Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- The end of Machiavellianism (WITH CHINESE TRANSLATION)
- Pakatan out to create a bigger tsunami
- Pakatan still can't shoot straight on dissolution day
- Anwar needs 20 seats, will Sabah deliver?
- The fight over fertile lands (WITH CHINESE TRANSLATION)
- GE13: A marathon, but a race for ‘sprinters’
- GE13: What comes after dissolution?
| The end of Machiavellianism (WITH CHINESE TRANSLATION) Posted: 04 Apr 2013 06:27 PM PDT
I believe that many doubts have been cleared with Najib's recent declaration (that BN won't cling on the power should they lose). The people should now be able to vote as they please without feeling threatened and stressed. And since BN has made its promise, PR should in turn make the same promise that if they lose in their states they will ensure a smooth transfer of power (especially to control some of their fanatical, over-obsessive supporters who have the potential of causing troubles). "Should Barisan National lose in the coming election, will they surrender their power peacefully?"
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| Pakatan out to create a bigger tsunami Posted: 04 Apr 2013 04:16 PM PDT
There are about 37.7 per cent Chinese votes in Perak and most of them support Pakatan Rakyat. However, Pakatan Rakyat needs to fight for the 48.59 per cent Malay votes to win the state and more parliamentary seats. And Anwar is the ace to attract Malay votes. Lim Sue Goan, Sin Chew Daily Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said he intends to leave Penang and contest in Perak, showing that Pakatan Rakyat has made a careful deployment for the focal states in the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. There was an announcement earlier saying that DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang will leave Perak to contest in Johor. The move was intended to create a momentum and set off a tsunami from the southern peninsula. And there must be important leaders in the north to make the deployment sound. If Pakatan Rakyat is able to seize Johor, PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub is expected to be the candidate for state mentri besar. Pakatan Rakyat has no preferred chief minister candidate in Malacca. In Negri Sembilan, however, PAS and the PKR have their respective preferred candidates, namely Seremban PKR deputy chief Dr Mohamad Rafie Abdul Malek and PAS central committee member Dr Rosli Yaakob. Although there was a rumour earlier saying that PKR president Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail would contest in Selangor, she later decided not to contest for any seats. However, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali will continue contesting in Selangor. After Lim Kit Siang left Perak to contest in Johor, Anwar shifted to contest in the state to stabilise the situation and fight for Malay votes, with an attempt to take revenge on the BN for seizing the state administration in February 2009. There are about 37.7 per cent Chinese votes in Perak and most of them support Pakatan Rakyat. However, Pakatan Rakyat needs to fight for the 48.59 per cent Malay votes to win the state and more parliamentary seats. And Anwar is the ace to attract Malay votes. If Anwar contests in Perak, he can help improve the winning odds of some parliamentary seats. With more parliamentary seats, there will be a greater chance to seize Putrajaya. It is generally predicted that since Anwar is going to contest in Perak, PKR would then be Pakatan Rakyat's leading party in the state. If Pakatan Rakyat is able to win the state, the mentri besar should then be a PKR member. However, it is impossible for PAS grassroots to give up the post. In the Perak regime change, the relationship between former state Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin and the Malay Ruler has changed and thus, it is difficult for him to be the mentri besar again. In Penang, half of the total voters are Chinese. It is not a big problem for Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng to keep the regime. In Kedah, Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Abdul Razak's performance is poor and has been receiving resistance from the state's grassroots. Therefore, it is rumoured that PAS would field its vice-president Datuk Mahfuz Omar to contest in Kedah to pave the way for the replacement of the mentri besar. Pakatan Rakyat also has preferred mentri besar candidates in Perlis and state PAS deputy president Mohd Anuar Tahir receives the greatest support. In a recent interview with Sin Chew Daily, Lim Kit Siang predicted that Pakatan Rakyat would be able to seize another two state regimes in the 13th general election, namely Negri Sembilan and Perlis. Therefore, the focal states in the west coast of peninsula, together with Kelantan, Pakatan Rakyat is trying to build a "Great Wall" and if they are linked together, it might trigger a larger tsunami. One thing that should not be forgotten is that during the 2008 general election, Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat leaders focused their election campaign activities in the west coast of the peninsula in the last few days before polling day and it resulted in a tsunami, causing a regime change in Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah, while winning 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats in Kuala Lumpur. And now, Pakatan Rakyat is using the old trick with more energetic candidates and a more sophisticated deployment. It seems like Pakatan Rakyat's plan to seize Putrajaya is not limited to an empty talk. The election campaign is expected to be more and more exciting.
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| Pakatan still can't shoot straight on dissolution day Posted: 04 Apr 2013 03:54 PM PDT
CYNICAL fools hounded and pounded the Prime Minister for years with inane and insane bunk on why he should dissolve the Dewan Rakyat prematurely – to the Opposition's advantage of course. Nevertheless, the misanthropic guesswork that preceded yesterday's dissolution was diabolical: Opposition leaders goaded the PM to announce D-Day on almost every quarter since 2011, hoping an earlier snap election could convert their March 8, 2008 concessions into bigger gains. Azmi Anshar, NST But Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak dismissed the contemptuous bait-and-switch tactics by focusing on an unstoppable momentum to further advance the nation's socio-economic fortunes that has defined his administration. So, it was easy for him to ignore the Opposition hogwash that whined incessantly about a dissolution that didn't arrive to their convenience and one that went beyond the emblematic March 8 date. But when he finally did yesterday, it was Najib's sentimentality that guided the decision – the live telecast to announce Parliamentary dissolution also marked the fourth anniversary of his swearing-in as PM. Who would have thought? Nevertheless, the misanthropic guesswork that preceded yesterday's dissolution was diabolical: Opposition leaders goaded the PM to announce D-Day on almost every quarter since 2011, hoping an earlier snap election could convert their March 8, 2008 concessions into bigger gains. When Najib refused to even nibble their bait, the opposition denounced him "cowardly" but when it was obvious that Najib would look beyond March 8, his March 8 snub was "shameless." Despite the constitutionality of his actions, Najib still endured claims of illegitimacy, no less than by the biggest cynic of them all, Lim Kit Siang. Lim's sneers was hypocritical: if illegitimacy and not legality was the imperilled issue, then he should have ensured that the Pakatan Rakyat state governments of Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Selangor dissolve on March 8 as a mark of "virtuous principle." Was it a surprise that he didn't? Lim blasé argument that Najib had lost moral legitimacy and credibility after March 8 was as flaccid as his jowls. Wouldn't the status of his son the Penang chief minister and the other Pakatan mentris besar be just as morally illegitimate and incredible? The response to Lim's cynical calculation was whooping incredulity that recognised Lim's familiar theatrics cannoning off cynical hyperbole in sound-bite loops that repeats itself to fit his self-preservation. Like his son, Kit Siang would forever – even if he unthinkably ever held Federal power – assumed the bunker mentality of paranoid victimology that suspects lurking dissenters in every nook and corner desperate to sack them from their hypocritically dynastic high horses. However, in the father-son tag team, their paranoia is actually valid: everywhere you go, conscientious DAP state and branch leaders have rebelled so greatly that Guan Eng will now realise that Penang is no walkover and Kit Siang risks political seppuku in Gelang Patah. But why would Lim Kit Siang and son, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his Pas' ilk, these people bray for rule of law, hyperventilate at the thought of a Government optimising its five-year constitutional tenure? Simple: this longest stint recorded is as long as the rope that the PKR, DAP and Pas used to hang themselves as they bicker, backstab and undercut in such juxtaposing bedlam, chronicled assiduously in 30 ways by Anwar's former lawyer, Datuk Zulkifli Noordin, in his blog. Just a sample of Zulkifli's censure of Pakatan's daft potboilers leads to another cynical theme: anything less than the takeover of Putrajaya will deem GE13 as being fraught with fraud and irregularity. Anwar and his minions have harped on the idea of uncontrollable street demonstrations if Pakatan fails to grab Putrajaya on the delusion that majority of Malaysians will vote for them. In the euphoria of that delusion, Pakatan entered into a paradox of sorts when they proclaimed in their Hail Mary general election manifesto that they will ensure a free and fair election once they win Putrajaya. Hold on! If they win, then wouldn't the general election conducted by the Election Commission be more than fair! So why keep carping on a fraud poll? Other than Pakatan implying that they will win elections which themselves rigged, such incontinent self-flattery is the textbook excuse to justify their continued existence even after the majority voted them out fair and square. But for the likes of Pakatan Rakyat's scandal-prone, infirmed, cynical and uncouth leaders, losing objectively and equitably is a nightmare that will truly expose their Orwellian characters and hurtle them down the road to oblivion and, heaven forbid, retirement. |
| Anwar needs 20 seats, will Sabah deliver? Posted: 03 Apr 2013 03:39 PM PDT The only person standing between Anwar Ibrahim and the Prime Minister's chair is Musa Aman. Selvaraja Somiah, FMT Today, the only state which stands between Anwar Ibrahim and the Prime Minister's chair is Sabah. And the person who can "stop" Anwar from becoming the Prime Minister is Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman. Anwar needs at least 20 parliamentary seats out of the 25 in Sabah for him to achieve his dream of becoming Malaysia's seventh premier. But Musa controls the bulk of the parliamentary seats in Sabah. In the 2008 general election, he steered the Barisan Nasional coalition to win all but one parliamentary seat and that too without calling in any central leader from the party to the campaign trail. Anwar-led Pakatan Rakyat and its major and minor cohorts in the media have carefully indulged in systematic campaign to character assassinate Musa. One of the easiest slurs to assassinate the character of the person is by branding him corrupt and a womaniser. But the argument that Musa is corrupt is shallow and the opposition front is aware of this fact. Historically, corruption in Malaysia has always been connected to both government and opposition. Both sides are equally corrupted. But they repeatedly use the corruption card for obvious reasons. In the present day, using the same card to discredit Musa has become over-played, and if we allow such divisive politics to succeed, we can only shudder at the future of this nation. Victorious Musa According to a Pakatan strategist, the coalition is pulling no stops and has created an entire "stop-Musa" machinery by roping in all sorts of activists, media persons and disgruntled Umno Sabah elements. But if Sabah BN wins a majority of the state seats and Musa is returned as chief minister, then let no doubt remain that this will be the biggest danger to Pakatan and local players Sabah Progressive Peoples Party (SAPP) and the State Reform Party (STAR).
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| The fight over fertile lands (WITH CHINESE TRANSLATION) Posted: 02 Apr 2013 06:57 PM PDT
DAP and PKR both pride themselves as multiracial parties. But in reality, they can only battle in the scarce Chinese-dominated areas to make their grounds. With Gelang Patah given to Lim Keat Siang, DAP has essentially 'conquered' all Chinese-dominated areas (in Johor). As for PKR, who also has to depend on Chinese votes, it has practically been sentenced to death. Hence, how can you believe that there won't be a fight between these two parties? Original text by Tay Tian Yan, Asst. Chief Editor, SinChew Daily Translated text by Gilbert Yeoh-Tan The way I see it, the internal fight between DAP and PKR over Johor is no less vigorous than their external fight with Barisan National. Johor has 26 parliamentary seats and 56 state seats; and during last election, Pakatan Rakyat had been unable to come up with candidates to fill all those seats. It puzzles a lot to see that they dig only around the belly button while there are indeed many seats. To quote a Chinese idiom, 'to stick a popsicle in one's belly button ---- pain to the last nerve in one's heart', would be how PR supporters would feel over the fighting. After all, Johor is PR's unharvested land where many supporters put high hopes on. According to a PR strategist, if PR can win 35% of Malay votes, 80% of Chinese, and 50% of Indian, they stand a very good chance of securing 20 parliamentary seats. That should be able to push PR to winning 112 seats in total, which will then allow them to march into Putrajaya to form a new government. Johor's voter structure, in theory, adds advantage to PR. Johor is a typical mixed area that witnesses a more evenly-distributed voter structure than other states: Malay voters contribute to 53.7% of the voting population, Chinese 38.8%, and Indian 6.6%. Furthermore, the geographical distribution is also an even one. It is true that Selangor and Perak have more Chinese voters, but the percentages of Chinese voters vary marginally among different seats, for example, 82% of Ipoh East voters are Chinese whereas only 6% of Larut voters are Chinese; There are no such cases in Johor. In theory, DAP and PKR are multiracial parties. With recent PAS's declaration as a 'Party for all races', this combination, in theory (sorry for the repeated usage of the word 'theory'), should perform better in mixed seats as they are able to harness votes from all races. If the above are true, we can then safely derive that Johor is ready to be the next PR state, and, with 20 parliamentary seats at hand, that PR can also march for Putrajaya to replace BN. The problem is, theory and reality, they often differ vastly. Johor is indeed an untouched land. However, as of today, it would appear that the only cultivatable areas for PR are areas with high percentage of Chinese voters. Among the 26 seats, there are only Kulai, Bakri, and Gelang Patah that have more than 50% of Chinese voters. Kluang comes close to 50%, it has 49.2%. These 4 are PR's winnable seats. For all other seats, PR has shown lack of confidence. For areas with less than 40% of Chinese voters, PR has practically given up the fights and let BN do as it pleases. DAP and PKR both pride themselves as multiracial parties. But in reality, they can only battle in the scarce Chinese-dominated areas to make their ground. With Gelang Patah given to Lim Keat Siang, DAP has essentially 'conquered' all Chinese-dominated areas (in Johor). As for PKR, who also has to depend on Chinese votes, it has practically been sentenced to death. How, then, can you believe that there won't be a fight between these two parties? Undoubtedly, Johor has many seats. But for PR, Malay-dominated area are merely 'barren lands' that they won't consider setting foot on whereas Chinese-dominated are 'fertile lands' that they can win without even the slightest efforts; there are a lot of 'barren lands' that attract little interests, but only a mere handful of 'fertile lands' that evoke brutal fights among allies. This is the grievance of Malaysia's politics. No matter how loudly a party vows to become 'multiracial', it would end up focusing on one ethnic for its votes. PR has been preaching on diversity and working together across all races. This is indeed a refreshing new direction that most voters will heed. But, in the end, it is what it is ---- an idea with no concrete action. DAP and PKR should therefore ask themselves: if they are indeed as multiracial as they preach, why then they haven't even the slightest confidence to win even 30% of the Malays' votes? If they both can practice what they preach, bringing their ideas to the grassroots, backing up their promotions with concrete actions (for example, have more people from other races taking up senior positions or participating in decision-making processes), then they definitely can take one step up and win more votes from all races. Only by then will they see 'fertile lands' everywhere, and no longer will they have to fight to the death over Chinese seats! ******************************************** 鄭丁賢‧肥田和瘦田之爭 以行動黨和公正黨今天在柔州的廝殺情況，慘烈程度不下於和國陣的對壘。 柔州有26個國會，56個州席；上屆大選，很多席位是半夜敲鑼都找不到人出來競選。 議席那麼多，怎麼就是往肚臍眼裡鑽，斗成一團……，不，更傳神的中文諺語說，是肚臍眼裡插冰棒――心寒；很多民聯支持者為此難過。 畢竟，柔佛是民聯的一塊處女地，是支持者寄望之所在。 一位民聯的策略師盤算說，一旦民聯得到35%的馬來選票，80%華人票，50%印人票，那麼，將可以奪下20個國會議席。 他認為，這20個夢幻議席，正好可以把民聯的國席推高到112席以上，直奔布特拉再也，執政中央。 況且，柔佛州的選民結構，理論上對民聯有利。 柔佛是典型的混合選區，各族人民的選票分佈比其它州更加平均；平均數字，馬來選民是53.7%，華人38.8%，印人6.6%。 各族選民的地理分佈相當均勻；雪州和霹靂固然族群比率也相當平均，但馬來選區和華人選區落差很大，譬如，霹州有華人高達82%的怡保東區，也有華人只有6%的拉律，這是柔佛沒有的情況。 理論上（又是理論），民聯3黨之中，行動黨和公正黨都是多元族群政黨，而伊斯蘭黨又打起"全民政黨＂的形象，這種組合，理論上（對不起，又重覆了），最適合套用在混合選區，因為3黨應該獲得不同族群的共同支持。 如此看來，柔州豈非已準備成立下一任民聯州政府，而且20個國會議席也將手到擒來，布城在望？ 問題是，理論和現實不符。 柔州固然是處女地，然而，到目前為止，能夠開墾的，看來看去，只有華人票顯著的議席。 26個國席，華人佔50%以上的，只有峇吉里、古來、振林山，勉強加入居鑾（49.2%）；這些是民聯有勝算的議席。 其它華人票低於50%的選區，民聯本身都缺乏信心，至於華人票低於40%的選區，根本不必搶，要的話儘管拿去。 行動黨和公正黨雖然都自認為多元族群政黨，但是，卻都要搶華人選區，在少數議席中尋求棲身之地。 民聯把振林山給了林吉祥，等於行動黨佔據了所有華人選區，同樣必須靠華人票吃糊的公正黨，如今只能喝西北風；於是，兩黨豈能不斗。 的確，柔佛議席很多，問題是，對民聯而言，馬來選區是瘦田，很難開墾，華人選區是肥田，不墾也可能有收獲。瘦田很多，乏人問津；肥田很少，搶成一團。 其實，這也是大馬政治的悲哀。不論政黨如何高喊多元族群政治，然而，大家都要往單元族群裡搶票。 民聯提出多元理念，確實指出一個新的方向，也讓人民多了一重選擇；但是，單有理念是不夠的。行動黨和公正黨都應該自問，既然它們是多元族群政黨，為甚麼連30%的馬來選票都沒有信心？ 如果它能夠坐言起行，過去好好在基層推廣它的理念，也用實際行動證明本身的多元性，包括在領導層和組織裡容納更多不同族群，那麼，或許它能更上層樓，獲得多元族群的支持。 如此，肥田處處，又何必在華人選區自相廝殺！ |
| GE13: A marathon, but a race for ‘sprinters’ Posted: 02 Apr 2013 05:13 PM PDT
The writing "was clearly on the wall" the day after GE12 in March 2008. Umno/BN would have to reinvent and position itself as a genuine "centrist" party if it was to "recover lost ground" next time — and certainly if it were to have any serious chance of a convincing victory by 2013. Clive Kessler, TMI In two recent published political commentaries, I have drawn two perhaps fanciful comparisons. First, I remarked that the underlying form or structure of the Malaysian "body politic", beginning with the Constitution, was basically sound. But, I added, that the body now needed some "good tailoring", a new "suit" of "political clothing" — some new arrangements that might enable that body to appear respectably, and with dignity, in public. Next I suggested that the predicament of Umno/BN today, on the eve of GE13, is a bit like that of a sailor whose good fortune has recently deserted him. Like a sailor who has long been accustomed to sailing with the wind behind him, pushing him with its great power in the direction that he wants to go Suddenly the world has changed, the wind had shifted. Umno/BN now needs to "do things tough". It needs to sail across, and even to learn to "tack" into, the wind. That is hard sailing. And that kind of "political sailing" is not something that Umno people know how to do. Nor is it a challenge that they are happy about having to face, a skill that they are eager now to master. It goes beyond what they know. It is beyond their "comfort zone". Let me now introduce a third parallel, another "kias", a new "ibarat". In Australia the great sporting event of the year is the Melbourne Cup. It is a distance race, over two miles. It is a race for stayers, not sprinters. Everybody hopes that the race "is run truly". Meaning, that it is a tough and keenly contested race all the way. If it is, a good stayer wins. That is how it is supposed to be. But sometimes it is not. The horses "loaf along" for a mile and a half, with no horse or rider keen to "make the running". Then, suddenly, for the last half-mile it is a mad rush. A mad rush and a disappointing spectacle. Disappointing because a sprinter, not a tried and proven stayer, will win if the race is competitive only in its concluding stages. Malaysian elections, and especially this long awaited GE13, are a bit like that. The nation has been "in election mode" for five years. The writing "was clearly on the wall" the day after GE12 in March 2008. Umno/BN would have to reinvent and position itself as a genuine "centrist" party if it was to "recover lost ground" next time — and certainly if it were to have any serious chance of a convincing victory by 2013. But, as it dithered, and as hard-line Malay ethno-supremacist groups like Perkasa seized the initiative, Umno lost its chance to do that. It flubbed. It "wimped out". It decided, under that hard-line Malay pressure, to "shore up" its Malay base first. Moderation could come later, much later — if at all, if ever. Prudence, inspired by a sense of weakness and fear, not courage prevailed. And ever since Najib Razak succeeded as prime minister, he has had his "weather eye" keenly focused on whether a favourable moment might present itself for him to call an election: to gain a personal mandate, give his leadership some real popular legitimacy — and to refresh that of Umno at the same time. But the favourable moment never came. As it failed to arrive, Najib temporized. Sure, he launched his alphabetic onslaught to suggest a dynamic agenda, to create the appearance of some genuine momentum. But it was all stodgy, "top down", prosaically managerialist stuff that did not fire the popular imagination — and could hardly have been expected to do so. So now we find ourselves five years on from GE12 and almost five years on from when the current parliament first convened. Its automatic expiry date, its democratic "use-by date", is almost nigh. At long last, the election has been called. And now that it has been, it will be a "12-day wonder." A bit like the English summer. You go to the cinema one afternoon, see a movie, and when you come out you find that you have missed it. So after being on an election footing under Najib's "watch" for almost four years, we find that the race has yet again become a test not of true political "stayers", not the marathon that it seems, but once again a hectic sprint. A mad last-minute rush to the line. A rush that here works massively to the advantage of the contestant who knows when the rush is to begin – because that contestant alone has the ability to trigger it. So what kind of election will it be? There are many aspects, many dimensions to note, and different commentators highlight different features. The dirtiest ever, say some. The most keenly contested of all time, say others. The most difficult to fathom, because of the unprecedented role to be played by new voters and new media, say others. All these ideas and characterizations have merit. To end this brief comment, I wish to suggest something else — a view or idea that comes from taking "the long view" of modern Malay politics and Malaysian political history. Back to the stayers' race.
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| GE13: What comes after dissolution? Posted: 02 Apr 2013 04:31 PM PDT
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has called for the elections, after the King consented to the dissolution of Parliament. What's next? Razak Ahmad, The Star The wait for the dissolution of Parliament is finally over and now, a chain of events will take place within the next 60 days under a fixed timetable that will culminate in polling day at the 13th general election. According to Article 55(4) of the Federal Constitution, whenever Parliament is dissolved, a general election will be held within 60 days of and Parliament shall be summoned to meet on a date not later than 120 days from that date. The first step that will now take place following the announcement of the dissolution of Parliament is for the Speaker of Parliament to notify the Election Commission (EC) that a dissolution has occurred and to request that general elections be held. Similar notices will also be submitted by the respective state legislative assembly Speakers to the Commission to inform the EC of the dissolution of the respective legislatures. The EC will then announce the date that it will hold a meeting to decide and announce the dates for both parliamentary and state elections. The dates are for nomination; advance voting for military and police personnel and their spouses; postal balloting both locally for qualified voters such as certain personnel and EC workers as well as Malaysians abroad; followed by polling day for the rest of the country's 13.3 million voters. With the Dewan Rakyat dissolved Wednesday, a 60-day time limit to polling day would mean that the last date upon which voting must be done is approximately on June 3. EC chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof had, however, said earlier that the EC would try to hold parliamentary and state polls simultaenously. This, he added, would mean that he would try as best as possible to ensure that polling takes place by May 28 which is within the 60-day period following the dissolution of the Negri Sembilan legislative assembly on March 28. Apart from the 60-day limit, the fixing of dates for nomination and polling is also governed under the Elections (Conduct of Elections) Regulations, 1981. According to the Regulation, the date of nomination must be no less than four days after a notice of dissolution of Parliament of State Assembly is issued. The date for advance voting, meanwhile, must be no less than seven days after nomination, while polling day must be no earlier than three days after the date of advance voting. The whole process from nomination to polling requires 10 days and the EC has said that it would set a campaign period of no shorter than 11 days for the upcoming election. At the last general election in 2008, the EC held a meeting two days following the dissolution of Parliament on Feb 13 that year and fixed March 8 for polling, giving a period of 25 days between dissolution and polling.
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