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Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

The changing political dynamics
Crouching concern, hidden dagger
Analysis: Malaysia - It was Never About the Election
MCA mustn’t leave the cabinet
Fortress Johor stands

Posted: 06 May 2013 02:56 PM PDT

Contrary to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's arguments in his victory speech, the '2013 tsunami' wasn't merely racial. There are also powerful socio-economic and political forces at work.

Indeed, by the year 2000 it was estimated that two out of every seven persons resident in Selangor were migrants who had been born elsewhere. This makes it very hard to win voters, including Malay Muslims, using or working through the traditional means of social organisation: for instance, the kampung networks. This is to say nothing of the fact that urban voters tend to be better educated and more in-tune with the Internet – ergo the alternative media with its freer news coverage and analysis.

Karim Raslan, The Star

ON May 5, Malaysians went to the polls. We lined up patiently outside schools, civic halls and other polling stations in our millions, swamping the Election Commission's preparations.

Indeed, the final turnout was 80% of all eligible voters, or 12,992,661 out of 13.3 million – the highest in Malaysia's history.

I arrived outside the Sekolah Rendah Agama Masjid Saidina Omar Al Khattab in Damansara Heights at 7.15am and was amongst the first 20 or so to secure entry to vote at 8am.

By the time the voting booths opened, there were hundreds waiting behind me in a queue that snaked like a corkscrew in the school's car park.

We were a fairly motley crew, bleary-eyed but enthusiastic.

There was Uncle Wong, a 71-year-old pensioner and now inveterate traveller, Pak Cik Mahmud, a 67-year-old Malayan Railways retiree and his 30-year-old son Abdul Khalid, both residents of Damansara Heights.

Another writer, Dina Zaman, was a few steps behind me.

The crowd was thoroughly multiracial and lively, the way our cities are and because we couldn't remain silent for long we soon started talking though not about politics.

Instead, we chatted about friends, family and where I should head to next with Ceritalah Malaysia.

To my amazement, Uncle Wong had already followed in my footsteps and visited Keningau in Sabah.

After I voted, the feeling was of exhilaration and relief.

However, the endless wait for the results was much longer and far less fun.

Honestly, the Elections Commis-sion (EC) really needs to buck up in releasing results – to say nothing of alleged problems with the indelible ink and phantom voters.

The delays and the lack of information only served to fuel speculation and distrust.

Still, the 13th general election will help us understand how Malaysia's political battle lines are being drawn.

Contrary to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's arguments in his victory speech, the "2013 tsunami" wasn't merely racial.

There are also powerful socio-economic and political forces at work.

Basically, Malaysia's cities, suburbs and towns are establishing their way of doing politics and the issues that matter to their residents and voters.

Malaysia's urban areas have different views as to how the country should be governed.

They want change, even if this does not necessarily mean a change in government.

Moreover, it's not surprising why this is so.

Our cities and towns are wonderfully eclectic.

There are countless communities and sub-communities embedded in our various Taman's and Jaya's – families who were born and grew up in isolated long-houses on the Baram and Limbang rivers, or other villages in Pasir Mas, Mentakab and Kuala Kedah.

Internal migration now means those resident in Johor's booming south or the Klang Valley are more likely to have been born elsewhere.

Indeed, by the year 2000 it was estimated that two out of every seven persons resident in Selangor were migrants who had been born elsewhere.

This makes it very hard to win voters, including Malay Muslims, using or working through the traditional means of social organisation: for instance, the kampung networks.

This is to say nothing of the fact that urban voters tend to be better educated and more in-tune with the Internet – ergo the alternative media with its freer news coverage and analysis.

As a result these voters are very performance-driven.

They like Hannah Yeoh because she works phenomenally hard and is sincere and approachable.

The fact that she's a DAP cadre is secondary.

In fact appeals to particular exclusive ethnic or religious affiliations have limited traction – witness Zulkifli Noordin's failure to win in Shah Alam.

Underperform as the out-going Kedah Mentri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak did and you're out.

Deliver as Perak Mentri Besar Zambry Abdul Kadir did and you'll scrape through.

Indeed, Zambry, a thinker with a self-deprecating and witty turn-of-phrase, is exactly the type of leader Barisan Nasional needs if it's serious about reclaiming the urban voters.

Because let's face it: Pakatan Rakyat has largely beaten Barisan in the cities.

Barisan can continue to govern on the back of the rural vote in the short-term, but the fact is that the cities are the source of ideas and energy it desperately needs to keep reinventing itself.

Pakatan may not have made the gains it had hoped but it clearly has the most dynamic parts of Malaysia on its side.

Like it or not, this gives it an edge in the long run.

This is what Najib needs to work on in the weeks and months ahead if he truly wants to leave a legacy.

Crouching concern, hidden dagger

Posted: 06 May 2013 02:22 PM PDT

The national reconciliation proposal thrown this time around sounds astonishingly similar exactly 40 years on, like an alchemy to be unleashed passed from father to son.

By Syed Nadzri Syed Harun, FMT

Tun Daim Zainuddin was brutally right again and by now should already be Malaysia's No1 political pundit. His main predictions of the 13th general election (GE13) actually came true — that Kedah would be back with Barisan Nasional (BN) and that the Chinese would lose crucial representation by totally choosing to desert BN.

After a mind-boggling forecast that was spot on regarding the political tsunami of the last round, the former finance minister got everyone talking when he turned out to be convincingly accurate about BN regaining Kedah after five years and especially about the shaky Chinese ground.

While Kedah is quite straightforward, the "Chinese tsunami" phenomenon that lashed through the Malaysian political landscape when the results came in the wee hours yesterday requires deep thinking on all fronts.

The scenario: BN won 133 parliamentary seats, 88 through its Malay affiliate Umno. And on the other side, a large chunk of the seats secured by Pakatan Rakyat (PR) was through DAP, a mainly-Chinese party. The MCA and Gerakan, the Chinese-based partners in BN, were nearly wiped out.

Coupled with MCA's assertion that it would not accept any Cabinet posting since it has fared worse than 2008 (seven parliamentary seats this time against 15 in the last round), it may all come to this now: a predominantly Malay federal government against a Chinese dominated Opposition.

Exactly what Daim had cautioned against. A very unhealthy situation.

Even Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak wore that worried look when he spoke about this at an early morning victory press conference yesterday.

He underlined the need for the BN government to embark on a national reconciliation process as part of a move to heal the racial and political divisions that have sparked in the wake of GE13.

"We (BN) are still trying to absorb the results, but we will be looking forward to reject political and racial extremism, and work towards a more moderate and accommodating environment," he said.

Deja vu? The talk of national reconciliation brings back uncanny parallels of the past involving no less than Najib's father, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, when he became prime minister not long after the milestone 1969 elections that brought in similar situations about Malay-Chinese and urban-rural divides.

With so much challenges before him, Abdul Razak rode on a "national resilience" (ketahanan rakyat) agenda then to bring together adverse forces to drive the country forward.

The national reconciliation proposal thrown this time around sounds astonishingly similar exactly 40 years on, like an alchemy to be unleashed passed from father to son.

DAP in federal government?

Back then, daddy fortified Alliance, the ruling coalition, in forming the BN by bringing in the Opposition Gerakan, a mainly Chinese- and urban-based party, and the Islamist PAS into the fold.

Gerakan, despite going through internal problems at that time, appealed to the young middle-class intellectuals. But in one master-stroke Abdul Razak, it was reported, institutionalised coalition politics in Malaysia to reduce undesirable communal politicking. On June 1, 1974, the BN was formally registered to gear up for the forthcoming elections.

Posted: 06 May 2013 02:12 PM PDT

Najib could be saved from a sudden political death, as there is really nobody within close range to the current leadership who has the necessary charisma, innovation and goodwill to make the necessary reforms. Going against all pundits, Najib may survive. Toppling him now for his deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, could lead to very costly rifts in UMNO, which the party may not be able to afford.

Murray Hunter, Asia Sentinel

It was always about what would happen afterwards

It is extremely difficult to find any real winners in the results which dripped out from Malaysia's Electoral Commission late Sunday night and early Monday morning - although, somewhat surprisingly, one could be Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, who ran ahead of his party and who managed to preserve majorities in Negeri Sembilan, Terengganu and Pahang against an opposition onslaught, and to win back Kedah through the clever tactic of sending Mukhriz Mahathir, the son of the long-serving Prime Minister into the fray as a candidate for the chief ministership.

The United Malays National Organization, the biggest ethnic* party in the Barisan, needs reform and there is no one in sight who can drive it. Failing to reform will lead UMNO to inevitable extinction within two general elections. The biggest problem is that the party may not want to reform itself. It is evident that Najib over the last few years hasn't been able to firmly steer UMNO into the directions he wanted to go, and his agenda has been hijacked by the likes of the Malay nationalist NGO Perkasa, doing great damage. For these reasons perhaps he should not take total blame.

In this light, Najib could be saved from a sudden political death, as there is really nobody within close range to the current leadership who has the necessary charisma, innovation and goodwill to make the necessary reforms. Going against all pundits, Najib may survive. Toppling him now for his deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, could lead to very costly rifts in UMNO, which the party may not be able to afford. Any change in the current leadership would most probably signal that UMNO will steer to the conservative right, counterintuitive to what the electorate might be saying. It was UMNO moderates such as Khairy Jamaluddin and Shahrir Samad who profited in the election.

Federally, the opposition gained a net seven seats, with the new Parliament comprising 133 Barisan Nasional to 89 Pakatan Rakyat seats. However at the same time Pakatan lost ground, losing federal seats in the northern state of Kedah, as well as the state government.

Notably Parti Islam se-Malaysia Vice President Mohamad Sabu, considered to be a modernizer for PAS, lost the Pendatang parliamentary seat in Kedah. Pakatan Rakyat also failed to make any gains in neighboring Perlis, even though it believed it had a chance of doing so. The opposition coalition narrowly failed to regain the Perak state government which it lost through defections in 2009, with the Barisan winning 31 to Pakatan 28 seats. In addition the opposition just failed to win the state government in Terengganu where many commentators believed that Pakatan would have to win if it had any chance of winning the Federal government. Pakatan Rakyat also failed to wrest Negri Sembilan from the BN, with PAS losing all of the 10 seats it contested.

The Barisan had a number of casualties. DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang trounced Johor Chief Minister Abdul Ghani Othman in Johor, and the Melaka Chief Minister Mohd Ali Rustam, trying to move to the federal parliament was defeated. Federal Territories Minister Raja Nong Chik Zainal Abidin failed in his bid to win the urban seat of Lembah Pantai in Kuala Lumpur from the PKR incumbent Nurual Izzah Anwar. A cabinet minister in Sabah Bernard Dompok, and VK Liew in Sandakan both lost. Yong Koon Seng in Sarawak also lost his seat of Stampin. This has given Pakatan Rakyata a new front in East Malaysia where they now hold three parliamentary seats and 11 state seats in Sabah, and picked up six parliamentary seats in Sarawak.

The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) went from 15 seats to 6 federally, and to only 10 state seats, although they contested 37 parliamentary and 90 state seats. Gerakan now only has one seat in the parliament. The Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) won only four out the nine seats it contested. The Barisan is effectively a bumiputera government with little Chinese or Indian representation.

The two ultra Malay Perkasa candidates, Ibrahim Ali in Pasir Mas Kelantan and Zulkifli Noordin in Shah Alam, Selangor both lost to Pakatan Rakyat candidates, indicating that the electorate is not in favor of extreme politics.

The Democratic Action Party (DAP) is probably the exception. It has made massive gains both state and federally, making great inroads and winning many seats in the urban areas of Penang, Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur, Seremban, Melaka and in Johor. It has consolidated its position in holding Penang, and is now the biggest party in the opposition with 38 seats. This is in contrast to both PAS and PKR, which both lost federal seats.

From the Pakatan perspective, winning government from the 2008 base was probably too ambitious. Rarely can any opposition in a Westminster system make such gains in one election, and it is easy to forget the dissatisfactions back in 2008 with the Barisan that led to that result. Therefore making further electoral gains was not going to be easy, except perhaps in areas like Johor, Sabah, and Sarawak, which hadn't been focused upon before.

From this reasoning perhaps Pakatan lost the election back in 2008 by not choosing to consolidate what it had won, and to pursue gaining government so vigorously. Where Pakatan ran effective and efficient governments they gained, in Kedah, where internal problems were perceived, the state was lost, just as Pakatan lost Terengganu back in 1999.

In retrospect Pakatan's strategy of running a continuous election campaign since 2008 may not have been the wisest. Pakatan's dealing with all the corruption issues arising during the last five years within the Barisan government did little to win over the voters they needed. The issues of good governance and corruption appeal to the middle class urban constituency, but the rural constituency has little interest in those issues.

And this is a problem for the Barisan. This traditional constituency, which has voted according to their prosperity and sense of stability, is shrinking. The demographics of Malaysia are rapidly changing where the rural/urban ratio has turned 180 degrees from being 70/30 to 30/70 over the last three election periods although because of malapportionment rural votes are effectively double the value of urban ones.

Therefore for Pakatan to rule, it must win the hearts and minds of the rural constituency, and for the Barisan it must determine how it can win the hearts and minds of the urban constituency.

This is the basic dilemma facing both fronts, providing different and specific challenges to each.

MCA mustn’t leave the cabinet

Posted: 06 May 2013 12:06 PM PDT

What kind of a cabinet is it if it does not have a minister from MCA for the first time ever, and a 1Malaysia Cabinet at that?

Azman Ujang, The Sun Daily

FOR the second time in a row, the MCA again ended up the biggest loser of the just-ended general election. If the Barisan Nasional's (BN) loss of its two-thirds majority in Parliament and four states in the 2008 election was attributed to a political tsunami, this time it was in the form of a massive swing of Chinese votes.

This fresh political tidal wave that swept the country on Sunday night saw the DAP scoring big wins, increasing its seats in Parliament to 38 from 29. With its two other partners in Pakatan Rakyat, PAS and PKR, the Opposition now has 89 seats, 23 short of a simple majority that would have enabled it to come to power in Putrajaya.

This is now all academic after the BN triumphantly returned to power in the hardest-fought election ever with 133 seats.

As MCA leaders start to lick the wounds of defeat a day after the polls, the attention is now turned to the making of the new cabinet by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak. Najib's task is not being made any simpler by an announcement by MCA president Datuk Dr Chua Soi Lek that the party is sticking to its decision not to accept any cabinet post now that it did not do better than the 2008 election.

Chua said the party EGM had passed a resolution that if it won less than the 15 parliamentary seats it obtained five years ago, none of its MPs would take up any government posts, including minister and deputy minister. The party fielded candidates in 40 parliamentary constituencies in 2008 but won only 15.

In reiterating that MCA would stick to this resolution, he said the party would have to go through another EGM if it wanted to revoke it.

After winning only seven of the 37 parliamentary seats it contested this time, its worst ever performance, the MCA surely now finds the idea of passing the resolution backfiring in its face. We all know that the objective of having this "threat" was to warn the Chinese electorate that the community would have no representation in the cabinet if the party did not win more MP seats. Gerakan, the other BN partner that put up Chinese candidates in the polls, was again wiped out in Penang and all its parliamentary candidates lost, too.

The question now is, should Najib be bound by this MCA's internal electoral strategy that had gone awry when he assembles his new cabinet, expected over the next few days?

What kind of a cabinet is it if it does not have a minister from MCA for the first time ever, and a 1Malaysia Cabinet at that? All the six Chinese candidates who contested under the Sarawak United Peoples Party (SUPP) ticket, the other Chinese-based party in BN, also lost to their DAP opponents.

The cabinet would also be quite un-Malaysian without a Chinese minister. Now the MCA is still left with seven winning MPs, including incumbent Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai and Deputy Education Minister Datuk Dr Wee Ka Siong, among others, who could fill up the MCA's usual quota of four ministers.

The tsunami unleashed during this 13th general election also just goes to show that the Chinese electorate would have no hesitation whatsoever to vote for a change if they want to. The Opposition rallying call this time was "Ubah" (change) and the vast majority of Chinese had made up their minds to vote against BN long before polling day.

This time, the BN was saved from defeat largely by the support still intact from Sabah and Sarawak, as Pakatan Rakyat further entrenched its position in Selangor and Penang, two of Malaysia's richest states, by winning more seats.

How else would one explain the most surprising defeat of outgoing Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam? He had shifted from a state to a parliamentary seat and lost by over 6,000 votes majority in the process.

Ali Rustam has been chief minister for 13 years and widely acknowledged as the country's most hands-on leader of a state government and credited for Malacca being accorded a developed status in 2010.

As it turns out, Ali Rustam's Bukit Katil parliamentary constituency has 42 % Chinese voters and he lost because of them.

"I am completely disappointed with my defeat which is due to racial politics. It seems the people are ungrateful for all the government's efforts at developing Malacca into what it is today," he said in his first reaction to the defeat that scuttled his promising political career and plans to serve at the federal level.

Shortly after the BN obtained a simple majority that enabled it to be returned to power in the early hours of yesterday, Najib spoke of wanting to start the process of reconciliation to fight the growing trends of polarisation that emerged from the election.

He said his agenda was aimed at checking extremism and unhealthy racism and where policies would be based on the principles of moderation.

Because of the overwhelming and indisputable support given by the Chinese to the DAP, would it be conceivable to expect the prime minister at any time in the future to extend an olive branch to the party to join a government of national unity in line with his reconciliation agenda?

"Peace and racial harmony in the context of national unity are something which the BN values very much," said Najib.

Granted the swing of Chinese votes is a strong wave in favour of DAP and its Pakatan allies, the MCA itself went into this election with some highly questionable strategies especially relating to winnable candidates.

Ex-MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat initially had the personal backing of Najib himself and the prime minister took time off to attend an event in his Pandan constituency before nomination day in a show of support.

But he was unceremoniously dropped from the candidates' list in a move that could only be described as irrational, as was Datuk Seri Dr Ng Yen Yen, the outgoing minister of tourism, who was the first woman in MCA to have been elected party vice-president.

What now for this beleaguered party after being mauled at the polls? Does it still want to go ahead with being excluded from Najib's new cabinet line-up just to show that it means business in keeping with its promise?

Its leaders must put their egos aside to think again and think hard.

Fortress Johor stands

Posted: 06 May 2013 11:59 AM PDT

The evidence, it would appear, is clear that the second-largest majority race in Malaysia will not support BN, which has continued to endorse extremist groups like Perkasa.

What then would this mean to the Chinese community in Malaysia?

Pauline Wong, The Sun Daily

FORTRESS Johor has remained unbroken. While the Barisan Nasional (BN) performed worse in Sunday's polls than ever before in the southern state, the state rule and majority in parliamentary seats is still BN's to boast.

Johor, for all intents and purposes, has not changed – Umno's birthplace is still its pride, and loyalty to the ruling coalition remains at a high of 38 out of 56 state seats and 21 out of 26 parliamentary seats won.

But while the 'Johor way' remains unchanged, the ripple effect that this state may have on the rest of the nation could be staggering.

As much as racial sentiments are a bitter pill to swallow, for such sentiments should have no place in a multi-racial and multi-religious nation, it would seem quite overwhelmingly that the cracks are the fault of a 'Chinese tsunami', as mentioned by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak in his winning speech yesterday morning.

And this massive Chinese swing was arguably felt very strongly in Johor.

MCA candidates in Kluang, Kulai and Bakri were defeated by DAP, and the Chinese-majority seat of Gelang Patah (usually contested by MCA but swapped with Umno this time) also fell to DAP.

Labis was won by MCA's Chua Tee Yong by a hair's breadth of a mere 353 votes, and Tanjong Piai was lost by a 5,000-vote majority.

BN, even Umno, won with reduced majorities in many of the seats, some by just a few thousand.

It would seem the Chinese community has turned its back on BN and MCA, giving DAP the biggest Johor win its had in decades with a solid four out of six parliamentary seats it contested here, and 11 out of 12 state seats. DAP only lost the Paloh state seat, and that was by a whisker of 103 votes.

Nationwide, DAP also emerged to be the top performer of the three parties in the opposition coalition of Pakatan Rakyat (PR), winning 38 out of 51 parliamentary seats it contested (10 more than in 2008), and taking a clean sweep in all parliamentary seats contested in Perak, Negri Sembilan and Penang.

The evidence, it would appear, is clear that the second-largest majority race in Malaysia will not support BN, which has continued to endorse extremist groups like Perkasa.

What then would this mean to the Chinese community in Malaysia?

With MCA so far holding on to its 'threat' of not taking any Cabinet posts if it performed poorer than in 2008, what of Chinese representation in the government?

And since MCA has lost many of its much-needed seats in Johor – previously its fortress – does this mean the Chinese will have no place in the BN government?

Also, with the mostly-Chinese DAP now being the dominant party in PR, what would this mean to the coalition, which was previously dominated by the multi-racial PKR? A bitter pill to swallow, indeed.

But yet, we have to take a closer look, for first appearances are deceiving, and these questions may need never actually be answered.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the Chinese tsunami may be nothing more than a 'convenient' scape goat for the poor support of BN.

The ruling coalition also lost eight more parliamentary seats than in 2008, and some of its prominent names such as Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ali Rustam, Transport Minister Datuk Seri Kong Cho Ha, Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman, Deputy Education Minister Dr Puad Zarkashi, Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Seri Donald Lim and Federal Territories Minister Datuk Seri Raja Nong Chik were defeated.

Perkasa leaders Datuk Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin, who have been reported many times in the press making remarks which are deemed racist and insensitive, also lost in Pasir Mas and Shah Alam respectively.

Urban areas like Selangor and Penang were retained by PR easily, while urban seats in the mostly-rural Sabah and Sarawak were also won over by PR, and wherever there was a surge of young voters like in Selangor, PR swept easy victory.

So looking at it, the overall picture paints something quite different.

Malaysians began by turning up to vote in unprecedented numbers – Election Commission (EC) puts the voter turnout as over 80% for this GE.

Youth involvement in the election was overwhelming as social media was awash with updates, posts, discussions, debates and comments from this generation. Twitter and Facebook feeds were faster with updates than official sources like the EC.

The number of young voters, previously thought to be apathetic and apolitical, made up about 2.3 million of 13.3 million eligible voters, about 600,000 higher than in 2008.

Malaysians, overall, rejected candidates who are known to make racist and sexist remarks. Malaysians also voted out candidates who had supported policy decisions like the Automated Enforcement System (AES) in which its implementation had not been transparent.

Voters also showed that a government and officials consistently plagued by allegations of corruption and abuse of power would have to face the consequences unless it buckled down and took serious action.

Voters also proved that a state government that has not taken care of its people will be voted out.

In the end, on Sunday night, Malaysian voters proved that democracy is alive and well – not because the government of the day 'allowed' it, but because the rakyat willed it.

Hopefully, the prime minister hears the clarion message the people are telling via their voice in the ballot box, and introduces more initiatives to address their concerns, win back their hearts and check the sliding support for BN.

Kredit: www.malaysia-today.net

Selasa, 7 Mei 2013

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

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