Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
| Posted: 24 Oct 2012 02:50 PM PDT On the advice of my doctor, I've been avoiding stressful activities for several months. Now I feel sufficiently rested to start writing again. Just the other day, Selangor UMNO confidently predicted that it would win 32 seats in the upcoming General Election, while an UMNO Division leader from Kelantan told me that the Barisan Nasional already had 28 seats in the bag. These assessments by BN leaders are wildly unrealistic. Taken with the Prime Minister's desperate plan to dispense another round of cash handouts in January, I am now convinced more than ever that the Pakatan Rakyat will form the government after the next General Election. Elections are around the corner and in racing parlance the contestants are now "in the straight". In this last stretch, it's important for parties not to make mistakes. The winner will, in fact, be the one who makes the least number of errors during this last lap. The BN has an easier task in this respect because there are only one or two leaders who are allowed to speak for the Government. Most of the time it's the Prime Minister, who takes centre stage on TV and in the newspapers. Even Rosmah has been kept quiet and is less visible nowadays. Pakatan, on the other hand, is less structured, and Parliamentarians in the PR coalition can say anything they want. This can give rise to costly mistakes, unless they refrain themselves from making controversial statements, especially on Islamic issues. Three factors will, however, clinch the elections for Pakatan. One is the voters' current restless mood. They are tired of the wait – never has the people of this country waited for so long, and they have been dragged along like a puppet on a string by the Prime Minister. While the Westminster model gives the PM the discretion to dissolve Parliament, it was not placed there for him to show off this power. It was meant to enable the PM to call for elections when all participating parties are ready, and when other stakeholders like the election monitoring group and the police are ready. When all parties are ready a date should be announced a year or so before elections are held. This collective readiness will ensure the people's maximum participation, which will hopefully result in a genuine mandate for the next government. That's what the PM's discretion in fixing the date is for. It's not a trick to be used to gain an unfair advantage over opponents. It's not meant to be used as a tool to surprise, tire or bankrupt them. The BN will pay a heavy price for this dilly-dallying, as the people are not amused. The second factor in Pakatan's favour is their obvious strength in Peninsular Malaysia. With the exception of Johor and Melaka, BN parties are struggling everywhere. The state governments of the four Pakatan states have done well in the last four years, and there is no reason for them to lose. Lim Guan Eng and Khalid Ibrahim have shown incredible strength in managing the two important states, despite all of the BN's efforts to topple them. Pakatan are also making strong gains in Terengganu, Perak and even in Pahang. I believe they will have majority seats in the Peninsular and that should be enough for them to be in the comfortable front row to negotiate with East Malaysian Parliamentarians as to who should form the Federal Government. There is no love lost in politics.
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