- How The Malay Vote Was Lost
- The Morning After - Part 1
- A stronger Islamic flavour after GE13?
- Keputusan PRU 13: Tsunami Cina atau Tsunami Malaysia?
Posted: 05 May 2013 05:32 PM PDT
Before I forget allow me to write the conclusion to this blogpost first :
The majority race of a State does not guarantee their victory at the Polls. The success of any one racial group at the Polls depends on how many members of that racial grouping are :
i. registered voters
ii. how many of them actually came out to vote on Polling Day.
Yesterday at about 3:30PM I blogged this urgently : URGENT : PENGUNDI MELAYU KENA KELUAR UNDI SEKARANG
There was a reason for this. Yesterday at Bangsar there were thousands of Chinese voters. In the queue, Chinese folks were saying 'I spent RM400 to fly from Singapore to vote'. One guy said he flew his son in from Hong Kong to vote. Another person said he had come back from Australia just to vote. The Chinese were out in huge numbers to vote.
First of all we must congratulate the Chinese for their diligence, their commitment and also their faith in the electoral process. This is a democracy. We determine our fate through the ballot. That is the process that we have all agreed upon. So we must salute the Chinese voters for having so much trust in the democratic process.
However who we vote for and why we vote for them is something else. Dont forget that the German people once voted for Hitler and the Nazis - also through the democratic ballot.
Then I also noticed that there were very, very few Malay voters (in Sek Keb Bukit Bandaraya). After voting I received calls from a friend of mine who said the same thing. Chinese voter turnout was huge in Kelana Jaya and Shah Alam. The Malay voters were not as many. Then my friend said he was getting calls from Johor saying the same thing. Where were the Malay voters?
Two of my Malay staff who were supposed to vote did not do so for flimsy reasons ('kereta tak datang ambil' and 'ramai sangat tunggu queue'). That is when I decided to Blog the URGENT : PENGUNDI MELAYU KENA KELUAR UNDI SEKARANG at about 3:30 PM yesterday.
I am sad to say that I did sms some folks who should have known better and who were in a position to do something about this. But the reply I received was "Not true".
Now here are some interesting facts. Before May 5th, Helen Ang - a most enlightened Chinese (in the Malaysian context, and to avoid doubts, this is a compliment Helen) blogged the following graph and made an observation that has played itself out completely yesterday. Here is the graph from Helen Ang :
In this graph, the horizontal coloured bands (blue, red, yellow, green) represent the demographic proportions (Malay, Chinese, Indians, Others). The percentages above the bands (beside the dots) represent the percentage of registered voters from a particular racial group.
What is clear is that in most states listed above, the percentage of registered voters who are Chinese exceeds the percentage of Chinese in the state. For example in Terengganu, Chinese make up only 2.6% of the population. But they make up 3.55% of registered voters.
This means the Chinese are diligent in registering as voters.
In the West coast states with larger Chinese populations, this assumes a different picture altogether. In Penang for example, Chinese are only 45.6% of the population. Logically they cannot win the elections by themselves. However in Penang, Chinese make up over 53.38% of registered voters.
The Malays make up over 45% of the total population in Penang. However Malays make up only 35.7% of registered voters in Penang. So even if all the 35.7% of voters who are Malays came out to vote, they will still lose to the Chinese.
So although the Malays are the majority race (or almost majority) in Penang, it is of no use to them politically because not enough Malays are registered voters to make them dominate at the Polls. What is the use of being the majority race if your people are not registered to vote? (Macam lelaki tak ada pelir lah).
The Chinese in Penang are in the minority but because more Chinese are registered to vote (compared to Malays) this means for practical purposes the Chinese are the majority. Not the Malays. More Chinese than Malays can vote in Penang.
This is even more drastic in Kuala Lumpur. Chinese make up 43.2% of the population of Kuala Lumpur. However 52.15% of registered voters in KL are Chinese. Malays on the other hand make up over 50% of the population in KL. However registered voters who are Malay make up 35.7% only.
So even before Polling Day, the registered Chinese voters have already outnumbered registered Malay voters both in Penang and Kuala Lumpur. The Chinese have already won over the Malays even before Parliament was dissolved.
Posted: 05 May 2013 03:29 PM PDT
It's also interesting to note than Pakatan has actually won the popular vote by amassing about 52% share of the total votes of GE-13 but was rewarded with only 40% of the shares of federal seats, whilst BN with 48% of total votes garnered 60% of the 222 federal seats. Only once before in Malaysia's political history has a party with the majority of federal seats lost the popular vote, to wit, in 1969.
But this is a result of a combination of 'first past the post' contest combined with gross gerrymandering where in one federal constituency, only 12,000 registered voters can elect a MP to represent them in parliament while in another constituency, as many as 120,000 voters may only vote for also one MP to represent them. The voter in the former has ten times the say in parliament compared to his/her sardine-zed fellow Malaysian in the latter, perhaps a 'lesser' Malaysian.
The job of a truly independent impartial Election Commission, which of course doesn't describe the Malaysian EC, would have endeavour to ensure the universal suffrage of 'one person, one vote' in a democracy, thus dividing the 222 federal constituencies into lots having an average of, say, 60,000 voters in each [some minor variations may be allowed but subject to justifications, etc]. Kapar would then be divided into Kapar East (or North) and Kapar West (or South) while Putrajaya doesn't deserve to be be a federal seat by itself and would be subsumed under another Wilayah contituency or combined with Labuan as one.
But that's only a pipe dream as the ruling party will never allow such impartial professionalism to come about for the EC. Let me share a very closed secret with you - the EC is in fact UMNO's real fixed deposit, not just some pro-UMNO states.
Nonetheless, I would say, notwithstanding suspicions of UMNO's alleged 'creativity' with the alleged help of the EC, Najib has done well not to let the BN lose and, what more, also in regaining BN's control of Kedah and retaining rule in the Silver State, the latter very much to my surprise.
It's a truism of politics that political parties lose elections, not win them.
While Najib was assisted by the master strategist and tactician, his mentor Dr Mahathir, in not losing the votes of the Heartland, he wasted previous federal seats in overindulging the extreme right-wing element of his party by allowing two losers in Zulkuifli Noordin and Ibrahim Ali to contest.
Ibrahim Ali was undoubtedly a concession to his mentor, but I wonder for the life of me why he had chosen Zulkifli Noordin, an automatic loser from the moment the religious bigot was nominated.
Then he compounded his mistake by marginalizing Ong Tee Keat just on the words of a loser like Chua Soi Lek, a MCA man who lacked objectivity, impartiality and coalition interests insofar as his intra-party chief political enemy is concerned.
Najib was lucky to not to lose despite wasting the 3 potential federal seats of Pasir Mas, Shah Alam and Pandan.
But f* gerrymandering and the popular vote because big business are elated with the BN victory. As TMI reported in its As results sink in, big winners are KL tycoons and Lynas as stocks rally:
Stocks surged as much as 6.8 per cent this morning and the ringgit jumped to a 10-month high, after Barisan Nasional (BN) extended its 56-year rule and fended off a strong opposition challenge that had unnerved investors.
The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose to a lifetime high of 1,808.90 by 9.02am in response to yesterday's general election, with stocks linked to the coalition and its favoured tycoons gaining handsomely, Reuters reported this morning.
Kowtim-ness has been preserved, wakakaka!
Ironically, in the midst of big business breaking open bottles of Dom Perignon, the biggest loser has been MCA, proving a point I made in another post that most Chinese business concerns have been bypassing MCA as they deem the Chinese political party as pretty useless in influencing the UMNO-led government on business and contracts.
Posted: 05 May 2013 01:33 PM PDT
Ulama Bukan Penentu
Tiada Jaminan Ulama Menang
Ulama Beri Saingan Sengit
PRU 13 Satu Jihad Perkasa Islam
Calon Ulama Beri Kelebihan
Dekati Pengundi Masjid
Ulama Imbangi Pentadbiran
PRU13 Penentu Hala Tuju Akidah Umat Islam
Ulama Lebih Mendekati Masyarakat
Empat Ulama Bertanding di Perlis
The above are headlines taken from Sinar Harian 29th April, 2013. While the front page reads, " Ulama Bukan Penentu" and the editorial "Tiada Jaminan Ulama Menang", all the cover stories inside the daily suggest otherwise. I wanted to post this article earlier but each time I talk about Islam and politics in Malaysia many were quick to suggest that I do so because I want to scare away the non-Muslim voters. As such, I decided to post this letter only after the elections, today after 5 pm, May 5th.
That Malaysia will turn more and more 'Islamic' is a foregone conclusion. I will share two main reasons for this; one being local while the other, global.
In Malaysia today, the Muslim majority are giving birth more than the rest. Owing to this rate, by 2050 the Muslims should occupy about 70 % of Malaysia as compared to the current 60. A recent survey about young Muslims aged 15 to 25 years old in Malaysia published on the website of Merdeka Centre reports that more than 70% of them aspire to adopt the Islamic way of life as part of theirs and desire to see the society move forward in the same manner. These statistics I am putting forth are more than just numbers; they indicate where Malaysians are heading and how that journey is re-shaping our nation.
At the global front, while by the 80s and early 90s communism and nationalism being two of the forces obstructing world dominion by the USA were no longer in position to post any challenge to Washington, the Iranian revolution of 1979 thrust Islam to the fore both in national and international politics. A decade later, 1989 saw the Mujahideen's victory over Soviet Russia in the Afghanistan. This success showed that Muslim resistance by a small, organised, determined and united group of faithful can resist and defeat a superpower.
A new kind of confidence and consciousness were injected within the Muslim world. Muslim revivalism that started in the nineteenth century experienced a new vitality. Muslims especially the young re-thought, reflected, and brought back to life their rich and forgotten history into present memory rekindling the spirit of their own golden era.
Furthermore, events in the Middle-East especially the treatment of Palestinians by Israel and its allies and the double standard practice by the West towards Muslim nations serve as a constant fuel in increasing Muslim consciousness. Muslims today see and want Islam to be a possible alternative in managing people and the nation. Malaysian Muslims too share these ideals.
As Malaysia move slowly but surely towards Islam, we must ask ourselves what face of Islam do we want to create. Whether the Muslim direction is led by:
GE 13 and the various possibilities
The results of the GE13 can play a significant role in making the move towards 'Islam' is hasten or slowed. It will also determine which shade of Islam will colour the nation and which of the above 5 equations will evolve.
Posted: 05 May 2013 01:14 PM PDT
UPDATE, 6 Mei - Pencapain BN lebih buruk daipada 2008. Kerusi Dewan Rakyat jatuh daripada 140 kepada 133. Kerusi DUN jatuh daripada 306 kepada 274 walaupun tawan semula Kedah dan sahkan penguasan ke atas Perak. Buat kali pertama sejak PRU 1969, undi popular BN lebih kecil daripada pembangkang. Setuju dengan pembahas yang ini bukan "tsunami Cina" kerana di negeri majoriti Melayu pun prestasi BN merosot misalnya Terengganu.
"PLEASE accept the results." (Tolong terima keputusan). Demikian kata penyudah Perdana Menteri Mohd Najib Abdul Razak dalam sidang akhbar ketika menerima kemenangan Barisan Nasional dalam PRU 13 di Ibu Pejabat Umno sebentar tadi.
Secara ringkas, pemerhatian awal saya ialah Barisan Nasional tidaklah boleh berbangga apatah lagi keras kepala dengan prestasinya kerana ia sebelum ini ia menguar-uarkan akan menang besar dan memperoleh semula kelebihan dua pertiga dalam Dewan Rakyat serta menawan semula negeri-negeri yang dikuasai Pakatan Rakyat.
Sebaliknya, pencapaiannya lebih buruk daripada 2008 kerana PR berjaya menembusi Johor dan memperoleh lebih banyak kerisi di Sarawak, dua negeri simpanan tetap BN serta berjaya mengusai lebih banyak kerusi DUN di seluruh negara.
Walaupun PR gagal dalam kempen "Ubah" dan "Ini Kalilah" untuk menguasai kerajaan pusat, namun ia memperluaskan kehadirannya di semua negeri.
BN berjaya memenangi semula Kedah, mempertahankan Perak, tetapi gagal menguasai semula Selangor dan Kelantan walaupun jentera propagandanya memberi gambaran Selangor dalam tangan dan Kelantan ada harapan. Cakap besar Selangor akhirnya memakan diri sendiri.
Pulau Pinang tidak perlulah disebutkan lagi. Gerakan dan MCA punah di negeri itu. Umpan yang Mohd Najib berikan kepada orang Cina tidak bermakna. Orang Cina menolak BN secara terang-terangan.
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