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The powerful emotion of hate
Will Malaysia become an Islamic theocratic state?
Sabah 2013: Opposition making same mistakes
The mother of all battles
Buying support - Najib's 'commercialisation' of GE13

Posted: 23 Apr 2013 04:07 PM PDT

The peddling of hate has been proven to be very effective in political marketing, especially when people are trapped in certain mindsets that determine their views.

Two months ago, a young female Facebook user, who posted a YouTube video pledging support for one side, ended up being insulted with all sorts of derogatory names and even threatened with rape.

M. Veera Pandiyan, The Star

SATURDAY, April 20, was a special day for about 80 of my ex-schoolmates and I, most of whom have known each other since starting out in primary school 51 years ago.

No, politics had nothing to do it. Nomination Day just happened to fall on our old boys' reunion, planned months earlier.

But there was no relief from the pervasive political talk amidst the camaraderie and merriment.

Even the chef at the golf resort in Malacca where the gathering of the 58-year-olds were held, could not resist trying to campaign for the side he was supporting.

To my disbelief, the man who had only recently returned home after working in Germany for many years asked me point blank: "Who are you voting for, ah?"

With the whole country gripped by election fever and emotions running at all time highs, such manners can be expected before we cast our ballots for the mother of all political battles on May 5.

A day after the bash, as we were recovering from the after effects of the revelry, a friend who has seen the ups and downs of business shared his experiences in the insurance and multi-level marketing industries before heading back home.

Recalling his lucrative days of running a thriving insurance agency, he said the art of selling policies mostly relied on playing on the emotions of potential clients.

His formula was simple: Give 98% focus on emotions, 1% on product knowledge and 1% for other needed explanations to convince, including "convenient untruths".

We soon ended up comparing the similarities of tactics used in the realm of politics.

An election, after all, is the final closing move in the marketing of political emotions to sway voters to one side or the other.

Emotions are mental reactions experienced as strong feelings directed toward a specific object, persons or situations.

The word can be traced to its Latin roots of movere (to move). Emotions move people to act in a certain way.

Like in the case of marketing products or services, three types of appeals – logical, ethical and emotional – are put across to political "customers".

By right, the logical route based on reasoning should be the most appealing but is used the least, except in cases of party manifestos and presentation of performance "report cards".

The simple reason for this is people don't make rational decisions based on detailed information, careful analysis or conscious thought.

The ethical appeal is usually used in campaign messages to raise the profile of certain personalities and expose the unsuitability of others by disparaging them.

In business, the emotional appeal involves using greed, fear, envy, pride and shame, but in politics, it is the harnessing of primary emotions – happiness, surprise, sadness, anger, disgust and fear, in addition to the most potent one, hate.

The peddling of hate has been proven to be very effective in political marketing, especially when people are trapped in certain mindsets that determine their views and decision-making.

In Malaysia, like elsewhere, political support is conditioned by upbringing based on ethnicity, location (urban or rural), level of education or wealth and the shared belief of family members or friends.

Tragically, since the last general election, hate has been stoked steadily to the point where reason has little chance or participation in civil discourse.

Hate has become the norm in our political engagement, especially in cyber space, with our Hollywood icon Datuk Seri Michelle Yeoh as the latest hapless victim.

The 49-year-old actress was called "a traitor" to the Chinese race, running dog and pinned with other unpalatable labels by partisan cyber bullies just for attending a dinner in Port Klang organised by a group of Selangor Chinese businessmen in support of Barisan Nasional last week.

Two months ago, a young female Facebook user, who posted a YouTube video pledging support for one side, ended up being insulted with all sorts of derogatory names and even threatened with rape.

Don't Malaysians have a choice or the right to support whoever they want anymore?

These days, one cannot log into Facebook without being drawn into some form of partisan political conversation.

Too much energy appears to be focused on emotionally-charged rants and sharing them with people who might not necessarily agree.

Instead of "de-friending" these people, I have taken to hiding posts that are deemed to be unworthy of sharing.

I read somewhere that this would automatically prompt Facebook to weed out posts from such people. It has not happened yet, though.

Hate is also being spread via e-mail and through SMSes and WhatsApp on mobile phones.

Like many others, I have been getting an endless stream of political messages designed to influence my vote, over the past month.

Enough already, please. In any case, my mind has already been made up. It was done some time ago, too.

> Associate Editor M. Veera Pandiyan values these words by Gautama Buddha: Hatred does not cease by hatred, but only by love; this is the eternal rule.

Will Malaysia become an Islamic theocratic state?

Posted: 23 Apr 2013 03:25 PM PDT

For example, in the Terengganu state assembly some years ago when PAS introduced hudud law, the lone MCA member abstained from voting for it whereas, in contrast, all the Umno members voted for it.

Lee Hwa Beng, TMI

In the run-up to this election, some parties and individuals have stated that voting for a certain coalition or party may result in Malaysia becoming an Islamic state.

While the definition of an Islamic state has been widely debated, especially in our country, an Islamic state is broadly one that is based on Islamic laws and principles as its foundation in all aspects socio-political and legal.

It is a theocracy that aims to implement Syariah laws on every citizen irrespective of their faith. Non-Muslims may have a different set of additional rules.

At the moment in Malaysia, the "Constitution is the supreme law" in the country (Article 4 of the Federal Constitution) and while Islam is the religion of the country, "other religions may be practised in peace and harmony" (Article 3(1)) ensuring that there is religious diversity and harmony.

In order for Malaysia to become an Islamic state, the crucial question is whether it is permissible under the Federal Constitution. At the moment, under Article 159(3) any amendment to the Federal Constitution requires "not less than two-thirds of the total number of members" in Parliament.

Hence, for Malaysia to become an Islamic theocratic state, a two-thirds or 148 out of our total 220 MPs must vote for the passing of such an amendment.

There are politicians who have relied on fear-mongering tactics amongst the Chinese community, warning that an Islamic state will result if the Pakatan Rakyat coalition comes into power or, alternatively, if there is a coalition of Umno and PAS.

Instead of speculating on the political likelihood of the aforesaid, I will use figures to substantiate my belief that it is highly unlikely that Malaysia will become an Islamic state in either scenario.

Tables of seats contested based on filing by various parties on Nomination Day held on 20th April 2013:

I will assume that all non-Muslim MPs and non-Muslim parties will either vote against or abstain from voting for a Bill to amend the secular nature of Malaysia.

For example, in the Terengganu state assembly some years ago when PAS introduced hudud law, the lone MCA member abstained from voting for it whereas, in contrast, all the Umno members voted for it.

Thus, based on the above, assuming Umno wins all the 105 seats in Peninsular Malaysia and 15 seats in Sabah and Pesaka Bumi Bersatu (PBB) wins all their 14 seats in Sarawak, the total is only 134 seats.

This figure is still not enough to meet the required two-thirds to amend the Constitution. It falls short of the 14 seats needed to make the 148 seats, which is the figure for two-thirds of the total of 222 seats.

Further it is highly unlikely that Umno and PBB will win all their seats. Hence, in order for an Islamic state to materialise, Umno and PBB would also need the support of Pakatan's Muslim MPs.

The other scenario is that Umno, PBB and PAS form a coalition together to achieve it. From the above table, it might look possible but one should not forget that Umno and PAS are competing against each other in a total of 64 seats and PAS against PBB in five seats.

Posted: 23 Apr 2013 12:16 PM PDT

Sabah politics is, as I keep repeating, complicated.

But as the next general election comes around, Barisan Nasional's "fixed deposit" seems secure as the Opposition has learnt nothing about winning the state during the last few elections.

There is one key demographic that has changed the tide for Sabah before and one that PKR has wilfully ignored, every single time.

That group is the non-Muslim Bumiputeras.

Sabah was an opposition state before, under Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) headed by maverick leader Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan.

Pairin is often rubbished by PKR and opposition leaders in west Malaysia because they do not understand how he works or how the tribal elements in Sabah have an influence, especially among rural voters.

Pairin is perhaps the last of the few visionary politicians Sabah has produced in the last 50 years, among them the late Tun Fuad Stephens.

Both Pairin and Fuad were conferred the title "Huguan Siou" or paramount leader, by the Kadazan Dusun Cultural Association (KDCA), an organisation that is the de facto body that upholds the cultural traditions and spirit of a people. It is a title not given easily; one that, unlike datukships, cannot be bought but must be earned by deed and merit.

Unlike Fuad, however, Pairin has struggled to appeal across voter factions as BN has consistently used religious sentiments to paint Pairin as a threat to Muslim influence in the state.

But Pairin achieved something extraordinary with PBS ― he managed to capture most of the non-Muslim Bumiputera vote while swaying over the fickle Chinese demographic.

The Chinese in Sabah are a group that, unlike the Chinese in the Peninsula, are not as alienated from the local Bumiputera. Intermarriage between Chinese and local natives is so prevalent, they have become their own demographic ― the "sinos" or half-Chinese. This demographic is one that can swing either way as unpredictable as the winds that gave Sabah its nickname of "land below the wind."

Only in Sabah, should a Chinese man marry a Bumiputera woman, his child will still be entitled to Bumiputera status on condition that the parents apply for a Sijil Anak Negeri for the child. As long as one parent has native rights, the child retains those native rights.

The mother of all battles

Posted: 23 Apr 2013 12:13 PM PDT

Although it's a high stakes game for both, in the final analysis, Ghani probably has more to lose.

Oon Yeoh, The Sun Daily

IN the months leading up to the polls, the general sense that everyone had was that the Lembah Pantai battle between PKR's Nurul Izzah and Umno's Raja Nong Chik Raja Zainal Abidin would be the one to watch. Nothing would be more exciting.

Even when DAP's Lim Kit Siang announced he would be contesting in Johor, of all places, that in itself would not have eclipsed the Lembah Pantai contest. However, when Umno decided to field former Johor mentri besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman to defend Gelang Patah, it became THE contest to watch.

This is, to borrow a phrase from Saddam Hussein, "the mother of all battles" in GE13. No other contest involving any other national level leader would be this exciting. Not even close.

Most of us probably had not heard of Gelang Patah before this. Like many constituencies in Johor, it's a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold. Despite the fact that it has a slight Chinese majority demographic, it managed to withstand the political tsunami that swept through most of Peninsular Malaysia in 2008.

Gelang Patah was firmly in MCA's grip through four election cycles. In 2004, its candidate Tan Ah Eng had a whopping majority of more than 30,000 votes. Although her majority was decreased to slightly under 9,000 votes in 2008, it was still a comfortable margin.

So, why is Kit Siang doing this? There are multiple reasons. One very basic one is to win a new parliamentary seat for DAP. This is something he has done throughout his career, moving from one constituency to another and establishing new strongholds for his party.

He stumbled once, in 1999, when he tried to win a new seat for DAP in Penang and lost. But he came back and managed to take a new seat for DAP in Perak in 2004. Overall his track record is pretty impressive.

But going to Johor is not just about winning an additional seat for his party. There is some psychological warfare at play here. It's about striking into the heart of BN country, much like how PAS's Datuk Husam Musa is contesting in Putrajaya.

It does wonders to boost the morale of his party and the Opposition coalition.

When Kit Siang chose Gelang Patah, he probably thought he would end up going against Jason Teoh, a relative lightweight next to him. Even if MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek had taken up his challenge to contest there, Kit Siang probably figured he could win rather easily.

BN responded with a shock-and-awe strategy by fielding Ghani, without question the biggest name in Johor politics. And he's not some divisive figure like Ibrahim Ali or Zulkifli Noordin, but rather a leader with a genuinely moderate image who is seen to have done a good job as mentri besar.

This surely would have taken Kit Siang by surprise but it's not something that will rattle him. He's battled big names before. In 1986, he took on then rising star Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon, and won. Then in 1990, he took on the legendary Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu and won. Will he be able to score a hat-trick?

To analyse the odds, one has to look at the demographics. About 53% of the electorate is Chinese, 34% Malays and 13% Indian.

A lot of different voting configurations have been bandied about but there seems to be general sense that Kit Siang has to win at least 70% of the Chinese votes, 50% of the Indian votes and 20% of the Malay votes to defeat Ghani.

Will he be able to garner at least 70% of the Chinese votes? Most political observers seem to think so. Whether he can get at least 50% and 20% of the Indian and Malay votes, respectively is another thing. That's the big unknown.

Next, let's look at the prospects for these men. Both Ghani and BN have to win in order for Ghani to still have any political career to speak of. If Ghani wins but BN loses, he doesn't have much to look forward to as an opposition MP.

If Ghani loses but BN wins, his career is over as he probably won't be made a minister via senatorship in a BN cabinet.

In contrast, if Kit Siang wins but Pakatan Rakyat (PR) loses, he would be regarded as a hero who's set the stage for a further onslaught into BN territory in the next election, much like what he did in Perak (he won in 2004 and by 2008, PR was able to win that state).

If Kit Siang loses but PR wins, it's almost certain he would be made a senator in a PR cabinet.

So, although it's a high stakes game for both, in the final analysis, Ghani probably has more to lose. One thing's for sure though, the whole nation will be watching the outcome of this most exciting contest in Gelang Patah.

Oon Yeoh is a columnist for theSun and editor of the book Tipping Points – Viewpoints on the reasons for, and impact of, the March 8 election earthquake.

Buying support - Najib's 'commercialisation' of GE13

Posted: 23 Apr 2013 12:08 PM PDT

Bridget Welsh, Malaysiakini

The billion ringgit question of this campaign is how much is being spent in the 2013 general election campaign and who is paying for it?
Throughout the country, voters are already reporting early efforts to woo the electorate such as special grocery vouchers of RM300 in Sandakan and handouts of RM50 to attend a Umno meeting in Tanjong Malim, among many others.

br1m 2.0 launch by najib razak 2

The promise of more goodies on the way is being repeated over and over, from the symbolic extension and increase of BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia) to more general 'assistance'.

The use of electoral incentives is well-known and honed, but there is a fundamental shift in the overall pattern this time round. Scholars such as Universiti Sains Malaysia emeritus professor Francis Loh have described the electioneering pattern as from one of patronage to 'developmentalism', where voters have moved from relying on everyday personal ties and relations with politicians to the promise of development projects.

In this election, a new pattern of commercialisation has emerged, where the 'You help me, I help you' and 'Let's make a deal' mantras are framing the campaign in what is crassly an economic exchange.

The base money flows, materialism and expensive brand marketing in GE13 cannot be understated, as they represent the dominant strategic mode of BN's campaign.

Najib's RM58bil election primer

Incumbent Prime Minister Najib Razak has systematically adopted this strategy since taking office in April 2009.

He knew he inherited a difficult terrain, and more importantly, he would need to win seats. In the four years before he dissolved parliament to get his own mandate, he engaged in arguably the most expensive election primer in Southeast Asia, and by far the most expensive in Malaysian history.

Gleaned from over 4,000 news reports since April 2009 and a study of the three budgets/supplemental budgets (2010-2013), I conservatively estimate that his administration has spent a total of RM57.7 billion from after he took over as PM to just before the dissolution of parliament on election-related incentives.

(The primary sources of these electoral-related pledges are from national news agency Bernama.)

The two main components of this largess are politically targeted distributions and 1Malaysia spending. These measures are inherently political as not only are they framed as political tools, they are being openly been touted as a reason to support the BN at the voting booth.

azlan

As shown in the table, the main share of the election primer is not BR1M in the overall 1Malaysia programmes - this only amounted to RM5.6 billion - but other measures including salary increases and targeted populist initiatives in areas such as school construction from money administered through the PM's Office.

Targeted items include money to taxi drivers, repeated allocations for fisher folks, special allocations for the Danga development project in Johor, a rice subsidy for Orang Asli, special settlement for housing in Hulu Selangor, tricycle 50 percent subsidy support for those in agribusiness, subsidised discounts for students on trains, solar energy subsidies and so much more.

br1m 2.0 launch by najib crowd

The estimate excludes money spent on special infrastructure projects, which have the spillover of government contracts. These have increased, especially in the defence sector.

Please note that this spending only captures public spending, and excludes the non-transparent donations of mass dinners, entertainers and use of jets provided free by government-linked private businessmen.

I also exclude the repeated announcements of treating different communities to a meal and drink, as the reports are only the tip of the iceberg for this funding. This estimate, and this is only what it can be seen to be an estimate, also does not fully capture the spending by the BN-linked 1Malaysia NGOs, whose funding sources remain ambiguous.

Kredit: www.malaysia-today.net

Rabu, 24 April 2013

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

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