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| Fallacies are not truths (UPDATED with Chinese Translation) Posted: 28 Apr 2013 06:35 PM PDT
However, I have monitored the news reports from both the mainstream media and alternative media over the last week since Nomination Day and what are the issues they are talking about? We are focused on discussing the symptoms of the disease. We are ignoring the causes of the disease. So how can the fence-sitters be sure about who is going to make a better government? NO HOLDS BARRED Raja Petra Kamarudin I would like to refer to the very convincing letter by Robert Leong below, which was published in The Malaysian Insider. It is a good letter, I must admit, but we must be very careful that we do not regard fallacies as historical facts and then end up doing wishful thinking rather than political strategising. Robert Leong said, "For the first time in recent memory we, the rakyat, have the option to vote to either maintain the status quo, or to radically change the government of this nation by handing the baton to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition." That is a fallacy. We have always had the option to vote for another party other than the ruling party ('ruling party' meaning the Alliance Party in 1955 and Barisan Nasional in 1974). PAS was founded in 1948 as the Parti Orang Muslimin Malaya (Hizbul Muslimin) and re-registered as the Pan-Islamic Malayan Party (PIMP) in 1955. The name was later changed to Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) during the Asri Muda era in the 1970s. The Labour Party (LPM) was founded in 1952, the People's Progressive Party (PPP) in 1953, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in 1965, and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) in 1968. PAS, LPM, PPP, DAP and Gerakan all contested the 1969 General Election as opposition parties and gave the ruling Alliance Party a whacking of its life. In between that were many other opposition parties, mainly 'splinter' parties of PAS, Umno and/or Barisan Nasional. We had Parti Bersatu Rakyat Jelata Sabah (BERJAYA) in 1976. Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (BERJASA) in 1977. Parti Hizbul Muslimin Malaysia (HAMIM) in 1983. Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) in 1985. Semangat 46 in 1988. Parti Keadilan Nasional in 1999. And many more (especially in East Malaysia). In terms of coalitions, we had Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah and Gagasan Rakyat in 1990 and 1995, Barisan Alternatif in 1999 and 2004, and Pakatan Rakyat in 2008 and now, 2013. Hence for 12 general elections and one municipal election since 1955, two years before Merdeka, we always had choices of parties and coalitions. It is just that we never accepted these choices (and everyone will offer all sorts of reasons and excuses as to why we did not accept these choices). Hence, also, Robert Leong's statement that "For the first time in recent memory we, the rakyat, have the option to vote to either maintain the status quo, or to radically change the government of this nation…." is not correct. That is what I mean by fallacy. We always had choices. It is just that we did not care. Now, apparently we do. But that does not mean this is the first time we have a choice. This is the first time we care. In the past we did not care. Robert Leong then said, "Many of us have already made our minds up as to which political party we shall vote for. However, there is still a large segment of the voting population that has not. These voters constitute the 'fence-sitters'." This is true. I have always said that there are between 20-40% fence-sitters, depending on which election we are talking about and which segment of the population plus region that we look at. For the Chinese voters, the fence-sitters could be as low as 10% in some areas and 20-25% in some. There are about 20% Malay fence-sitters and as high as 40% in some areas. The Indian and natives of East Malaysia fence-sitters are about the same as the Malays depending on which constituency you look at. On average, a 25% fence-sitter voter population would be a safe estimate. Now, the rest of Robert Leong's letter explains the reasons why we need a change of government but I do not need to dissect his arguments. Mostly are correct. What I do wish to talk about, however, is that all these reasons cited by Robert Leong have basically remained unchanged for a long time. In others words, the reasons Robert Leong gave as to why we need a change of government are the same reasons we gave for more than 40 years since the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Nothing has changed. We are still facing the same problems now as we did over the last 40 years. These are, as what many Malaysia Today readers are fond of saying, 'nothing new'. However, I have monitored the news reports from both the mainstream media and alternative media over the last week since Nomination Day and what are the issues they are talking about? We are focused on discussing the symptoms of the disease. We are ignoring the causes of the disease. So how can the fence-sitters be sure about who is going to make a better government? They are telling us about everything that is wrong with the country. We know what is wrong with the country. We have been telling you ourselves what is wrong with the country but you would not listen. What we need to know is how are you going to fix all these problems? That is what is missing in this election campaign. Okay, let us agree that the country has gone to the dogs. But what do we need to do to save this country? Well, we need to change the government, you will say. Okay, let us also agree that the solution is we need to change the government. Now, can you tell us how this new government is going to address all the issues that make Malaysia a poorly governed nation? Number one problem: corruption, mismanagement of the country's resources, and wastage of public funds. Number two problem: racism, discrimination, persecution and religious intolerance. Number three problem: no respect for fundamental rights, no civil liberties, and no freedom of thought, freedom of association and freedom of religious beliefs. In a corporate turnaround exercise, we normally tackle the top three problems and once the top three problems are solved we would normally solve about 90% of the problems. So let us talk about the top three problems and ask: have all the politicians who are campaigning in the general election addressed all these issues in their ceramah? ****************************************** An appeal to fence-sitters Robert Leong, The Malaysian Insider Dear fellow Malaysians, After almost 56 years of uninterrupted, one-coalition rule by the Alliance and its successor, Barisan Nasional (BN), we have reached a critical juncture in the history of Malaysia. Despite misgivings about the handling of the forthcoming 2013 general election by the Election Commission, this election provides ordinary Malaysian citizens with the best opportunity to stake a decisive claim to the future governance of their nation. For the first time in recent memory we, the rakyat, have the option to vote to either maintain the status quo, or to radically change the government of this nation by handing the baton to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition. Your vote will be crucial because at this time the likelihood of which coalition will win is too close to call. Many of us have already made our minds up as to which political party we shall vote for. However, there is still a large segment of the voting population that has not. These voters constitute the "fence-sitters," for want of a better term, and it is to them that I am directing this appeal. I appeal to you to ensure that your vote will be a serious reflection of what you dearly wish for your country and for your children's future. Please do your due diligence to assess the political parties that are contesting this election. Specifically, consider the track record of BN as a barometer of its ability, or inability, to properly govern Malaysia. We Malaysians are now a people that are divided in race and socio-economic class more than ever before. Racial and religious slurs from bigots such as Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin go unchecked. Corruption has reached dizzying heights, contributing to a massive illicit capital outflow of RM870 billion over the past 10 years. We are faced with a rising national debt equivalent to 53 per cent of our gross domestic product in 2012 that is forecasted to approach RM1 trillion by 2020. Despite decades of pro-Bumiputera policies that seem to benefit mainly the cronies of the ruling BN class, some of whom have disproportionately made billions, poverty continues unabated, affecting particularly rural Malays, Indians and indigenous people. Illegal drug addiction continues to plague the poor, and crime is prevalent despite rosy official statistics. Disclosures of significant scandals, such as the Port Klang Free Zone, National Feedlot Corporation ("Cowgate") and Scorpene submarine scandals committed by members and relatives of the ruling BN parties are still awaiting resolution. Pillar institutions such as the judiciary and the legislative have been so severely compromised since Dr Mahathir Mohamad's time in office that they can no longer provide the necessary checks and balances that a true democracy demands and expects. Prosecutory decisions by the Inspector-General of Police and the Attorney-General are now viewed with suspicion and scorn by the general public. Partisan coverage of political events in the mainstream media, almost wholly owned by the ruling parties, which denigrates the federal opposition and even falsifies news are considered the norm. Deaths in police custody are hushed up and police brutality goes unpunished. Justice for the deaths of Altantuya Shaariibuu, Aminurasyid Amzah, Ahmad Sarbani, Kugan Ananthan and Teoh Beng Hock, among many others, remains but an elusive hope for their grieving families. Shenanigans such as manufactured sex videos to smear prominent federal opposition figures, miscarriage of justice such as in the sodomy case against Anwar Ibrahim and in the murder case of Altantuya, and persecution and demonisation of non-governmental organisations such as the coalition for clean and fair elections Bersih and the human rights group Suaram are rampant. In fact, the only sex video that has been validated was that exposing an extra-marital affair of Dr Chua Soi Lek, who is now president of the MCA, a BN coalition partner. Substantial numbers of phantom voters continue to exist that the pliant Election Commission refuses to clean up, and a citizenship-for-votes scandal in Sabah is now being unearthed. Voting constituencies have been gerrymandered to provide an unfair advantage to the ruling BN coalition such that in the last general election BN won a disproportionate 112 of the 139 smallest seats with a simple majority to form the federal government with just 19 per cent of the total voter population. Last but not least, the hostility shown by the BN coalition towards clean and fair elections as advocated by Bersih is telling, for why would a legitimate government be opposed to this basic tenet of democracy? In contrast, in a short span of five years, Pakatan Rakyat has shown itself capable of ruling the states under its control with competency and transparency. The states of Penang and Selangor have received commendations from the Auditor-General for their fiscal rectitude by achieving surpluses that put the BN-controlled states to shame. Please take all of the above into consideration when you make your final decision on which party to vote for, come Election Day. I hope that you will vote decisively according to your morals and conscience for the good of the rakyat and for the betterment of your country. Every vote counts, so please vote wisely as the stakes are high. The results of this election could decide the fate of our beloved country. ********************************************* 谬论不是真理 无论如何，自从上个礼拜提名日后我不断的关注主流媒体和其他媒体的新闻，但他们谈的都是些什么东西？他们着重的都是疾病的症兆而把疾病的病因都给忽略掉了，那你要这些中间选民如何知道那个党派将会是更好的政府呢？ 原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin 译文：方宙 我想对梁先生Robert Leong刊登在大马内幕者一篇很具说服力的文章发表看法。我必须承认那是一封很好的信，但我们必须很小心，不可把谬论当成历史事实，否则我们很可能只是纸上谈兵而不是提出具体的政治战略。 梁先生说："最近记忆以来，这是人民第一次有机会投票选择保持现状，或把指挥棒交给民联来个根本彻底的改变。"（"For the first time in recent memory we, the rakyat, have the option to vote to either maintain the status quo, or to radically change the government of this nation by handing the baton to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition." ） 这是个谬论，因为一直以来我们都有机会选择执政党以外的其他政党（这里的执政党指的是1955年后的联盟和1974年后的国阵）。 工党Labour Party (LPM)于1952年成立，人民进步党Progressive Party(PPP)于1953年，民主行动党Democratic Action Party (DAP)于1965年，而民政党Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan)则于1968年。这四个政党都参与1969年大选而把当时的执政党联盟打得跪地求饶。 往后期间出现了很多反对党，它们大多数都是伊党，巫统或国阵分解出来的'碎片'，计有于1976年成立的Parti Bersatu Rakyat Jelata Sabah (BERJAYA)，1977年的Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (BERJASA)，1983年的Parti Hizbul Muslimin Malaysia (HAMIM)，1985年的Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS)，1988年的46精神党Semangat 46，1999年的Parti Keadilan Nasional。。。。等等，不尽其数(东马尤数更多)。 所以说，自1955年（独立前两年）以来，在12次国家大选和1次市政府选举里，我们一直都有不同的政党和联盟可以选择。问题是，我们都不选择这些反对党而已（所有人一定都会跳出来给他们不选择这些反对党的原因和借口）。故此，梁先生所讲的"最近记忆以来，这是人民第一次有机会选择投票保持现状，或来个根本彻底的改变。。。"是不正确的。 这就是我讲这是个谬论的所在。我们有得选，问题是我们无心去理会而已。现在看来我们已开始关心了，但那并不代表过去我们没有选择，过去我们是毫不关心。 梁先生接下去说到："我们当中很多人已经决定要把票投给哪个政党了，但还有大部分的选民还未做出决定，这些选民就是所谓的'墙头草'。"（"Many of us have already made our minds up as to which political party we shall vote for. However, there is still a large segment of the voting population that has not. These voters constitute the 'fence-sitters'."） 这是真的，我已经讲过了，中间选民占了20-40%，视乎我们谈及的是哪一届大选，选民的年龄层，和选区等。 对华裔选民来说，某些地区的中间选民可以低至10%而其他的可以有20-25%。马来中间选民可以在某些选区占有20%而其他选区可以高达40%。印度选民和东马土著也和马来选民拥有大致一样的巴仙率，都是很视选区而不同的。 总体来讲，中间选民大约占了25%，你可以把这25%看成个合理的数字。 梁先生接下来提到的都是我们要改朝换代的原因。我在此不必一一剖解，他大致上都讲得很对。但，我必须指出的是，他所引用的原因都是那些老久前就存在的问题了。 换句话说，梁先生所谈及到的原因和我们在70，80，90年代时提起的都是一样的。40年来情况并没有改变，我们还是面对着同样的问题。这就像是很多MT读者喜欢讲的'没什么新意嘛'。 无论如何，自从上个礼拜提名日后我不断的关注主流媒体和其他媒体的新闻，但他们谈的都是些什么东西？他们着重的都是疾病的症兆而把疾病的病因都给忽略掉了，那你要这些中间选民如何知道那个党派将会是更好的政府呢？ 他们所报的都是我们国家的问题，我们都知道我们国家出了什么问题。我们已经重复又重复地告诉你们我们出的是什么问题了，但你们从来都没听进耳朵里面。我们现在想知道的是你们要如何把这些问题给解决掉？ 这是那些竞选活动都没有碰到的。 好了，就让我们都认同我们国家真的是'代誌很大条'，那我们应该怎样来打救我们的国家呢？你说，我们必须要换上新政府，那好，让我们都认同我们必须换新政府。那现在新政府上位了，请问你能否告诉我这个新政府会以什么方式把马来西亚给'医'好呢？ 问题一：贪污，不当管理国家资源，浪费公帑。 问题二：种族主义，歧视，人身骚扰，宗教排斥 问题三：基本权利不被尊重，没有民间自主，没有思想、集会、宗教自由。 在企业界里，我们在面对困境时通常会圈出三个最大的问题。如果我们能把这三个大问题给解决掉，那我们大约就解决掉了所有问题的90%。所以让我们专注在以上这三个问题，然后我想问的是：那些所有参加此届大选的候选人，他们在助选会/讲座会上都谈到这些问题了吗？ |
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