Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- Pakatan, BN economic pledges: A comparison
- GE13: Khalid Jaafar: The unknown local in Hulu Selangor
- Not all is fine in PKR dynasty
- Terengganu support for Pas eroding
- The seeds of Malaysia's 'social media election'
- Ghani's Gelang Patah move changes everything in Johor?
- Who will the Suluks support?
| Pakatan, BN economic pledges: A comparison Posted: 07 Apr 2013 07:55 PM PDT
Pakatan's manifesto relies heavily on dismantling BN's handiwork, whereas BN pledges to expand the economy without a glance backwards. Anisah Shukry, FMT Although Pakatan Rakyat has accused Barisan Nasional of copying its manifesto, a comparison of their economic pledges leaves the impression that the opposition coalition is out of its depths. To begin with, Pakatan falls noticeably short with regard to creating jobs for locals. Its manifesto says it will generate one million new jobs simply by reducing foreign labour. This means that under Pakatan, the new jobs available for Malaysians will be of the non-skilled variety: waiting on tables, cleaning the streets, mixing cement. In Pakatan's own words, these jobs are in plantations, the construction sector and the service industry. In contrast, BN has promised 3.3 million new jobs, two million of which are in the high-income sector. This will be achieved not through driving out the people currently occupying those jobs, but by attracting new investments worth RM1.3 trillion. Whether either of them will succeed is a big question mark, but credit must be given to BN for having more vision – or better job offers. Floor wage But Pakatan promises a floor monthly wage slightly above RM1,000. BN has promised a slightly lower wage of RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for Sabah and Sarawak. With the figures cutting so close, they are barely worth comparing. But keeping in mind the uproar BN's minimum wage has caused among employers – critics are claiming prices will soar and cash outflow will become "cash outflood" – one could conclude that things would be worse if Pakatan's higher floor wage were to be implemented. According to media reports, BN is relying on a cash-less solution to the foreseen problems – by deferring implementation to July. Pakatan's solution is to dip into public coffers and create a so-called Minimum Wage Implementation Facilitation Fund worth RM2 billion. Neither one is guaranteed to succeed, but Pakatan's minimum wage and the solutions to the problems that will come with it will clearly cost taxpayers and employers more money. Taxes Pakatan says that the income band will be broadened so that the 26% tax rate will be payable for taxable income exceeding RM400,000, compared with the current RM250,000. This is apparently to prevent a situation where millionaires pay the same tax rate as executives in the private sector. But since the existing tax rates are not increasing to compensate for the fact that fewer people will be paying them, far less money will enter the governments' coffers. Meanwhile, although taxable income remains the same under BN, the ruling coalition has vowed to lower individual and corporate taxes across the board, in stages. Again, that's obviously less money for the government, but without knowing BN's exact tax rates, the jury is still out on whether Pakatan's or BN's tax options are better for the economy. Small and medium industries
While the benefits BN and Pakatan have outlined for SMIs both lack detail, Pakatan's is less impressive as it appears to be a shallow retread of what BN has already accomplished. Pakatan has the National Innovation Fund totalling RM500 million "to strengthen the copyright industry and idea bank" and "to promote the commercialisation of ideas and inventions". It also aims to "coordinate and promote SMI financing by financial institutions". But BN's manifesto points out that it has already facilitated funding for SMIs through a RM1 billion fund managed by the SMI Bank, provided RM2 billion from 2008 to 2013 to Tekun for small-scale entrepreneurs and established Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia, which provides micro credit facilities for small-scale entrepreneurs, mostly women. And to match Pakatan's National Innovation Fund, BN has unspecified "special incentives" for "innovative and creative ventures" on top of a "transformation plan" and the establishment of a National Trading Company to source overseas markets for SMI products.
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| GE13: Khalid Jaafar: The unknown local in Hulu Selangor Posted: 07 Apr 2013 02:47 PM PDT
Pathma Subramanian, fz.com YOU would think that being a homegrown candidate would give one the upper hand in the face of a tough challenge in a general election. But Parti Keadilan Rakyat's (PKR) Khalid Jaafar has proved that adage wrong not once, but three times. Khalid, widely tipped as PKR's candidate for the parliamentary constituency of Hulu Selangor in the upcoming general election, now faces a different challenge as he tackles a whole new electorate. But he is undaunted and insists he can pull off an upset in the largely rural seat. Though he may seem like a new face in Malaysian politics, the former journalist has experience contesting in (and losing) general elections: he had previously stood as candidate in the constituencies of Batu Berendam and later in Bukit Katil, Malacca since 1999. Now, he's shifting his election hopes to Hulu Selangor. The executive director of the Institute for Policy Research (IKD) however rejected the notion that being parachuted to Hulu Selangor would be a disadvantage after having operated in Malacca for 14 years. "Although the normal thing is to go back to your roots to contest, I think is a fallacy," Khalid told fz.com. "I was born in Batu Berendam, Malacca, yes but at the age of 15 I went to boarding school in Seremban and I would only visit during school holidays. I didn't have much interaction with the peers in my age group in my village. After graduating from college, I started working and eventually settled down in Selangor, where I've been since. "The only time we used to go back after that was for Hari Raya or to visit our parents. I have no engagement with the people (there). "This is what happened to most us in PKR – we went back to our kampung after 10 years and some even 20 years – thinking that people know you but the truth is, they forget you. You were not at their weddings or funerals, you were not there for their youth activities – you're detached." Challenging Ghafar Baba Khalid had his first taste of the political contest in 1999 when he challenged the late Tun Abdul Ghafar Baba for the Batu Berendam parliamentary seat. Khalid, who was standing under the Parti Keadilan Nasional (PKN) banner, lost to the Umno veteran and former deputy prime minister by 7,105 votes. PKN was, at that time, part of a loose coalition known as the Barisan Alternatif, made up of DAP, PKN, Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) and PAS, which was formed in the wake of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's sacking as deputy prime minister and from Umno, and his subsequent arrest. Khalid is a close ally of Anwar, having worked as the latter's press secretary from the time he was education minister in the 1980s until he became deputy prime minister. Yet Khalid remained averse to joining Umno to pursue a career in politics and instead dreamt of life in academia. But the antipathy against politics did not last long as the injustice targetted against his former boss prompted him to take a lead role in helping form PKN in 1999. "I know of all that can go wrong but in 1998 it was something really extraordinary. Right after Anwar's arrest, there was a witch hunt. I had to go into hiding. I left everything behind and hid in Jakarta for six months. "That's when I made a choice to help build a political movement – just ordinary dissent was not enough. We knew we had to take a frontal struggle and politics is the only way it can be done," he said, shuddering at the thought of the distant memory. A delineation exercise prior to the 2004 general polls saw Batu Berendam divided into the parliamentary constituencies of Bukit Katil and Tangga Batu, prompting Khalid to contest again after PKN merged with PRM to form the present PKR. But the 58-year-old tasted defeat once more as he lost against Umno's Datuk Mohd Ruddin Abdul Ghani by a whopping 27,252 votes in the contest for Bukit Katil. Although the saying goes "third time's lucky", this adage too did little to help Khalid when he faced off against Umno's Datuk Md Sirat Abu in the 2008 general election for the same seat. He lost, but this time by 1,758 votes despite the opposition's new pact, Pakatan Rakyat, making substantial inroads to Parliament. "In 2008, I would have won had there been indelible ink. I lost by about 1,700 votes, I needed 900 votes. There were incidences of dubious voters that we heard of but I didn't have enough polling agents at that time," said Khalid sounding rather dejected.
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| Not all is fine in PKR dynasty Posted: 06 Apr 2013 05:03 PM PDT
TURBULENCE: President's non-candidacy points to looming trouble Nurul Izzah must have been slighted on the notion that her mother was being sidelined completely this time around. It is as if Dr Wan Azizah had outlived her usefulness and her party post is just lip service to show a semblance of respect. Syed Umar Ariff, NST THERE was a time when opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim celebrated the formation of a family dynasty in Parti Keadilan Rakyat, as his wife was made president and daughter, vice-president. He was always smiling and proud before a battery of camera flashes during "joint family" press conferences alongside Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Nurul Izzah Anwar. PKR had become such a personal party to one man. In this writer's opinion, such familial ties in the party's top echelon have provided a shield for Anwar against any sort of impending coup by his lieutenants. Political greenhorns and relatives are not likely to cross that line. He was quite comfortable being a ketua umum and used "merit" as the reason why his family members had made it as top leaders. For years, allegations of nepotism, which have also been hounding DAP for a similar reason, did not leave Anwar perturbed -- until recently. In trying to assuage mounting criticisms, Anwar has decided to announce Dr Wan Azizah's non-candidacy, despite strong rumours that she would be contesting in Selangor and which some claim should contribute to an easy win for PKR. His decision was confirmed by PKR election director and deputy president Azmin Ali during an interview with Al-Jazeera. But Nurul Izzah has since refuted her father's statement and reduced it to mere "political talk". For quite sometime, observers among members of the media from print and online to pro-government and otherwise, have noted a subtle undercurrent of antagonism between Anwar and Nurul Izzah. Many have commented that both have not been exhibiting the usual familial closeness. Some claimed that during a political dialogue, Nurul Izzah walked off the stage as soon as Anwar entered the venue to give his speech. She did not even stop for a chat. Casual observations aside, Nurul Izzah's comment on Anwar's announcement which watered down his credibility as a decision-maker, may lend some weight to talk of friction between father and daughter. If nothing else, a communication breakdown is obvious. How does a party vice-president move to assert her function when such an important announcement was not made known to her? Her mother, PKR president Dr Wan Azizah, who vacated her parliamentary seat to make way for Anwar as opposition leader in 2008, has already been made redundant in the party. She is now a presidential puppet and, at best, PKR's de facto women's wing chief. While Anwar may have removed her from candidacy due to pressure to stop the practice of nepotism, it is also known that Dr Wan Azizah had, from time to time, served only as a means to ensure his political survival. She had helmed the party when her husband was imprisoned and later became the opposition leader, only to save the post until Anwar's return to mainstream politics. The soft-spoken 60-year-old even held out her hands to help Anwar stand up, in a public display of affection -- or perhaps sympathy -- before the media during PKR's annual convention down south two years ago. Azizah has yet to speak on this controversy. But in the end, she is widely expected to accept the decision to prevent further strain in family ties that would ultimately affect PKR's journey into the election. Nurul Izzah must have been slighted on the notion that her mother was being sidelined completely this time around. It is as if Dr Wan Azizah had outlived her usefulness and her party post is just lip service to show a semblance of respect. The 32-year-old must have also thought that her mother, befitting her stature as party president, should at least be regarded as important enough to contest in the toughest election yet. The situation now, judging from the current circumstances, can be quite telling; not all is fine and dandy within the PKR family dynasty.
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| Terengganu support for Pas eroding Posted: 06 Apr 2013 04:57 PM PDT
Actions speak louder than words and going by that adage, the action that the Barisan Nasional government has taken since wresting Terengganu from Pas in the 2004 general election could stave off the opposition's challenge in GE13, writes Satiman Jamin Satiman Jamin, NST THOSE who think of Terengganu as an idyllic holiday destination without much to show in terms of development will be in for a surprise if they visit the state today. From the state capital to the industrial hub in Kemaman, Terengganu has seen rapid transformation from various programmes and initiatives taken by the state government since taking over from Pas in 2004. The RM5 billion Kuala Terengganu City Centre (KTCC) project aimed at transforming the state capital into a modern city while maintaining its traditional charm is already under way. Covering a 7km radius from the Terengganu river estuary, KTCC will be a magnet for domestic and foreign investments and was projected to create more than 80,000 jobs by 2020. Further south, the Kertih Biopolymer Park had attracted world giants from France and Korea to build a RM2 billion integrated bio-methionine and thiochemical plant, while the Teluk Kalong Industrial area in Kemaman will soon have its fourth steel mill. Of projects that affect the rakyat directly, the drive to build 10,000 affordable homes initiated by Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Said are among the most important. Despite the constraints of finding suitable sites and the rising cost of building materials, the state had managed to build 8,000 homes. Ahmad has pledged to build 10,000 more homes in the next five years if BN is returned to power in the 13th General Election. Based on the stellar performance of the state government over the last five years, BN has a good chance of not only retaining the 28 of the 32 state seats and six of the eight parliamentary seats but they could also retake some of the seats currently held by Pas. In the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency, which state Pas commissioner Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut won in the 2009 by-election following the death of Datuk Razali Ismail who defeated Pas deputy president Muhammad Sabu by 628 votes in 2008, Pas may face an uphill battle. This is because the support for Pas has eroded after the completion of the Ladang Gemilang apartments, which provided proper housing for squatters around the Kampung Ladang area. Pas had banked on its supporters of the three state seats (Ladang, Batu Burok and Wakaf Mempelam) in Kuala Terengganu to win the Parliamentary seat in the by-election, so the dwindling support in key areas like Ladang could hurt its chances this time around. The personality of candidates may also be a factor as Wahid is expected to recontest the Wakaf Mempelam state seat to pave the way for another candidate to contest the parliamentary seat. Pas will be hard-pressed to find a candidate that can rally the voters like the five-term veteran Wahid and this factor could turn the tide against them. With Pas having announced that Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) will be given a parliamentary seat in Terengganu and state PKR chairman Azan Ismail making way for the Pahang PKR chief in Indera Mahkota, Kuala Terengganu could be given to Azan to contest. BN is likely to field a new face in Kuala Terengganu and if the party can find a candidate who is popular, it would be an uphill battle for Pas to retain the seat. Even Pas president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang may not be safe in his Marang stronghold as the Marang BN's strategy is to wrest the seat by combining the strength of its four candidates in the Rhu Rendang, Alur Limbat, Pengkalan Berangan and Bukit Payung state seats. Hadi is expected to stand in Marang and let a younger candidate contest in Rhu Rendang. As party president, Hadi has not had the time to get close to his constituents over the past five years and this, combined with national issues such as the kalimah Allah controversy, has led to some Pas supporters in Marang to join Umno. Although the handful of people in Kampung Jerong Seberang who joined Umno in February may not cause much of a dent to Pas' influence in Marang, the fact that Umno managed to woo support from areas that were known to be Pas strongholds speaks volumes about the growing dissent among Pas supporters. Hadi's influence in Marang is not as strong as often projected in the media, as evident in the BN wins in Pengkalan Berangan and Alur Limbat in 2008. Bukit Payung can hardly be called a Pas stronghold as the Terengganu Pas Youth chief Mohd Nor Hamzah won the seat with only a 115 vote majority. Another state seat likely to go BN's way is Manir, which Pas Dewan Ulamak chief Datuk Harun Taib won by 406 votes. BN is likely to field popular local leader Yusof Awang Hitam, who put in a sterling performance, especially in providing services to the constituents. His initiative to provide a free health clinic on alternate Saturdays is a hit with the people of Manir and the approachable Yusof could give veteran Harun a tough fight if they were to face off at the polls. However, Pas has also managed to make inroads in some areas, especially Dungun. State Pas deputy commissioner Satiful Bahri Mamat has increased his efforts to wrest the Paka state seat from BN after losing by just 344 votes in 2008 and could be a threat if he contests there again in GE13. Kuala Nerus, Tepuh and Teluk Pasu have also seen increased Pas presence and BN must work extra hard to improve on the 430- and 462-vote majority in the two state seats. Unity within BN is also an important factor that will decide how the party fares in Terengganu this time. As highlighted by Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin during the launch of Gelombang Biru here recently, any rift among BN leaders and supporters must be eradicated if they want to win the state. Factions within Umno had surfaced after Ahmad replaced Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh as the menteri besar in 2008 and it is crucial that everyone puts that episode behind them and work together. Ahmad's announcement of his candidacy for the Kijal state seat on the day Parliament and the state assembly were dissolved on April 3 quelled rumours that he would not be contesting in GE13. It also showed that Ahmad, who prefers to act rather than just talk about issues, is in charge and will lead Terengganu BN in its quest to trounce Pas. And such clear signs of leadership is what BN needs to stave off the threat posed by Pas and Pakatan Rakyat during GE13.
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| The seeds of Malaysia's 'social media election' Posted: 06 Apr 2013 04:39 PM PDT
They culminated in 2008 in startling elections – which became known as the "political tsunami" - that saw the poorest showing for the ruling coalition since 1969. And yes, it was computers and mobile phones in urban areas and in the kampungs that helped bring about the change. With the next election imminent, in a country with one of the longest-ruling governments in the world, the noise online is rising to a crescendo. When everybody piles in, it's harder than ever to say who's telling the truth. Chen May Yee, Straits Times In 1996, as Kuala Lumpur correspondent for the Asian Wall Street Journal, I was sent to cover an event at a five-star hotel downtown. The guest of honour was Malaysia's then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The event was the launch of something called the Multimedia Super Corridor. Not sure what it's about, my boss said. See what you make of it. Like almost every official Malaysian event, it started late. But unlike most events, this time, even the prime minister was kept waiting. After the emcee kicked things off, the giant screen overhead stayed stubbornly blank, even as the voice-over began. Organisers panicked. The prime minister, his face dark, drummed his fingers on the arm of his chair. In front of some of Malaysia's biggest foreign investors – including officials from Microsoft and Intel – a technician found the problem: Somebody had tripped over a cable, yanking it out of its socket. It was not an auspicious start to Malaysia's big information technology push. At the time, I was probably not alone in underestimating Tun Mahathir's dream. An unfettered Internet? E-commerce? E-government? Computers in the kampungs? It all seemed far-fetched. I went back to my office and wrote something. My paper ran it inside the main section. But even Tun Mahathir could not have foreseen the extent to which the people would seize on his vision of a networked Malaysia. Or how they would use its new powers. Today, what Tun Mahathir articulated has come to pass. Malaysians now buy and sell products and services online. Most government departments have basic information and official forms on their Web sites. And an e-mailing, texting, Facebooking, Tweeting, Whatsapping populace can hardly imagine a time when they didn't. The biggest effect of this information revolution has been to open new avenues of public discussion. Lively exchanges on once taboo subjects such as official corruption and race relations are now all over the Web. The combination of multiplying Internet connections and the longtime hunger for alternative sources of news has been combustive. They culminated in 2008 in startling elections – which became known as the "political tsunami" - that saw the poorest showing for the ruling coalition since 1969. And yes, it was computers and mobile phones in urban areas and in the kampungs that helped bring about the change. With the next election imminent, in a country with one of the longest-ruling governments in the world, the noise online is rising to a crescendo. When everybody piles in, it's harder than ever to say who's telling the truth. But this is one cable that can't simply be yanked out of its socket again. This isn't being called the "social media election" for nothing. |
| Ghani's Gelang Patah move changes everything in Johor? Posted: 05 Apr 2013 06:59 PM PDT
Gelang Patah will be hotly contested seat as it could be fight between Lim Kit Siang and MB Abdul Ghani Othman and what would it mean for MCA? Chua Sue-Ann, fz.com PAKATAN RAKYAT's rapid momentum in Johor appears to have hit its first stumble now that Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman has offered to battle DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang in Gelang Patah. For starters, the two Johor-born politicians loom large in the political sphere and are well-known names in their own right. Lim is a household brand who embodies DAP's classic "street fighter" style of opposition politics on a national level. The mild-mannered Ghani, in contrast, is a familiar face in the state, having been menteri besar since 1995. Personalities aside, Gelang Patah is tipped to be the hottest seat to watch at the 13th general election due to the new dynamics that this epic battle brings. It significantly changes the early game for both sides of the political divide not just for Gelang Patah but the larger Johor landscape. What does this mean for MCA? Ghani, if he is fielded as BN's candidate for Gelang Patah, will raise many uncomfortable issues for MCA, who is already seen to be on a weaker footing going into the impending general election. Already, MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has disappointed those who were keen to see him take on Lim in a "clash of titans". Earlier last week, Chua declined to stand in Gelang Patah ostensibly because he had to "respect" the will of the grassroots. Soi Lek had argued that he couldn't usurp the position from local MCA grassroots leader Jason Teoh who has been working the ground in the constituency. By with the rapidly changing developments, Chua's argument appears to hold little water. "Soi Lek and MCA claim to be leaders of the Chinese community. This is all the more reason why Soi Lek should stand in Gelang Patah to take on Kit Siang," said a political observer, noting that Gelang Patah is after all a Chinese-majority urban seat. He added that Chua should emulate Tan Sri Lee San Choon who took up the challenge of standing against DAP's Dr Chen Man Hin in Seremban, a Chinese-majority DAP stronghold, in the 1982 general elections. Not only did Lee go on to beat Chen by a mere 845 votes, he led MCA to a huge victory - winning 24 out of 28 parliamentary seats and 55 out of 62 state seats contested. "That cemented MCA's position as the leader of the Chinese community," he said. Also, questions already abound as to why MCA would hand over its seat for Umno to defend. Does this confirm MCA's lack of confidence in winning Chinese support, the very community that it claims to represent? Strategically though, MCA could use Gelang Patah as a bargaining chip for a safer Johor seat, one that the Chinese-based party has a more realistic chance of winning. But it remains to be seen how well grassroot supporters and local warlords will receive MCA's plans to step aside for Umno in Gelang Patah. Pakatan is also expected to take the opportunity to criticise MCA for giving in to Umno's demands. What does this mean for DAP? Lim, going from his Ipoh Timur constituency to Gelang Patah, initially injected a much-needed boost for DAP and Pakatan Rakyat's bid to rattle the MCA and Umno in their stronghold state. Since Gelang Patah is a Chinese-majority urban seat, it was earlier thought that Lim will have little difficulty beating beat his MCA contender, Teoh. This is because federal opposition was banking on a surge of support from Johor's Chinese voters, and Barisan's earlier choice of candidate, Teoh, is a relative lightweight in comparison. But now, with Ghani in the fray, DAP will have to go back to the drawing board to alter its strategy somewhat. For one, DAP will now have to focus on attacking Ghani's credentials as menteri besar. At its many ceramahs, DAP has been campaigning on broader national issues of good governance and corruption scandals. But at this stage, it is uncertain if national issues will hold sway with Johor voters who had stood behind BN in the 2008 general election even though urban voters elsewhere swung towards the opposition. Although DAP is likely to still win high support levels from Chinese voters in Gelang Patah and Johor, Lim will need to shore up his appeal amongst Malay and Indian voters to ensure a win. To that end, Lim has to rely on PAS and PKR. Lim has already released what he termed "DAP's Gelang Patah Declaration", a blueprint to help uplift the Indian community's welfare if Pakatan triumphs. What does this mean for Pakatan's momentum? Ghani's entry into the right could be the uniting factor for Pakatan's three coalition partners - DAP, PKR and PAS. PAS and DAP have been working somewhat well together in the early stages of preparing groundwork and machinery for Johor. But DAP and PKR ties in Johor were strained after a much publicised spat between DAP Johor chairman Dr Boo Cheng Hau and Johor PKR chairman Datuk Chua Jui Meng. Even PKR party workers in Johor would not go as far as to say they were working well with DAP. But on Friday, Chua emerged from his self-imposed two-week break to address the press after his brief "leave of absence" drew concern of a fracture within Pakatan. All smiles, Chua appeared to offer an olive branch to DAP by wishing Boo well and maintaining that there was no hatchet to bury with his DAP counterpart. Chua even pledged to help DAP, saying "We are brothers in politics. There is a Chinese saying that the spears must point outwards, not inwards at ourselves". What does this mean for Ghani and Umno? In Johor, Umno has been reasonably comfortable that they still command a high level of support from Malay voters. Their only worry is with the Chinese and Indian voters because many Johor constituencies have a sizeable non-Malay electorate. It is learnt that it was Ghani himself who offered to fight Kit Siang after the latter made known that he would be vying for the Gelang Patah constituency. Umno sources say Ghani's closest associates sought to dissuade him. But about a week ago, BN decided that Ghani should go up against Kit Siang to help offset potential loss of non-Malay support, they say. "He himself was worried that they will lose the bastion during his time. Kit Siang's entry increases opposition ratings so all the MCA and MIC seats became danger zones. He felt he has to do something about it," said an Umno source. It is an open secret that Ghani will no longer be the menteri besar candidate for BN in Johor after 18 years in office. This is apparently due to the Sultan of Johor's preference to see a more dynamic menteri besar. But at the same time, Ghani is not keen to bow out of state politics and head back to a federal platform. Whatever happens in Gelang Patah and Johor, Ghani will still walk away a winner. If he defeats Kit Siang, Ghani's star will shine brighter within Umno and BN, thus putting him on a stronger political footing. And if he loses to Kit Siang, he can go out in a blaze of glory.
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| Posted: 05 Apr 2013 02:53 PM PDT
Observers believe that 'even a small swing' in Suluk support in some of the eastern-coast seats could be a nightmare for Sabah Umno candidates. Luke Rintod, TMI Sabah Umno leaders do not believe that the Suluk voters in Sabah have deserted them following the Tanduo stand-off in Lahad Datu between Sulu terrorists and Malaysian armed forces. "The majority of the Suluk voters are still with BN (Barisan Nasional)," said Nizam Abu Bakar Titingan, the principal political secretary to Sabah strongman, Musa Aman. Many in the BN component parties like PBS, UPKO, LDP, PBRS and MCA share Nizam's observation. But deep within the Suluk community in Sabah, cracks are appearing. If you talk to the ordinary Suluk men, the majority would still say they are "with the government". And their leaders, in NGOs, too are issuing statements supporting the establishment. The question now is can these Suluk supporters of BN be trusted. Remember the Tanduo incident when the armed Sulu terrorists from the Philippines hoisted a white flag signaling a surrender or peace? But while the white flag was hoisted, the Sulu terrorists shot dead two Malaysian armed forces. Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said our men were tricked. In which case could it be that the Suluk community is once again sending a decoy to BN, to eventually surprise them by a swing in the Suluk votes? Not so safe now Observers here observed that "even a small swing" in support from the community in some of the eastern coast seats could be a nightmare to some Umno candidates. The Lahad Datu and Tungku state seats and Silam parliamentary constituency (where Tanduo is) have consistently registered a huge dissenting votes against BN in previous elections. In the 2008 general election, the Lahad Datu state seat was won by Umno's Nasrun Mansur in a straight fight with PKR candidate, Zainuddin Zulkarnain. Nasrun chalked up 8,034 votes against Zainuddin's 4,976. Now five years later, observers note that support for the opposition had further increased. And now with the additional likely swing in Suluk votes, it's going to be a close fight especially if it is a one-to-one battle. In adjacent Tungku, also under the Silam parliamentary seat, and where the Tanduo action was, the situation is similar. Here too in 2008 the dissenting voices were strong. Umno's Suhaili Said won the seat for BN with a 4,828 votes but there were a substantial 2,446 votes that went to PKR's Jamal Sulai and another 164 votes for an independent. A slight shift in Suluk support here towards PKR could tilt the balance to a 50-50 or 45-55 situation, with Umno having only the slightest advantage. PAS, Anwar gaining ground Local observers said that if there is a 30% or more shift in the Suluk and Badjao communities, then BN is in for a run of its money in east coast. But Umno has never been more strong in the east coast than now. With financially powerful Badjao leader like Shafie Apdal from nearby Semporna, Lahad Datu and Tungku and Silam parliamentary seats could well be within BN's so-called fixed-deposit areas. With about RM6 billion annual development fund under his control in the federal Rural Development Ministry, Shafie is in pole position to influence the politics in Sabah's east coast. Shafie is an Umno vice-president and cannot afford to fail Umno in Sabah. If he falters in delivering seats to BN, then it would be the end of his political journey for him too. However, much to the dislike of Shafie and Sabah Umno, not all Suluk groups look up to or listen to the party anymore. They now have an alternative in PAS and the charismatic Anwar Ibrahim-led PKR. Both are known sympathisers of the Muslim community. And there is Usco (United Suluk Community Organisation). The youthful NGO has planned to put up election candidates against BN and Pakatan at the coming polls.
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