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Zaid stares into the GE crystal ball
Mat Sabu: Masih ramai keliru konsep ulama-profesional dalam PAS
WIKILEAKS: Perak coup: ‘A play of brute and refined force’
WikiLeaks Disclosures and Diplomacy
PAS duel: Kelantan vs Terengganu

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:34 PM PDT

The Kita boss predicts that Pakatan Rakyat may win fewer seats in the next polls, and share his views on BN winning back opposition-held states.

"I wanted the three parties to solve their problems. One way to solve this, is to have a single organisation. That is when you have to have the 'ketua' (chief), the 'timbalan' (deputy), the vice-president. You have to share power with the three parties. They never wanted to form a single party. Why do you think Anwar refused to form the shadow cabinet?"

Mariam Mokhtar, Free Malaysia Today

Having brushed off the criticisms which Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim levelled at him, Zaid Ibrahim then set out to explain how his party would contest in the next general election.

He aired his views on Pakatan Rakyat's chances "with or without Anwar" as well as Barisan Nasional's ability to retake the opposition-held states.

As for his fledgling Kita, Zaid stressed that his party's vision "was based on the principles by which I live my political life".

Zaid, who once promised to reveal his party's leadership structure once "things had settled", confirmed that Kita's leadership was already in place and that its manifesto would be unveiled at the end of June.

He then set about the strategy that he would use, to guide Kita in the forthcoming general election, such as the number of seats to be contested and the calibre of candidates to be chosen. He also stressed that the party had to "live within its means".

Perhaps unsurprisingly, he also rubbished the claim that Anwar was a reformist, calling the latter a master spinner instead.

Commenting on Kita's electoral chances, Zaid said: "I don't know how many seats (we will contest) but we will only field credible candidates in that particular area and if that person has the resources."

"I don't have that kind of money to support the candidates."

The former man Umno, who joined PKR, and then later quit PKR to form Kita, also revealed the source of his party's funds. "I am funding the party. Parties don't need that much money, if they have a limited programme, limited scope and do not contest in every seat. We will just live within our means."

According to Zaid, Kita has 3,000 members and although he did not know how many women there were in the party, he hoped they would hold important posts.

"The party is not interested in looking for big numbers because we don't think that model works. More members mean more expenses and more problems. What we need are more supporters; people who believe in the party's struggle. They don't have to be members. Just support us."

When he was in PKR, Zaid was in charge of putting together Pakatan's common policy. Asked if he has seen his common policy for Pakatan being implemented, he replied: "They will dispute whatever they have got now. When I left the party, they said my rôle was minimal. That's their style."

"They wanted to reduce my importance but the fact remains that before I joined, there was no convention of Pakatan. There was no common policy platform. People can reason for themselves who contributed to that."

'Pakatan will win fewer seats'

To a question if Pakatan would remain strong post-Anwar, Zaid was emphatic. "If PKR can form the next government, then the answer is 'No'".

"Whether they can get some seats in Parliament, similar to what they have now? Maybe. I am inclined to think they'll probably get fewer seats."

And he emphasised: "With or without Anwar."

Zaid's responses, when asked if Pakatan was doing the right, or possibly the wrong things, compared to BN, were revealing.

"I think the state government in Penang is doing well. DAP is able to manage the economy. I think Selangor is doing as well as it can. So it is good they are doing that because you must show the people, for them to decide."

People now have experienced both BN and opposition governments. Selangor and Penang are doing okay.

"I think PAS will win in Kelantan, but PAS has been there for 22 years. There's always a problem over governments which have been around for too long. There's a certain staleness in Kelantan now. I think that's the place to watch."

Kedah was one place which Zaid was unfamiliar with. "I don't know much about Kedah although I imagine that it will be difficult to unseat an incumbent. There will be a good fight in Kedah. As much as it will be difficult to unseat BN at the federal level, it's difficult to unseat the state government, even if it is held by the opposition."

Asked if there was any truth in former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad manipulating behind the scenes to position his son Mukhriz as a possible future menteri besar of Kedah, Zaid scoffed at the suggestion.

"I'm not surprised, if that's the plan. But I don't know if Mahathir's son can even take Kedah."

Zaid then cited Najib Tun Razak's mistake in Perak. "DAP is very strong and has 18 seats there. The chances of the opposition are not bad if PAS can deliver the Malay votes."

When reminded about the way Perakians reacted with fury towards Najib's coup, Zaid was quick to censure the prime minister.

"Najib made a mistake for BN to take over in that process. Although the courts decided in favour of the federal government, the reasoning was flawed. It was not good for democracy."

"The people should accept the election outcome. Regardless of whatever flaws, there is no perfect system. I think BN will be better off fighting rather than using this method or 'crossing over'. That is not a good precedent."

Give EC more powers

Elections in Malaysia are perceived to be neither free nor fair, and Zaid was asked for his views on how to resolve the election rigging, because ultimately, Kita would also be affected. "I wouldn't say our elections are rigged… then the opposition wouldn't have won so many seats. So I don't agree that our election system is so bad."

"I agree that a lot of the powers are not with the Election Commission (EC). That's why the EC is weak. I don't believe there is a deliberate attempt to cheat in the election by the EC. If that is true, then BN would have won all the seats. Our elections laws are outdated and the power is not given to the EC."

"Whenever there are problems, they have to check with the attorney-general and police. Even the posters are security issues. I wouldn't say that the EC is engaged or actively involved in cheating. It is not a perfect system and we can do a lot more to enhance the EC. Our EC needs to have the powers to investigate and decide."

"Our EC is just to manage the election, to set up rooms, booths and counters. We can empower the EC by changing the law. That's the way to address the issue. The BN government is very insecure and it wants to keep all the power to itself. That's not good for democracy."

Zaid then talked about the Kita manifesto which he hoped to launch at the end of June. "Manifestos are your policies, your wish-list, what you hope the government will do for the country. We can propose many things but if the politics of the country is such or if the people are not ready, then we will try to be as compact as we can."

Zaid was asked if he thought the Pakatan coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS would be able to put aside their petty squabbles and contest as one organisation. He was also asked if Kita would join the coalition.

"Pakatan cannot contest under one banner. It is not possible as it comprises three different parties. When Pakatan was formed, I insisted that we should have one party. I was asked to be the pro-tem chairman of that party. Anwar would tell people I insisted on it, but it's not true."

"He didn't want to face the truth. This is how power is going to be shared. His people are going to hold the posts. He just wants to gain power and decide on issues later."

Asked if Anwar was a power-hungry individual, Zaid said: "I am glad you used that word because I am just telling you what happened in my one year there."

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 03:26 PM PDT

"Tiga perkara yang akan saya lakukan adalah menangkis propaganda Umno-BN mengenai masalah Melayu kononnya orang Melayu tidak akan terjamin sekiranya Pakatan Rakyat memerintah, ini persepsi yang salah dan propaganda ini harus ditangkis, PAS perlu bertindak segera untuk membalas serangan yang dibuat Umno-BN ini," kata beliau.

Oleh Syed Mu'az Syed Putra, The Malaysian Insider

Mohamad Sabu, yang bertanding jawatan timbalan presiden buat kali kedua menegaskan, konsep kepimpinan ulama sepatutnya ditekankan dalam Majlis Syura, bukannya diterjemahkan ke atas jawatan-jawatan eksekutif parti Islam itu.

Mohamad, 56, atau lebih mesra dengan panggilan "Mat Sabu" berpendapat bahawa konsep kepimpinan ulama telah menjadi kekeliruan di kalangan ahli menyebabkan golongan profesional sukar mendapat tempat dalam jawatan tertinggi parti itu.

"Bagi saya presiden dan ke bawah boleh sesiapa sahaja yang layak untuk memimpin tiada masalah baik ulama atau profesional.

"Majlis Ulama ini yang perlu ditekankan bukan jawatan eksekutif, ia perlu dipertingkatkan dalam organisasi ini.

"Sebab itu, kalau kita lihat banyak ahli yang salah erti konsep kepimpinan ulama ini dan ia menimbulkan sedikit kekeliruan," katanya yang terkenal di kalangan akar umbi ahli-ahli PAS dan parti pesaingnya.

"Namun saya pasti perubahan sudah mula berlaku dalam PAS," kata beliau kepada The Malaysian Insider menjelang muktamar kali ke-57 yang bermula hari ini.

Beliau yang juga ahli jawatankuasa kerja PAS pusat bagaimanapun berkata akan terus menyokong konsep kepimpinan ulama dalam Majlis Syura.

"Soal kepimpinan ulama ini diperkenalkan pada zaman kami masih Pemuda PAS pada 1982 yang mana ketika itu ketuanya adalah Datuk Mustafa Ali ... memang tidak dapat dinafikan ketika itu anak muda terpengaruh dengan revolusi Islam yang berlaku di Iran yang dipimpin golongan ulama," katanya.

Mohamad menambah beliau akan terus mendokong konsep kepimpinan ulama dan Majlis Syura perlu diperkukuhkan agar PAS tidak terkeluar daripada dasar perjuangan Islam.

Selain Mohamad, turut bertanding jawatan itu adalah penyandangnya Nasharudin Mat Isa dan Naib Presiden PAS Datuk Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man. Bagaimanapun kedua-dua calon itu tidak dapat diakses untuk ditemu bual khas.

Sebagaimana disaksikan tahun-tahun lalu, soal kepimpinan ulama dan profesional kembali muncul dalam menentukan penyandang jawatan nombor dua parti komponen Pakatan Rakyat itu.

Minggu lalu, Mursyidul Am PAS Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat menafikan wujudnya soal kepimpinan ulama atau profesional dalam parti itu.

Malah Ketua Dewan Ulama PAS pusat Datuk Harun Taib menegaskan kepimpinan ulama harus diteruskan dalam parti itu walaupun ia tidak termaktub dalam perlembagaan parti Islam itu.

Ditanya apa matlamat utama yang akan dilakukan sekiranya terpilih untuk jawatan nombor dua itu, Mohamad berkata, PAS perlu bergerak lebih maju ke hadapan selain bertindak lebih agresif menangkis serangan dilakukan Umno-BN terutamanya dalam menghadapi pilihan raya umum ke-13.

Perkara kedua, menggerakkan usaha bagi PAS mendapatkan sokongan orang bukan Melayu secara berterusan kerana jika tidak berterusan hasrat Pakatan Rakyat untuk menawan Putrajaya akan terbengkalai.

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 02:14 PM PDT

A leaked WikiLeads cable reveals that US diplomats visited Perak after the BN coup and concluded that only the BN has the clout to muscle its way to power.

The US diplomats had visited Perak one year after the BN takeover, and just after a February 2010 Federal Court ruling which affirmed BN's Zambry Abd Kadir as the righful menteri besar.

K Kabilan, Free Malaysia Today

The Barisan Nasional (BN) takeover of Perak indicated clearly the ruling coalition's clout and ability to manipulate and muscle its way to power, noted US diplomats.

The BN victory in Perak was a "successful political power play both in terms of brute and refined power".

"(This) reminds us that of the two coalitions, only the BN has the clout, money, and ability to manipulate the government system (election commission, courts) to muscle its way to power," added the US diplomats.

The diplomats also felt that while Pakatan Rakyat leaders have been critical of the manner in which the state was taken away from their control, there were also cracks appearing in the Pakatan coalition.

"They (Pakatan) remain somewhat fragmented both within their coalition, and within their component parties," added the diplomats, referring specifically to the internal fight for influence in the Perak DAP.

These comments were made by the US diplomats based in the US embassy here to their State Department in Washington in a confidential cable dated Feb 19, 2010.

Details of the cable were leaked by WikiLeaks to popular blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin who had published the leaked cable in his Malaysia Today website today.

The US diplomats had visited Perak one year after the BN takeover, and just after a February 2010 Federal Court ruling which affirmed BN's Zambry Abd Kadir as the righful menteri besar.

"The BN now has firm control of Perak and is working to regain some of its lost influence among voters, having allocated resources into projects to win back support of the people," added the diplomats in the cable.

"With the Chinese vote firmly supporting the opposition, the deciding votes in any future election rest with the ethnic Malays," they added.

They also noted that the Malay support was split between the ruling coalition and the opposition.

Zambry vs Nizar

The diplomats had also met up with politicians from both BN and Pakatan during the visit to Perak, including meetings with Zambry and Pakatan's menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin.

Both sets of politicians had claimed that the people of Perak supported them, and had slammed the state administration of the other.

While Nizar had said that his short administration was "successful and people-friendly", Zambry had said that he had the will of the people to rule and had pointed out his "people-friendly policies".

Zambry had also informed the US diplomats that he was confident of winning snap polls if it had been held then – in 2010 – saying that BN would win 34 out of 59 state seats.

He, however, ruled out calling for a snap election, saying that "the Perak BN state government does not operate based on the dictates of the opposition".

Nizar, meanwhile, had informed the US diplomats that he had the support of 80% of the Chinese and Indian vote, and at least 50% of the ethnic Malay vote.

However, he admitted that even with fresh elections, there was no guarantee that the Pakatan would win a majority of seats to form a government.

"Nizar stated that the BN has managed to 'poison the minds of the rural Malays' by convincing them that he was 'a lackey of the DAP' and 'had committed treason by defying the Sultan' after the defections," noted the diplomats in the cable.

Non-Malay support

The cable also spoke about the meetings between the US diplomats and non-Malay BN leaders on the support of the Chinese and Indian communities for BN.

Gerakan deputy president and state chief Chang Ko Youn openly blamed Umno's racist policies as the reason for the Chinese voters to "desert the BN by droves" in the last general election.

He also added that the Chinese media were "unfriendly" towards BN, stating the Chinese newspapers were more independent and at times favoured the opposition rather than BN parties.

He had also said that it would be difficult for BN to win over the Chinese voters in the next general election.

However, this view was not shared by MCA's Mah Hang Soon, who said that BN was "now more aware of the Chinese problem" and was "working on overcoming it". Mah is the state MCA Youth chief and the sole non-Umno state rep.

He said the state BN had given land titles to Chinese farmers and had funded nine independent Chinese schools in the state, admitting that in the past, the BN state government had completely ignored the plight of independent Chinese schools.

As for the Indian community, the BN state assembly speaker and state MIC secretary, R Ganesan, was of the opinion that the BN government "has enacted numerous polices for the benefit of non-Malays".

"Ganesan proudly stated that for the first time the state government has allocated funding for Hindu temples," added the cable.

The cable also noted that the previous Pakatan government started the policy of allocating funds to non-Islamic religious institutions, but it is the BN which was seeing this through.

The cable also quoted Ganesan as saying that he could see the Indians returning to the BN based on the number of people attending BN-sponsored meetings and political rallies.

READ MORE HERE

WikiLeaks Disclosures and Diplomacy

Posted: 01 Jun 2011 04:31 PM PDT

What did the diplomatic dispatches amount to? One view is that they are proof that the US was struggling to get its way in the world, a superpower entering a long period of decline. Another is that they showed the State Department staff to be competent and professional, hardworking and committed.

Malaysia Digest

The release of US State Department diplomatic cables by a maverick website WikiLeaks since November 2010 has caused widespread embarrassment to many political leaders in countries around the world. The United States has been discomfited by the exposure of its secret communications and discussions about its friends and foes. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hit out at the concerted action as an attack not just on the US but also the international community. Some European and American politicians liken the massive disclosures to a diplomatic equivalent of the 911 attacks on New York's Twin Towers and the Pentagon in 2001. It is not clear if these politicians were referring to the leaked State Department cables alone or also the earlier release by the same website of 391,000 classifies military reports on the war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Whatever the case it is a moot question if the leaks had any substantive impact on US national security or cleared or clouded up the smoke and mirrors of US foreign policy. So what were the State Department cables all about? What are the implications for relations and intelligence exchange between nation states? The cables were dispatches from US embassies and consulates around the world, over 350 of them, ranging administrative matters to political reports and appraisals of the countries of their accreditation. There were some frank and unflattering assessments of political leaders. There were analyses, some of them of good quality, as well as comments about personalities, reports and records of meetings and summations of situations. There were essays on US-China relations or intractable problems and conflicts in the Caucasus. They highlighted the geopolitical interests and preoccupations of the US, such as nuclear proliferation and illicit drug trafficking, the supposed threat from Iran, the hard to control military situations Afghanistan and security threats in Pakistan.

The US embassy cables offered an incomparable detailed mosaic of life and politics in the early 21st century, as observed by American eyes. They also included disclosures of things that were of concern to citizens of the US and the world: human rights violations, corrupt practices and dubious financial ties between leaders of advanced countries. They spoke of corporate espionage, dirty tricks and hidden bank accounts.

What did the diplomatic dispatches amount to? One view is that they are proof that the US was struggling to get its way in the world, a superpower entering a long period of decline. Another is that they showed the State Department staff to be competent and professional, hardworking and committed. Most of the diplomatic corps were working to advance their nation's interests and their government's policies.

Implications for Relations

What are the implications for relations between the US and the countries reported on, and among those countries and third parties? Some leaders brushed off the embarrassing revelations, at least in public, while others went on the offensive. In some cases the US found it prudent to withdraw its ambassadors as their ability to function was compromised. In less prickly situations the offended countries registered their protests to the State Department.

Some examples from West Africa and North Africa are illustrative. Iran's President Ahmedinejad, who was depicted in the cables as being unpopular in the Gulf region, dismissed the WikiLeaks disclosures as "psychological warfare". He claimed that the US must have deliberately leaked its own files in a plot to discredit him. Saudi King Abdullah was reported to be discomfited by reports that he had urged the US to cut off the head of the snake, referring to the Iranian President's defiant posture on developing a nuclear capacity.

In Tunisia and Libya there was short-term fallout. Washington pulled out its Ambassador in Tripoli because Gaddfi has been stung by comments about his attachment to his "voluptuous blonde Ukrainian nurse". The US Ambassador in Tunis was similarly withdrawn though his unflattering reports Zein al Abdine bin Ali, the Algerian President and his son and the risks to the regime's long term stability, proved to be prescient. Within a month of the publication of the cable Tunis was the grip of what some called the first WikiLeaks revolution in Jasmin Square. Gaddafi warned Tunisians not to be tricked by WikiLeaks which, he said, "published information written by lying ambassadors in order to create chaos". Turkish Prime Minister reacted furiously to cables that suggested he was a corrupt closet Islamist. Mexico's President was enraged by negative reports of his conduct of the drug war in his country.

Damage Control

Secretary Clinton visited the Middle East in January 2011 on what she described half jokingly as an "apology tour". She had to reach out to leaders and others who had concerns abut either the general message of American confidential comments being exposed in this way or specific questions about their countries or themselves. That aspect of it had receded, she said, adding: "I have not had concerns expressed about whether any nation will not continue to work with and discuss matters of importance going forward."

A study by IISS observed that the comparatively limited overall damage done to US diplomatic interests reflected the reality of the continuing indispensability of the US. As summed up by Defense Secretary Robert Gates," some governments deal with because they fear us, some because they respect us, most because they need us". Foreign governments, the report observed, have long recognized the "leakiness" of Washington and that the administration cannot guarantee that information or views will be immune from authorized disclosure.

The WikiLeaks deluge of secret diplomatic traffic, however, was extraordinary. And it came about as a consequence of a deliberate policy of the State Department to distribute data more widely across government departments. Under a post-911 information sharing initiative called Net-centric diplomacy, embassy cables were routinely distributed via SPIRNet (Secret Internet Protocol Router Network), a military operated b the US Department of Defense.

Communications that were marked SIPDIS for distribution via SIPRNt would be accessible to State Department employees as well as all members of the US military with "secret" security clearance. This meant that several million people had access to them. SPIRNet constituted an enormous bucket of information with huge potential for leaks. Recognizing this, US intelligence agencies stood aside from it and so have been peripherally affected b the latest disclosures. All it took was one disgruntled soldier or a low level analyst, based in Iraq, to spring the leak. He is said to have downloaded the cables on to rewritable CDs without being detected. Secretary Clinton has reportedly withdrawn the State Department from participation in SPIRNet.

Diplomatic Fallout

The US is not alone in sharing and exchanging assessment with other countries, particularly with allies and friends. Diplomats of friendly countries exchange notes about third parties in confidence. The online news portal Asia Sentinel published on January 20, 2011 the full cable from the US embassy in Canberra reporting an exchange of intelligence between officials of the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research and Australia's Office of National Assessments in October, 2008. They traded assessments on a wide range of subjects from Iran to Japan and Southeast Asian countries and their leaders. The officials exchange notes about what regional officials had told them about the politics and personalities of certain countries.

These comments, published by Australian newspaper, evoked strong reactions from regional leaders concerned. Indonesian President Bambang Susilo Yudhoyono was obliged to protest and dismiss suggestions of corrupt political funding by his acolytes prior to his election. Malaysian leaders too conveyed their displeasure with Singapore officials over their private comments about Malaysian political personalities, which they said were unjustified. Singapore's Foreign Minister (George Yeo) sought to play down the leaked cables and brushed them off as hearsay or gossip which did not form the basis of bilateral relations. In Thailand reports of comments by senior officials about the role of the monarchy in its tumultuous political events and the question of royal succession led to exchange of accusations of les majeste between political opponents.

In India the impact of the leaked cables was to compound the serial exposes of corruption which paralyzed the national parliament for weeks. In Japan the cables showed the tension between the US and Japanese governments over the relocation of a Marine air base in Okinawa and revealed how the two sides sought to promote or protect their national interests. Being the superpower it is, it is not surprising that the US employed "sharp elbows" occasionally, commented an academic analyst. The cables also showed how China exercised its influence on its neighbors through private diplomacy while making public pronouncements as measured instruments for conveying pressure.

In order to counter the WikiLeaks effect, government agencies need to strike a balance between the wider public's need to know and the value of confidentiality of their private negotiations. Two guiding principle are suggested: first, to be open about the ground for secrecy, with clear criteria which can be defended; second, protect less but protect it better. There is a vast amount of information that governments keep secret, argued a historian. Many of the reports classified as secret could easily have appeared as news analysis pieces in newspapers. Having decided what they really need to keep secret they should make sure to keep it secret, and not upload it to a data base accessible to all and sundry.

Long Term Impact on Diplomacy

The assessment of the impact of the WikiLeaks disclosures has wound down to a more realistic one of embarrassment to parties concerned, but no real harm done to the US and its partners. The exposures of corrupt practices or crooked acts in some developing countries or illicit deals between developed countries have had lasting effect on the countries concerned, because those are common knowledge to their people. The cables have shown that American diplomats are hardworking, well informed, quite reliable in their reporting and astute in assessing the situation in their host countries. They are assiduous in compiling profiles of political leaders and key officials to assess whether they are pro or against US interests. The cables are a trove of information or observations about countries and leaders around the world.

These cables serve as examples of what most diplomatic representatives do or should do for countries of major interest to their governments. Collecting information and assessing people, places, actions and events form the staple of the tasks of diplomatic missions, beside the promotion of good relations and exchanges of communications and visits between the leaders and officials of their countries. That aspect of diplomatic work will continue. And so will the collection of intelligence by agents and representatives of intelligence agencies posted overseas.

However, if anything, the US cables have shown the need for officials and political personalities to be more discreet and circumspect in sharing views about politics and personalities of neighboring countries with diplomats from the US and indeed all countries. The disclosures would probably result in a more cautious environment for diplomats in their interactions with local contacts and sources; the latter could well begin with a disclaimer that what they said was off the record, and certainly not for passing to WikiLeaks!

*Taken from dinmerican.wordpress.com. Mushahid Ali is a Singapore Ambassador and Senior Fellow of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer.

PAS duel: Kelantan vs Terengganu

Posted: 01 Jun 2011 07:42 AM PDT

The media claims it is a contest between the clerics and professionals. But party insiders say the real battle is between Kelantan and Terengganu PAS.

Historically, Kelantan and Terengganu never liked each other. Their mutual dislike had its root in a brief territorial dispute in the 1800s over the district of Besut, which both rulers laid claim.

Hawkeye, Free Malaysia Today

The upcoming PAS election is not a battle royale between the clerics (ulama) and professionals, says former Perak PAS commissioner Awang Ahmad.

Rather, he said, the contest was about competency, where the 1,500-plus delegates would choose leaders capable of moving the party forward.

"It is not that the current leaders are not good. It's just that the members want those who can perform better."

Awang said that within the party ranks, no such camps representing the ulama and the professionals existed.

"All are the same," he said.

"The party has become appealing to all, hence the slogan 'PAS for all', but most importantly, the party needed a healthy blend of clerics and professionals."

Awang said party president Abdul Hadi Awang constantly advocated that both sides needed each other and could learn from each other.

He claimed that it was demeaning to PAS if the media continued to portray the party election as a contest between the ulama and the profressionals.

PAS supporters club council adviser Hu Phang Chaw said the description came about probably to make it easier for the delegates to differentiate between senior and junior members.

"The clerics are the veterans while the juniors are the professionals," he said.

Kelantan versus Terengganu

According to some party insiders, who did not want to be named, the real contest is between the Terengganu and Kelantan factions.

They said that the race is between Hadi and PAS spiritual adviser Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who is also the long-serving Kelantan menteri besar.

On June 11, Kelantan would play Terengganu in the FA Cup football final, and this will surely be a hot topic when the Kelantan and Terengganu football supporters in PAS gather for their muktamar tomorrow.

Historically, Kelantan and Terengganu never liked each other. Their mutual dislike had its root in a brief territorial dispute in the 1800s over the district of Besut, which both rulers laid claim.

A local myth has it that the Kelantan royalty lost the district as a result of cock-fighting competition. It was also generally perceived that many people in Besut spoke the Kelantanese dialect.

A popular political humour making the rounds was that former Terengganu menteri besar Idris Jusoh was a Kelantanese, as he was the Besut MP.

Against this historical background, the PAS election will take place as the muktamar (assembly) gets underway tomorrow. Observers see it as a proxy fight between the Kelantan and Terengganu PAS.

In one corner is Hadi whose faction preferred a cautious form of politics to ensure the party does not lose its stake in the country's political future. In the other corner is Nik Aziz, who tends to emulate Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's style of a no-holds-barred campaign to dislodge the Barisan Nasional (BN).

PAS is now engaged in a "shadow play" (wayang kulit) where all its dealings will be conducted beyond the prying eyes of the media and even its Pakatan Rakyat partners DAP and PKR, insiders here said.

The candidates vying for party posts are expected to wage a personal campaign where SMS will be their tool to canvass for votes from the more than 1,500 delegates. They will also rely on private lobbying, feasts, and informal meetings in car rides.

Awang pointed out that the looming national election would have a bearing on who wins in the PAS contest as the party seeks to consolidate itself to prepare for a bruising battle ahead with BN.

"No delegate would want to vote along a pattern which will split PAS," he said.

PAS observer Mohd Sayuthi Omar, a veteran blogger who writes about Malay politics, said that the differences in style between Hadi and Nik Aziz could be traced back to the 1980s when both were upstarts under the former president, the late Fadzil Noor.

Then, Hadi was the aggressor and a hardliner; he was issuing controversial edicts (fatwa) against Umno, calling it an apostate at one time. Nik Aziz, as the Kelantan menteri besar, was preoccupied with defending the state from Umno's forays to overthrow PAS.

There is somewhat of a role reversal now: Hadi seems to be more tactful than Nik Aziz, who, like Anwar, is seen to be aggressive towards Umno, Sayuthi said.

Observers believe that Hadi changed tack when he became PAS president. He decided to be diplomatic, fatherly and cautious on the political front.

In contrast, Nik Aziz felt that PAS should go for the jugular by dismantling Umno when the latter suffered a drubbing in the 2008 general election.

Sayuthi also said that Nik Aziz nursed a grudge against Umno because the Umno-led government had imprisoned his son Nik Adli under the Internal Security Act in the early 2000s. His son was released two years later.

Unity goverment talks

The cracks in PAS surfaced weeks after the 2008 election when leaders in the Terengganu faction began to counsel Hadi about the new political shifts in the country.

A radicalised Umno has now emerged while its partners, MCA and Gerakan, went into decline when their political bases were hijacked by PKR and DAP.

They feared that if PAS did not adapt, it might either be trampled by BN or be sidelined in Pakatan.

The Terengganu-based advisers told Hadi to be on guard and not to place "all the eggs in one basket".

PAS was then positioned in the far centre rather than the left or right in the political equation, the insiders claimed.

PAS deputy president Nasharudin Mat Isa was appointed as an emissary to hold informal meetings with Umno to try to get the best for the party in the much-altered political scene.

But when news emerged about Hadi's sudden change in stance and that Nasharudin, the former golden boy of Kelantan PAS, had informal meetings with Umno, all hell broke loose in Kelantan.

The insiders said Nik Aziz was mad that he was not consulted about the informal chats with Umno and recently revealed that the latter continued to court him by promising PAS three ministerial posts in a unity government.

For the record, the unity government concept was first mooted by Kelantan prince, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, in 2008, as he had forseen that the Malaysian politics was full of uncertainty and needed a new approach.

But the idea was shot down by most parties.

In 2009, Nik Aziz immediately snuffed out all prospects of a strategic alliance with Umno while his proteges such as Husam Musa went on a nationwide roadshow to explain his mentor's contention.

The climax was the 2009 party election where Kelantan PAS was confident of doing well, especially its man, Husam, who contested against Nasharudin for the deputy president's post. But the latter prevailed against all odds to beat back the challenge and retain his post.

However, it was a hollow victory as Nasharudin was "chased" out of Kelantan when the state PAS made public about his role in the proposed Malay unity government talks with Umno.

Although Nasharudin is the Bachok MP, he was seldom seen in the corridors of Wisma Darul Naim, Kelantan's administrative seat.

Today, the Negri Sembilan-born Nasharudin is again fighting the odds – he is challenged in a three-cornered contest.

Pahang PAS commissioner, the pious and soft-spoken Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Mat, is vying for the number two spot and is seen as a leader capable of placating both Terengganu and Kelantan PAS.

The fact that he did not have any "political baggage" was a plus point and Sayuthi predicted that Tuan Ibrahim would have an edge based on the "mood" on the ground.

However, Nasharudin had proven that he cannot be discounted but one wonders whether the Terengganu faction was solidly behind him now.

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Kredit: www.malaysia-today.net

Jumaat, 3 Jun 2011