Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
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| Can early polls stabilise the country? Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:46 PM PDT
As it stands, even if Umno-BN keeps its job, Najib may lose his job if he can only deliver some 120-130 seats, apparently the number estimated by all government intelligence sources. Now, can you naively expect a transition within UMNO to be without fireworks and fanfare? Wong Chin Huat (Selangor Times) The Economist ("No Time Like Tomorrow, Oct 6, http://www.economist.com/node/21564248 ) is right in a way to compare Datuk Seri Najib Razak to former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown who lost the election he called too late. A former academic-turn-politician friend of mine who follows British politics closely has said the same for quite some time. I, however, beg to disagree with The Economist that the delay in polls has resulted in heightened partisanship which poisons the national politics. This is in fact a premise that must be examined. Many Malaysians who have suffered political fatigue – especially the business sector – have been calling for elections to be over and done with as soon as possible. Some really hope that the so-called politicking will return to its pre-2008 level. Allow me to pour some cold water: nothing could be more unrealistic than that. The apolitical or depoliticised Malaysia – which Tun Abdul Razak dreamed of – is gone forever and will not return. Having tasted freedom, those tsunami-waken Malaysians are not going back to any illusion of soft authoritarianism. This means any public policies, legislations or development projects forced down the throat of the stakeholders will be vigorously opposed. Not just PAA and Section 14A of the Evidence Act. Not just Kuantan, Bukit Koman, Jalan Sultan (Kuala Lumpur) and Pengerang. As Najib himself recognises, the years the government knows best is gone. Of course, the heightening political tension is caused not just by democratisation. The greater factor is our collective failure to deal with democratisation: this country is moving away from the electoral one-party it has been for nearly 40 years before 2008 but there is not yet a national consensus to accept this new political reality. If there is indeed a national consensus, like that in Myanmar, that democratisation is the order of the day, then an early election will certainly help. The winners will have the mandate to carry out unfinished work or new tasks, while the losers will serve as the loyal opposition and work for a better electoral fortune in the future. But there is none. The abuse of state apparatus to punish opposition supporters and to defame Bersih activists, the rise of political violence, the powerlessness of the police before political thugs - all these just show that the old political system is resisting its demise. What will happen after elections? It really depends on the process and the outcome. First of all, if there is widespread or significant rigging, the public will not stomach that. Secondly, if there is only a slim majority for the winners, if not outright a hung parliament, there may be attempts to entice and counter defections. An affirmative answer to the first question may possibly lead to revolution ala people power, re-election or chronic instability. An affirmative answer to the second question may lead to re-election, coup, counter-coup and/or chronic instability. Will early elections prevent either electoral fraud or an evenly split election? I cannot see how. If there is a likely relation between these and the timing, the direction may well be the opposite. The longer we wait for elections, the more new voters may be registered, and the likelier their votes may offset those of foreigners and phantoms. Also, the longer we wait, the likelier Malaysians may get fed up enough to persuade each other to vote in one direction, hence preventing a hung parliament or a government with a slim majority. But really there is no end to political tensions, political persecution and political violence unless our political class grow mature enough to accept the embryonic two-party system. We need the winners to pledge no persecution of the losers and the losers to pledge their acceptance of the outcome. As it stands, even if Umno-BN keeps its job, Najib may lose his job if he can only deliver some 120-130 seats, apparently the number estimated by all government intelligence sources. Now, can you naively expect a transition within UMNO to be without fireworks and fanfare?
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| Political miscalculations of PAS-Umno saga Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:22 PM PDT
The writings on the wall indicate the PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to the Pakatan. Ali Cordoba (Free Malaysia Today) After the 1999 general election, some pro-Umno newspapers hailed a possible Umno-PAS merger, calling it the "union" of the future for the Malay-majority community in the country. PAS has since then been on the threshold of a "real" possibility of re-joining the Barisan National. But at what cost will it take that plunge into Umno's arms? Before 1999 – the reformasi era – PAS was weak with only Kelantan remaining strong in its hands. But that, as we know it, was always an affair of the Kelantan PAS and not a result of any greatness in PAS' national leadership. The Kelantan PAS under Nik Aziz Nik Mat has remained until today the only one that has not been defeated by the Umno-BN machinery. It is the only state that slipped from the hands of Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Umno has never managed to wrest it back. On the national level, PAS has been boosted by its alliance with the reform movement launched by Anwar Ibrahim before his ISA arrest. It is known that the early leaders of the reform movement – many of whom have since returned to Umno – were setting up committees with the help of PAS to free Anwar from jail. PAS – at the national level – was hoping that these "reformasi" elements would join the party in droves and would leave Umno bare. Many did leave but their move to PAS was hijacked by the creation of the Justice Party, better known as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), in the aftermath of Anwar's beating and his infamous black eye. It could be said that without PKR and Anwar's trials and the calls for reform by the pro-Anwar elements in the country, PAS would have remained a "Kelantan champion" and the party would have had little impact nationally. Those who joined the "tsunami" of the reform movement did so because they saw an opportunity to make personal gains. The 2008 political tsunami swept the country in five states. Among these cunning politicians who joined the reformasi movement, many have since been ejected from the movement, or were worn out by the lengthy fight for power or were attracted by the greed of easy comfort elsewhere. And PAS is bound to join them in this category if it were to jump ship at the last minute. The writings on the wall indicate that PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to Pakatan. PAS-DAP issue However, due to the nature of today's politics and the slippery political landscape in Malaysia, a PAS move towards Umno may not yield the expected result. A PAS-Umno alliance on the eve of the 13th general election may end up being an empty shell. The attacks by Shanon Ahmad and deputy mursyidul am of PAS, Harun Din, against the DAP and Anwar recently are signs of a crack within the PAS leadership. It also shows the impatience that has ruined the peace within PAS. It's clear that many among the PAS leadership do not approve of PAS working together with the DAP. But this opposition is probably based on the possibility that if this issue is exploited, then PAS would join Umno in the end. Read more at: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2012/10/19/political-miscalculations-of-pas-umno-saga/
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