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Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News |
| Malaysian Psephology: Kapar 2008 Posted: 24 Dec 2012 03:54 PM PST
Prashun Dutt, The Sun Daily FROM 1995 to 2008, the number of registered voters (electorate) had grown by over 66% from 67,555 to 112,224. This indicates a substantial increase of 44,669 voters over this 13-year period, making Kapar among the largest Parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia. In terms of ethnic breakdown, as of March 2008, Malays constituted 49.3% of the Kapar electorate, while Chinese made up 37.6%, Indians 12.6% and the rest less than 0.5%. Despite the sizeable growth of the electorate, the percentage of voting has remained consistently high throughout these 13 years (from 73% to 78%). Ballot papers issued had increased by nearly 77% from 49,595 (1995) to 87,644 (2008), confirming that the increasing number of registered voters in Kapar remained similarly committed towards casting their votes. Despite growth in electoral size, the percentage voting support for Barisan Nasional (represented by MIC) has been declining or inconsistent since the resounding 67.1% support garnered by MIC's G. Leelavathi in 1995. Prominent MIC leader Datin Komala Devi received 49.6% of the votes in 1999, overcoming the challenge by PAS and avoiding a closer contest due to a split in opposition ranks. She retained the seat in 2004, this time brushing off a PKR challenge, with 57.9% support and a convincing margin of 14,588 votes. In 2008, however, she lost the seat by a similarly convincing margin of 12,297 votes to PKR's Manikavasagam Sundaram. PKR wrested the seat with 55.3% of the votes versus 41.2% polled by BN-MIC. While the gap in votes polled by the two candidates was around 15%, this seat witnessed one of the most noticeable "swing factors" of 2008. From losing the seat by 14,588 votes in 2004, PKR worked the ground and connected adequately with at least an additional 1/3 of the electorate, including the new entrants in the constituency, besides retaining most of their own support base. Considering all the relevant contributing factors – the 8,039 growth in size of electorate (from 2004 to 2008), the number of additional 11,000 plus ballots in the box (in 2008 compared to 2004), and the difference in voting support – the swing factor was over 24% in the final touchdown. The constituency has a mix of well-settled urbanites, new townships and some rural areas. With ethnic block-voting trends declining in Malaysia, large electorate constituencies having different socio-economic clusters will require sincere constructive groundwork by all candidates. However, at the time of print, theSun was yet to obtain comments from both parties regarding their specific plans for this constituency.
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| MIC is finished, says ex-leader Posted: 24 Dec 2012 03:39 PM PST
Muthu Palaniappan predicts a worse outing than in 2008 and says the party will drag down BN with it. Zafry Dahalan, FMT MIC will do worse in the coming election than it did in 2008, according to a former leader of the party. M Muthu Palaniappan, a defector to PKR who claims to be familiar with grassroots feelings, made this prediction in an interview with FMT. He said a majority of Indian voters had grown tired of MIC's "empty promises" and would make their feelings known at the ballot box. Muthu's main power base is Negeri Sembilan, but he was one of the few state MIC leaders who rose to national prominence in the 80s and 90s. He was MIC Youth chief from 1979 to 1984 and vice president of the party from 1997 to 2000. He holds the record as the longest serving Negeri Sembilan state assemblyman from MIC, having won the Si Rusa (now Port Dickson) seat in 1982 and the Rantau seat in 1986 and 1990. He was a member of the state exco for 13 years until 1995. He was the Negeri Sembilan MIC chief from 1979 to 1995. He was often in the news in the late 80s and early 90s for his bold criticism of party president S Samy Vellu. Muthu studied law at Lincoln's Inn and was once the chairman of the London Union of Malaysian and Singapore Students. FMT: Why did you leave MIC after being with the party for 40 years? MIC is not on the right track. Gone are the days of MIC leaders working for the people. Nowadays they work only to enrich themselves. They are not bothered about the Indian community. Just look at the civil service and how the Indians are left out. The state of Indians in the public sector is very sad. What has MIC has done? Nothing. MIC leaders at the national level have not kept their promises. That's why I left and joined PKR. How do you think MIC will fare in the 13th general election? It will lose badly, worse than in 2008. The people—Malays, Chinese and Indians—have already made up their mind to vote for changes. The expectations of the Indians are high. They want government jobs, but the intake of Indians into government service leaves much to be desired. And even among those lucky enough to have jobs in the civil service, they have low expectations of being promoted. The situation is similar with intake into public universities. Not enough places are offered to Indian students although many of them are deserving. MIC does nothing about all this. The only thing MIC does is make empty promises, millions of empty promises. Let's talk about Negeri Sembilan. Indians make up quite a sizeable number of voters in the state. Surely some will vote for MIC. MIC will lose everything in Negeri Sembilan. The remaining MIC seat in Negeri Sembilan is the Jeram Padang state seat. This seat will go to Pakatan Rakyat. MIC has been talking about winning back the Port Dickson state seat and the Teluk Kemang parliament seat. It must be joking. Negeri Sembilan MIC is very ineffective. It has done nothing for the Indians in the past 10 years. Other Barisan Nasional component parties also will face the same fate as MIC because the Indians are the balancing power in Negeri Sembilan. This fact is known to Umno as well. No point giving hampers at the last minute. There is awakening among the Indians in the state. Negeri Sembilan MIC is divided into factions, but they pretend to be united. There are many MIC branch leaders pretending to be loyal to the party. But they are only eyeing the material benefits that will come during the election campaign period. Politically, they have felt cheated for a long time. They are disappointed. Just watch out; these leaders will throw their support behind Pakatan during the general election. What are your feelings about MIC chief G Palanivel?
He is the weakest president in MIC's history. He can't gather any support. He has no grassroots support. Palanivel has a strange political style. He has chosen a few people to be with him in a small circle. He doesn't know that these people are actually there only for material benefits, not out of loyalty to MIC and BN. What do you think of the idea of bringing back Samy Vellu to help MIC retake Sungai Siput? BN will lose at least an extra 10% of votes not only in Sungai Siput, but also throughout the country. Samy's presence will tremendously help Pakatan. It will send a signal to the voters that Palanivel is a weak president.
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