Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- Can early polls stabilise the country?
- Political miscalculations of PAS-Umno saga
- AG report won’t affect voter mindset
- Is March GE too late for Najib?
| Can early polls stabilise the country? Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:46 PM PDT
As it stands, even if Umno-BN keeps its job, Najib may lose his job if he can only deliver some 120-130 seats, apparently the number estimated by all government intelligence sources. Now, can you naively expect a transition within UMNO to be without fireworks and fanfare? Wong Chin Huat (Selangor Times) The Economist ("No Time Like Tomorrow, Oct 6, http://www.economist.com/node/21564248 ) is right in a way to compare Datuk Seri Najib Razak to former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown who lost the election he called too late. A former academic-turn-politician friend of mine who follows British politics closely has said the same for quite some time. I, however, beg to disagree with The Economist that the delay in polls has resulted in heightened partisanship which poisons the national politics. This is in fact a premise that must be examined. Many Malaysians who have suffered political fatigue – especially the business sector – have been calling for elections to be over and done with as soon as possible. Some really hope that the so-called politicking will return to its pre-2008 level. Allow me to pour some cold water: nothing could be more unrealistic than that. The apolitical or depoliticised Malaysia – which Tun Abdul Razak dreamed of – is gone forever and will not return. Having tasted freedom, those tsunami-waken Malaysians are not going back to any illusion of soft authoritarianism. This means any public policies, legislations or development projects forced down the throat of the stakeholders will be vigorously opposed. Not just PAA and Section 14A of the Evidence Act. Not just Kuantan, Bukit Koman, Jalan Sultan (Kuala Lumpur) and Pengerang. As Najib himself recognises, the years the government knows best is gone. Of course, the heightening political tension is caused not just by democratisation. The greater factor is our collective failure to deal with democratisation: this country is moving away from the electoral one-party it has been for nearly 40 years before 2008 but there is not yet a national consensus to accept this new political reality. If there is indeed a national consensus, like that in Myanmar, that democratisation is the order of the day, then an early election will certainly help. The winners will have the mandate to carry out unfinished work or new tasks, while the losers will serve as the loyal opposition and work for a better electoral fortune in the future. But there is none. The abuse of state apparatus to punish opposition supporters and to defame Bersih activists, the rise of political violence, the powerlessness of the police before political thugs - all these just show that the old political system is resisting its demise. What will happen after elections? It really depends on the process and the outcome. First of all, if there is widespread or significant rigging, the public will not stomach that. Secondly, if there is only a slim majority for the winners, if not outright a hung parliament, there may be attempts to entice and counter defections. An affirmative answer to the first question may possibly lead to revolution ala people power, re-election or chronic instability. An affirmative answer to the second question may lead to re-election, coup, counter-coup and/or chronic instability. Will early elections prevent either electoral fraud or an evenly split election? I cannot see how. If there is a likely relation between these and the timing, the direction may well be the opposite. The longer we wait for elections, the more new voters may be registered, and the likelier their votes may offset those of foreigners and phantoms. Also, the longer we wait, the likelier Malaysians may get fed up enough to persuade each other to vote in one direction, hence preventing a hung parliament or a government with a slim majority. But really there is no end to political tensions, political persecution and political violence unless our political class grow mature enough to accept the embryonic two-party system. We need the winners to pledge no persecution of the losers and the losers to pledge their acceptance of the outcome. As it stands, even if Umno-BN keeps its job, Najib may lose his job if he can only deliver some 120-130 seats, apparently the number estimated by all government intelligence sources. Now, can you naively expect a transition within UMNO to be without fireworks and fanfare?
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| Political miscalculations of PAS-Umno saga Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:22 PM PDT
The writings on the wall indicate the PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to the Pakatan. Ali Cordoba (Free Malaysia Today) After the 1999 general election, some pro-Umno newspapers hailed a possible Umno-PAS merger, calling it the "union" of the future for the Malay-majority community in the country. PAS has since then been on the threshold of a "real" possibility of re-joining the Barisan National. But at what cost will it take that plunge into Umno's arms? Before 1999 – the reformasi era – PAS was weak with only Kelantan remaining strong in its hands. But that, as we know it, was always an affair of the Kelantan PAS and not a result of any greatness in PAS' national leadership. The Kelantan PAS under Nik Aziz Nik Mat has remained until today the only one that has not been defeated by the Umno-BN machinery. It is the only state that slipped from the hands of Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Umno has never managed to wrest it back. On the national level, PAS has been boosted by its alliance with the reform movement launched by Anwar Ibrahim before his ISA arrest. It is known that the early leaders of the reform movement – many of whom have since returned to Umno – were setting up committees with the help of PAS to free Anwar from jail. PAS – at the national level – was hoping that these "reformasi" elements would join the party in droves and would leave Umno bare. Many did leave but their move to PAS was hijacked by the creation of the Justice Party, better known as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), in the aftermath of Anwar's beating and his infamous black eye. It could be said that without PKR and Anwar's trials and the calls for reform by the pro-Anwar elements in the country, PAS would have remained a "Kelantan champion" and the party would have had little impact nationally. Those who joined the "tsunami" of the reform movement did so because they saw an opportunity to make personal gains. The 2008 political tsunami swept the country in five states. Among these cunning politicians who joined the reformasi movement, many have since been ejected from the movement, or were worn out by the lengthy fight for power or were attracted by the greed of easy comfort elsewhere. And PAS is bound to join them in this category if it were to jump ship at the last minute. The writings on the wall indicate that PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to Pakatan. PAS-DAP issue However, due to the nature of today's politics and the slippery political landscape in Malaysia, a PAS move towards Umno may not yield the expected result. A PAS-Umno alliance on the eve of the 13th general election may end up being an empty shell. The attacks by Shanon Ahmad and deputy mursyidul am of PAS, Harun Din, against the DAP and Anwar recently are signs of a crack within the PAS leadership. It also shows the impatience that has ruined the peace within PAS. It's clear that many among the PAS leadership do not approve of PAS working together with the DAP. But this opposition is probably based on the possibility that if this issue is exploited, then PAS would join Umno in the end. Read more at: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2012/10/19/political-miscalculations-of-pas-umno-saga/
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| AG report won’t affect voter mindset Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:48 PM PDT Political analysts say the report has little implication on BN's reputation and is not an indicator of the GE13 announcement. Alyaa Azhar, FMT Political analysts believe that the newly released Auditor-General's (AG) report will not play a big role in swinging votes to Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat. Political analyst James Chin felt that the unnecessary spending and wastage in the AG report will do little to affect public opinion. "There is nothing new in the report. Both sides seemingly provide ammunition for the other, whereby they will pick up whatever bad things left behind for the other. "The AG report will not place a major dent on BN," Chin further added. Mohammad Agus Yusoff, a UKM political science professor, said the increased government revenue mentioned in the report is good news for the country. However, he said that revenue collected by the government is only a matter of numbers. "The people don't really bother about the numbers but what is more crucial to them is whether the numbers really benefit them in their daily lives. "If it does benefit the people then it is a successful achievement for the government. The government should use this revenue as the medium to balance and pay off the national debt instead of adding more debt to the country," he added. Agus said the AG report is not instrumental in affecting voting trends. "In order for the people to vote a certain party, they have to feel the impact. They have to feel that they are actually getting something that will benefit them," he said. Parties should be accountable Regarding the issue of negligence and poorly managed projects which were highlighted in the report, Chin said that responsible parties should be held accountable. He said however little will be done to address the issue. "It is usually the same thing each time. People will be very noisy about it, the typical commotion ensues but then later everyone forgets about it," he said. Agus agreed. "So far there has not been any firm action taken against those who are responsible; so far there has not been any prosecution. "Usually in the initial phase, there will be noises here and there but after the noise dies down, there has not been any substantive action taken against those involved: Any follow-up action has never been done," he said. The AG report highlighted increased government revenue of 16.19% and improved ratings for many ministries and government agencies. However, along with the positive reports, there were also several issues of inefficient projects and wastage of public funds. For example, the military housing projects awarded to sub-par contractors and road construction projects in Sarawak which do not meet deadlines and are wanting in safety standards.
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| Is March GE too late for Najib? Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:32 PM PDT PM Najib has missed his best opportunity to hold the polls in March this year. By next March, he would have lost the element of surprise. Selena Tay, FMT All throughout this year, from January till now, it can be seen that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has got no clear strategy in regard to the general election. He will only call for the polls once he is sufficiently sure that he has gained the rakyat's support. Hence the second round of the RM500 cash aid to strengthen the people's support for him. This can only mean that after the first round of the cash aid, he is still not confident of the people's support and it is now extremely obvious that he is playing it by the ear. At first, most people were thinking that he was busy crafting a strategy and that he is the cautious type but his indecisiveness has shone through and revealed that he has no game plan after all. Now after announcing the second round of the RM500 cash aid and various goodies to be given out, he is again pondering the scenario of "before and after". He is now thinking whether to hold the polls after the goodies have been given out or before the goodies have been distributed. There are two schools of thought concerning this matter. This columnist has interviewed 11 people in Kuala Lumpur who are eligible for the cash aid and their response in regard to BR1M 2.0 can be summed up into two groups which will be categorised as Mr A and Mr B. Mr A said, "If the general election is held this year, it shows that the prime minister is insincere in regard to the goodies as he is just fishing for votes and so I will vote for Pakatan Rakyat. If the election is next year, I will vote for Najib as it means that he is sincere in giving because he gives the goodies to everyone although he is not sure whom we will vote." On the other hand, Mr B said, "If the polls are held this year, I will vote for Barisan Nasional as I am afraid I will not get the goodies next year if they were to know I voted for Pakatan. If the polls are held after I have obtained the cash aid, it is bye-bye to BN as I cannot be bothered with them anymore. This Budget 2013 is their zenith, their last hurrah, their final fling and therefore I will vote for Pakatan." To sum up:
The above results show that it is difficult to read people's mind as the results are evenly matched. Thus the results are inconclusive. There could be more people in the first group or more people in the second group whether the polls are held this year or next. Difficult to tell and it is this difficulty that Najib is facing now. However, the purpose of the survey above is to ascertain if the cash aid has any bearing on the voting patterns and is not done to predict election results. Still, there is yet a third group of people who will vote for Pakatan regardless of whether the polls are held this year or next. These people are of the opinion that they will get the cash aid whoever is the government of the day as the aid is from public funds – taxpayers' money and therefore the rakyat's money.
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