也是令巫統很糾結的：行動黨擁有90%的'華人蛋糕'，但巫統必須和伊黨與公正黨'公司'。 這也表示儅越來越多馬來人轉向伊黨和公正黨時，巫統下臺是指日可待的。而儅'權力鬥爭'從縱向轉成橫向（即鬥爭變成統治者對壘掌被統治者的鬥爭----在此屆大選我們已經開始看到各端倪了）時，這很可能會發生。 在西馬，囯陣相等于巫統（統治者）而已，但民聯確是伊黨，行動黨和公正黨（被統治）。所以嚴格來講這是個三對一的戰爭。因此，如果沒有了東馬的話，那囯陣（既是巫統）只是一只軟腳蝦而已。 所以這就是他們口中'華人海嘯'真正的意思。它不只是代表只有華人投給民聯而馬來人，印度人和其他人按兵不動。它更大指的是民聯幾乎壟斷了華人票但馬來票卻有三個去向。巫統只能掌握一半的馬來票源，而民聯另一半；巫統並沒有絕對地壟斷馬來票，不像民聯已壟斷華人票般。 所以說'華人海嘯'這個詞在此被誤解了，它並不單單指華人一概投給民聯，它指的是民聯已壟斷了華人票源。而這以把巫統嚇破膽了。 對了，請看清一點，如果巫統想要像行動黨把華人團結起來般地團結馬來人，那巫統就必須像是1800年的歐洲般打出民族主義這張牌。然後，我們就會看到1900年歐洲歷史悲劇重新在馬來西亞上演（其實我們現在還可以看到某程度的悲劇正在歐洲上演著）。 還有一件事情你得看清：民族主義的另一個稱呼是'種族主義'或'狹隘主意'。 |
| In the aftermath of May 5th (part 4) Posted: 09 May 2013 04:43 PM PDT
Anwar's knee-jerk reaction when the results were announced on Sunday night was that Pakatan Rakyat won 51% of the votes so this means Pakatan Rakyat won the election. In 1933, Adolf Hitler won only 43% of the votes and 33% of the seats and yet his party took power. Al Gore won 48.4% of the votes but George W. Bush took power with 47.9% of the votes. In 1969, the Alliance Party won 49% of the votes and still managed to form the government. THE CORRIDORS OF POWER Raja Petra Kamarudin
Democracy blackout On May 5th, millions of Malaysians called out in a single voice that you wanted change. Change from a corrupt regime of UMNO-BN that has held on to power for more than five decades. It was a voice that was strong and clear. You said to the UMNO-BN leaders: Enough! Enough of corruption and abuse of power! Enough of racism, bad governance and mismanagement of the nation's wealth! Let Pakatan Rakyat take over now! But they refused. To stay in power they cheated. They want to continue to rob from the nation. Working hand in glove with the Election Commission they resorted to all kinds of fraud and declared themselves the winner. By this act of cheating they turned the brightest hour in our nation's history into its darkest. But last night YOU responded. Hundreds of thousands Malaysians from all races and walks of life, young and old – came to Stadium Kelana Jaya to show your outrage against the injustice and fraud. You showed courage and determination. You braved the traffic jams, walked kilometres and stood in the pouring rain because you believe your cause is a noble one. You were peaceful. You showed your allegiance to the Yang diPertuan Agong and sang the national anthem with pride. You demonstrated clearly that we are a nation united as Bangsa Malaysia. Some say that you gathered because you cannot accept defeat. This is a gross insult and lie. The truth is that your victory has been stolen from you. It is they who cannot accept defeat and who have resorted to cheating to stay in power. You are on the side of truth and truth will triumph over falsehood. You have every right to be outraged that your vote for change has been hijacked. You have every right to feel hurt and insulted by the accusations of being ungrateful and greedy just because you voted for Pakatan. Our mission is clear. We are no longer just campaigning. We are building a movement. We will protest against the fraud and this disgraceful act of denying the people their victory. We will bring together all Malaysians to fight to end corruption, racism and the abuse of power. They are now playing with the fire of racism and hate-mongering and trying every means possible to intimidate you. As long as we stay united there is nothing to fear. Together we will show the illegitimate UMNO-BN government that our voice is not easy to silence. We will show them our resolve and the courage of our convictions. We will not stop until justice and victory is returned to us. If you believe in this mission I give you my word that the Pakatan Rakyat is with you. We will stand firmly with you all the way. We will never surrender. Thank you, ANWAR IBRAHIM ************************************************** Anwar Ibrahim's statement above is interesting mainly for the reason that it is merely rhetorical but lacks details. Anwar was very vague as to what type of cheating he was referring to. We must remember that most Malaysians do not understand how the electoral process works so this may not only confuse people but will mislead them as well. If you have worked as an election worker in an election then you would know how the process works. You would then not be satisfied with mere allegations of fraud but would like details about how this fraud was perpetuated. It is not that easy to cheat during an election but it is possible to cheat before the election. But then some of this cheating is not really cheating. It is called gerrymandering and is quite easy to do plus is perfectly legal. Everyone does it, even in advanced and civilised societies, and that is how parties get into office with less than 40% of the popular vote, but just as long as they win 51% or so of the seats with those 40% votes. Anwar's knee-jerk reaction when the results were announced on Sunday night was that Pakatan Rakyat won 51% of the votes so this means Pakatan Rakyat won the election. In 1933, Adolf Hitler won only 43% of the votes and 33% of the seats and yet his party took power. Al Gore won 48.4% of the votes but George W. Bush took power with 47.9% of the votes. In 1969, the Alliance Party won 49% of the votes and still managed to form the government. So it does not mean if you win 51% of the votes you have won the election. Hence Anwar should not confuse the people by saying that since Pakatan Rakyat won more votes than Barisan Nasional then Pakatan Rakyat won the election. The winner is not based on how many votes you win but by how many seats you win, and Anwar knows this. Now, how do you run an election to make sure you are not 'cheated' and you win? If Anwar does not know the answer then he should just retire. Actually he does know the answer to this question but he is mischievously leaving it vague. And this is very naughty of him. First of all, you need to buy the list of the registered voters from the Election Commission (SPR). Your election workers then study this list to see whether there are any dubious voters on this list. For example, you may find 300 voters registered at the same house address. Your election workers then visit this house to determine whether it is true that there are 300 people living in this one house. Most likely there are less than 10 people living in that house so this would mean the 300 registered voters are 'phantom' voters. Now, this does not mean these 300 people do not exist. It could mean these people are living somewhere else but have been 'moved' to this area and since they do not have a home in that area they are 'tompanging' ('squatting') in this address. These are what they refer to as 'phantom' voters -- people living somewhere else from where they are registered to vote. But they do exist. They are not really phantoms in the sense they are non-existent people. If you are sure of winning in a certain area and your majority in that area is traditionally very large (say like Marang in Terengganu), then you can afford to shift some of your voters to the neighbouring area where the situation is normally 50:50 (say like Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu). You are not worried about Marang. That is PAS President Ustaz Haji Abdul Hadi Awang's area and no one can defeat him there. But Kuala Terengganu always swings between PAS and Umno (and even Parti Negara and Semangat 46 at one time) so you need to 'strengthen' that seat. So you shift some of the Marang voters to Kuala Terengganu so that you can win both seats instead of winning one and losing one. That was why PAS won 15 of the 32 state seats in Terengganu (Umno won 17) and 4 of the 8 parliamentary seats (a tie). PAS very cleverly spread out their voters. Kelantan is another case in point. Thousands of Kelantanese no longer live in Kelantan. They work and live all over Malaysia, many even in Singapore. But they do not transfer their place of voting to where they work/live. They remain registered in Kelantan and then go back to Kelantan to vote. This is to make sure that PAS can retain Kelantan. Umno can, therefore, call these voters PAS's phantom voters. So PAS and Umno are actually cleverer at this game than DAP or PKR. DAP and PKR lump their voters in one place. Hence they win large majorities. PAS and Umno shift their voters and spread them out strategically. Hence with lesser votes they can win more seats whereas the reverse would happen for PKR and DAP. But why did DAP win more seats than PAS? Well that is because PAS, PKR and Umno are sharing the 60% Malay votes while DAP monopolises the Chinese voters. Hence DAP gets more than 90% of the Chinese votes (in some saluran it was actually 100%, which shocked Umno) while PAS, PKR and Umno have to split the 60% Malay voters three ways. And this is what concerns Umno. Umno can see that DAP now has a monopoly on the Chinese votes whereas Umno needs to compete with PAS and PKR for a share of the Malay votes. Nevertheless, while Umno has to share the Malay votes with PAS and PKR, Umno won 88 seats versus 51 for PAS and PKR. And not all PKR seats are Malay seats. Some are Chinese/Indian seats. Hence, if you minus these seats, then Umno won 2:1 versus PAS and PKR. TO BE CONTINUED
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