Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News
Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
- Battle will be fought on popularity, not policies
- Big win for BN - if see-saw voting trend continues
- Malay vote a stumbling block for Pakatan’s Perak quest
- Young voters may call the shots in Malaysia polls
| Battle will be fought on popularity, not policies Posted: 04 Apr 2013 06:17 PM PDT
But a significant number of urban voters and non-Malay voters have bought into the ABU sentiment. Hence the drastic weakening of support for Umno in urban areas. More importantly, several BN component parties were almost decimated in 2008 because voters wanted to punish Umno, or where Umno did not contest, they punished the contesting component party.
AT LAST, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced the dissolution of Parliament yesterday after obtaining royal consent from the King. Yesterday also marked the fourth anniversary of Datuk Seri Najib's premiership- he took over the helm from Tun Abdullah Badawi on April 3, 2009. Mr Abdullah was forced to step down after Barisan Nasional's (BN) weak performance in the 2008 general election. Mr Najib's announcement was not at all a surprise. Malaysia has been in election mode since the first week Mr Najib became Prime Minister. Right from the beginning, many people had expected him to seek a mandate by calling a snap election. But Mr Najib obviously thought differently. As a result, when the announcement was finally made, many Malaysians were relieved rather than surprised. The Election Commission will soon announce the dates for nomination and polling. Campaigning will start after Nomination Day. But that is just the formal process. In reality, campaigning started about two years ago, with handouts and goodies, or promises of handouts and goodies, being the most common campaign material. This election therefore is not a battle of serious policies. It is simply a battle of who can be more populist. Hence, we see a raft of proposals designed to win voters, such as welfare assistance policies. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) made a lot of such promises in its manifesto. The ruling BN coalition, on the other hand, does not just promise, but has been doing exactly that through various government agencies. It is no secret that this election will be the toughest for BN. Never in Malaysia's history has the coalition seen such a serious challenge. It is difficult to see PR winning Putrajaya, even though the chances of it doing so are much bigger than before. No one should discount the possibility of seeing a Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim driving into Putrajaya. The possibility certainly exists, but it is only a small one. What is more likely to happen is that PR would win more states. It is already the state government in Kedah, Kelantan, Penang and Selangor. PR actually won Perak too in 2008, but lost it to BN after the defections of several elected representatives. This time, PR has a real chance of retaining the four states, recapturing Perak and winning Negeri Sembilan. Even more worrying for BN are the inroads PR has made in states such as Johor, Pahang, Sabah and Sarawak. These used to be safe states for BN. Not any more. In Johor, many are complaining that the rapid development of Iskandar Malaysia has pushed the cost of living upwards too fast. For example, they find themselves unable to compete with non-Malaysians who are buying many new properties, thus pushing prices beyond their reach. In Pahang, environmental campaigners have put BN on the defensive over the controversial Lynas rare earth plant. PR has successfully transformed this into a partisan issue and is capitalising on it fully. In Sabah, the Lahad Datu intrusion has opened a can of worms for BN. Sabahans have long complained that their state is flooded with outsiders, allegedly as a result of an unwritten policy to increase the number of Muslims in the state. Some are questioning if the intruders had been given citizenship by the BN administration. The latest bombshell was in Sarawak, where relatives of Chief Minister Taib Mahmud were caught on video insulting Sarawakians. It will not be surprising if the natives choose to punish BN in this election. An additional factor that cannot be ignored is the level of unhappiness against Umno. The movement against BN is actually spearheaded by a movement against Umno. We see today an "anything-but-Umno" (ABU) sentiment being propagated among voters, but there is no such campaign against other BN component parties such as the Malaysian Chinese Association, Malaysian Indian Congress or Gerakan. Ironically, despite the ABU campaign, Umno itself remains quite strong because its bastion is in rural Malay areas, where the voters are less exposed to non-mainstream media. But a significant number of urban voters and non-Malay voters have bought into the ABU sentiment. Hence the drastic weakening of support for Umno in urban areas. More importantly, several BN component parties were almost decimated in 2008 because voters wanted to punish Umno, or where Umno did not contest, they punished the contesting component party. The protest against Umno continues today and it is likely to be a major hurdle preventing BN from doing better than in 2008. Having said that, BN has history and experience on its side. Malaysians have not seen any other party in power. Many remain BN supporters not necessarily because they believe in the BN agenda, but because they fear what would happen if the unproven PR takes over. Whichever way the votes go, it will be exciting to see Malaysians deciding the future of the country. |
| Big win for BN - if see-saw voting trend continues Posted: 04 Apr 2013 05:35 PM PDT
BN's best performance was in 1995, when the Malaysian economy was booming. The coalition received 65.1 per cent of the popular vote. Its worst performance in the last two decades was in the 2008 elections, barely staying above water with 50.3 per cent of the popular vote. The united opposition under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) took 46.75 per cent of the vote. Reme Ahmad, Straits Times
IF HISTORICAL patterns should hold true, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition should win more seats in the coming general election (GE), and a bigger slice of the popular vote. In the six elections since 1986, Malaysians have enthusiastically voted for BN in one election, only to turn against it in large numbers at the next outing. In the language of the stock market, after a big slide in the 2008 elections, the 13-party BN may be poised for a rebound in the 2013 General Election. Still, as promoters of unit trusts often say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. BN's best performance was in 1995, when the Malaysian economy was booming. The coalition received 65.1 per cent of the popular vote. Its worst performance in the last two decades was in the 2008 elections, barely staying above water with 50.3 per cent of the popular vote. The united opposition under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) took 46.75 per cent of the vote. Some basics first. There are a total of 222 seats in the federal Parliament. BN won 140 seats and the opposition PR alliance 82 in the 2008 GE. After defections, BN has 137 seats and PR 75, with 10 MPs declaring themselves as Independents. PR consists of the conservative Parti Islam SeMalaysia, the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party and the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). BN must win at least 112 seats to retain federal power. In the past, voters shied away from Umno-led BN after major party problems, such as the bitter fight former premier Mahathir Mohamad had with Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah that played out in the 1990 elections. By the next general election they were back, sickened by bickering in opposition ranks and as BN put its house in order. Twice in the last two decades, the vote against the status quo was led by a splinter group from Umno - Semangat 46 in 1990, and in 1999, by Parti Keadilan Nasional, which later changed its name to PKR. And three times in recent history, the opposition cobbled together alliances to take on BN. When that happens, historical data suggests, it tends to get more votes. This time around, the opposition is again united under a single banner. So, will Mr Najib enjoy more voter affection than his predecessor, Tun Abdullah Badawi, in 2008? Or will he be spurned too? The graph is easy enough to read. But Malaysia's voters are in an unpredictable mood. That makes the swings tougher to plot.
|
| Malay vote a stumbling block for Pakatan’s Perak quest Posted: 04 Apr 2013 03:13 PM PDT
Speaking on the sidelines of the event, several PR leaders admitted that Election 2013 would still be a toss-up between the opposition pact and BN, largely due to lukewarm support from the state's Malay voters. Clara Chooi, TMI Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim moved in on the Perak Malay vote last night by dangling his possible candidacy in the silver state for Election 2013 but earned mixed reactions in response — a telltale sign of trouble for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) here ahead of national polls. The prime minister-hopeful belted out a song, told amusing anecdotes and launched his signature charm offensive at two separate locations in Perak's quiet northeast — Lenggong and Gerik, both Malay-majority parliamentary seats and both popularly known as Umno fortresses. The two events drew sizeable mostly Malay-centric crowds, particularly in Gerik, and there was boisterous applause when Anwar was ushered onto the ceramah stage to speak but many in the audience appeared more curious than supportive of the leader's polls pitch. Large numbers of people seemed more interested in the items sold under makeshift tents set up at the fringes of the ceramah venue by traders hailing from as far as Baling and Sungai Petani in Kedah, and Ipoh, which is some 130km south of here. They scurried away when asked to be interviewed, some admitting they were not there for the event. Many hung around to listen to Anwar but kept their distance from the group of a few hundred who crowded near the ceramah stage to cheer and clap at the opposition leader's words. "I appeal for your co-operation," said the bespectacled Anwar at midnight in Taman Semarak, Batu 2, Gerik. "Support our candidates... PKR, PAS, DAP... because we need you to win Perak, to win Putrajaya." In his element as usual, the 64-year-old former deputy prime minister reminded voters of his years in prison and how he had been beaten, stripped bare and even had his privates "measured". He told of campaigns to attack him and his family — his wife, PKR president Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, and daughter, Lembah Pantai MP Nurul Izzah Anwar — and the numerous allegations of his alleged affiliations with the Jews of Israel, the Americans, with the Chinese, the Indians and even the Sulu terrorists in Sabah.
"But the more you threaten me, the greater my support grows. Look at this," he said, gesturing to the crowd. He also told the predominantly Malay crowd that it was only the higher-ups in Umno and their cronies who have been reaping the country's riches, claiming that the Barisan Nasional (BN) government has only been feeding scraps to the poorer masses through programmes like Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BR1M). "And then recipients thank them, kiss their hands, saying oh thank you, thank you," he said. "But I want to tell you, the people of Gerik, I want to tell you that if the rich supports them (BN), it does not surprise me. Because timber they get, shares they get, taxi permits they get. "But the Malays from the villages," he continued, gesturing again to the crowd, "... why do you support them?" Anwar later appealed to the crowd to give him 24 hours to decide on his candidacy for Election 2013, but stressed that it was his intention to contest a seat in Perak. "I've been here for nine years. Seven years in Kuala Kangsar.... and two years where? In Kamunting," he laughingly said, referring to his two-year jail term under the Internal Security Act (ISA) at the Kamunting detention camp near here. Speaking on the sidelines of the event, several PR leaders admitted that Election 2013 would still be a toss-up between the opposition pact and BN, largely due to lukewarm support from the state's Malay voters. PKR's Simpang Pulai assemblyman Chan Ming Kai told The Malaysian Insider that PR was banking largely on the state's newly-registered voters and hopes to win at least 40 per cent from this group. He noted that Chinese support for PR has remained strong, while many among the Indian community may have fallen back to BN's fold. "So we can only survive with a simple majority government if we can win at least 30 to 40 per cent of the new Malay votes," he said. One PR leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said any talk that PR was a shoo-in to capture Perak in Election 2013 was an overly generous prediction. "If you ask me, it is too close to call. We lose some votes from one group, gain from another. We cannot say for certain what will happen during the polls," the leader said.
|
| Young voters may call the shots in Malaysia polls Posted: 04 Apr 2013 02:20 PM PDT
2.3 million voters will be exercising their rights for the first time
CALL them the wild card in Malaysia's looming national election. Some 2.3 million of the country's 13.3 million registered voters - or one in five - will be entering a polling booth for the first time, going by figures provided by the Election Commission. Analysts say these voters - mostly under 40 and Internet-savvy, raised amid growing prosperity but now irked by inflation, passionate about Malaysia's future and more willing to experiment - are unlikely to be as yoked to Barisan Nasional (BN) as previous generations. One reason is that they have not experienced nation-defining events such as independence from British rule or the 1969 racial riots. So far, neither the ruling BN government nor the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) can claim to have won them over. Many people have not voted before as voting is not compulsory in Malaysia. The surge in voter numbers is caused by a spike in political awareness and active registration campaigns held by both sides of the political divide. Pollster Merdeka Centre surveyed 826 first-time voters between November and December last year. More than half admitted to being agnostic in their politics. Still, two-thirds felt the government had paid attention to their needs. These voters, of whom 90 per cent said they had access to the Internet, are less likely to vote by political party and more ready to base their votes on issues, said Merdeka programme director Ibrahim Suffian at a recent forum. What worries BN is that there is no shortage of issues troubling the young - including corruption, crime and the economy. Writer Melody Song, 27, lives in Australia and has registered for a postal vote. She said she and others who have enjoyed a Western education, are less likely to be thrown by threats of civil unrest if they vote opposition. "Younger voters are sick of having propaganda stuffed down our throats, and not being able to question if things could be different," she told The Straits Times. "We are not ungrateful - we just want things to improve because we care about Malaysia." That said, she is still undecided about which way to vote. In an election where every ballot could count, both BN and PR have lavished attention on this group. BN has given vouchers for smartphones to young voters and RM250 (S$100) cash handouts to singles earning under RM2,000 a month. PR has promised free education and lower car prices. Mr Vinod Hariram, 30, an engineer in Sarawak, said rising crime and the recent incursion by armed Filipinos into Sabah helped him make up his mind - he is voting for the opposition. "I want to vote in a government that can give me greater security." Mr Mervyn Leong, 33, who lives in Kuala Lumpur and is unemployed, is still on the fence. "Both BN and PR have good and bad leaders, and I doubt the opposition can give us a significantly better government," he said. "I need to look at the track record of the politicians being fielded." Mr David Yeoh, a 30-year-old accountant, is flying back from China to vote because he is frustrated by the widening income gap and inflation. His decision seems to have been made. "Malaysia is becoming increasingly polarised, and I feel that, despite the economic reforms, many of us have been left out of the policies, and the young are finding it harder to own homes." |
"How many more groups am I an agent of? It is enough," Anwar (picture) said. "You want to insult me? Go ahead. Call me a sodomiser... a dog."
| You are subscribed to email updates from Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
0 ulasan:
Catat Ulasan