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- S’gor still safe for Pakatan, say analysts
- Sabah BN will win seats ‘by default’
- ESQUIRE: Raja Petra Kamarudin
| S’gor still safe for Pakatan, say analysts Posted: 10 Oct 2012 06:57 PM PDT
They see the spat over Azmin as being irrelevant to voter sentiment. Anisah Shukry, FMT The current infighting among PKR leaders over Selangor is unlikely to erode Pakatan Rakyat's chances of holding on to the country's richest state, according to political analysts. "Selangor voters are quite firm in their support for Pakatan and the pattern is not expected to change," Dr Jayum A Jawan of UKM told FMT. "While the infighting could affect its performance in Selangor in the next general election, I do not expect Pakatan Rakyat to do badly." He said voters were likely to view the infighting as a "family squabble" that could easily be resolved rather than a serious sign of things gone awry in the opposition pact. Centre for Policy Initiatives director Lim Teck Ghee agreed with Jayum. "What we can see is of course the mainstream media playing it up for all it is worth," he said. "Unfortunately, some in the Internet media are also making a mountain out of a molehill." The media frenzy over the infighting started after Sinar Harian quoted PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali as saying that Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim would become federal minister should Pakatan win the next general election. Khalid and PKR vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar have dismissed the statement as Azmin's personal opinion, but his remarks have triggered speculation that he is eyeing Khalid's job. Khalid's personal assistant, Faekah Husin, has criticised Azmin more directly, questioning his right to make an announcement on a matter that only Pakatan's top tier could decide. This provoked PKR's election director for Selangor, Borhan Aman Shah, to call for her sacking. But both Jayum and Lim said the feud could easily be resolved in a matter of days. "In Selangor, the key issues are not of leaders' fighting, but of the previous mismanagement of the state, the water issue, corruption, and a better quality of life," said Lim. No better alternative As such, according to both Lim and Jawan, Pakatan would be denied another term only if Selangor voters had a better alternative to turn to. They said Barisan Nasional had yet to prove that it could be that alternative. "If BN wins Selangor again, it will go back to the old system of cronyism, close tenders, select partners and the like," said Lim. "Unless BN can put down in writing the basic changes it is going to make, I am not in support of it and I believe that Selangor voters share my sentiment." Lim said that BN must own up to the wrongs it had done during its days of power in Selangor and then tell the people what it would do to correct itself. "For example, the water issue was totally mismanaged by the previous Selangor government," he said. "It was better handled in Penang, where they allowed for the model of privatisation which served the interests of the state and the consumers rather than the company." Jayum described Selangor BN as "loud" without having any "concrete plan". "BN does not need to attack the opposition; it just has to tell the voters what it wants to do, and how it will do better if it were to win Selangor," he said. "Based on the information I've gathered from the ground, BN is doing badly." Jayum said BN had neglected "practical politics" in favour of attacking personalities in Pakatan and trying to discredit the current administration's water management. "BN thinks it is making things difficult for PR with regard to the water issue, but actually it is just making things difficult for the end users, which are the people of Selangor. "It wants to discredit PR, but this will backfire. People will say BN leaders have a small heart." Lim said Pakatan had done enough to keep the people of Selangor happy and the votes coming in. "Pakatan has cut down on corruption, increased efficiency of services in the state, been able to balance the budget of the state, and tackle major problems in the state such as the water issue." He noted that Pakatan faced some difficulty in resolving certain issues, but said this was because of lack of cooperation from the federal government. "Of course it is difficult for them to get such cooperation as they are the opposition."
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| Sabah BN will win seats ‘by default’ Posted: 10 Oct 2012 01:51 PM PDT
Some analysts in Sabah believe that as many as 20 seats, including five or six parliamentary seats, could go to BN as a result of a split in opposition votes. Luke Rintod, FMT Sabah is set to see multi-cornered fights in most areas in the coming general election. This means that the ruling Barisan Nasional may have the edge. At this stage, observers can conclude that the opposition parties in Sabah are giving Umno-led BN a "free advantage" to retain a majority of the Sabah seats. At stake in Sabah are 26 parliamentary seats, including one in Labuan, and 60 state seats. Sabah chairman of State Reform Party (STAR), Jeffrey Kitingan, said recently that his party is all but ready to announce the seats – parliamentary and state – it will contest. "We can announce the seats shortly," he said confidently to reporters when asked how many seats STAR will contest in Sabah. Jeffrey in the past had talked about contesting in more than half of the 60 state seats. He had even at one stage indicated that STAR may go the whole hog and contest in all 26 parliamentary and 60 state seats. But reality seems to have set in. Asked if STAR had reconciled overlapping claims on seats with other opposition parties – Pakatan Rakyat and Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) – Jeffrey refused to divulge further. "Wait for another day," he said. He also reiterated that STAR had received the green light from the Election Commission (EC) to contest in Sabah in the coming polls. STAR list ready The Sarawak-based STAR's eligibility to stand in Sabah under its symbol has attracted much speculation even though the party had done so in Kota Marudu years back. STAR's Sabah chapter secretary, Guandee Kohoi, said that EC Sabah director, Idrus Ismail, in a meeting with Jeffrey, himself and Edward Linggu (STAR information chief) had given them assurance that STAR indeed could field candidates in Sabah. "STAR is already on the latest list of political parties EC gave us. Even the name of STAR has been amended and does not state the word Sarawak anymore but just State Reform Party. "The latest list also contains the re-named party, Sarawak Worker's Party' [SWP], which was previously Sabah-based Sabah People's Front [SPF]," Kohoi said. Meanwhile, the number of STAR's potential candidates has been growing steadily and in many places, they are already clear frontrunners. At least half a dozen graduate teachers aligned to STAR have so far resigned from their posts, and a few other civil servants are said to be set to retire early to prepare to be the candidates. STAR Youth leader, Hasmin Azroy Abdulah, is among the teachers who have resigned. He could be STAR's candidate for Tenom parliamentary seat or one of the state seats in the constituency. Another teacher who has also resigned is Maklin Masiau. He is poised to be STAR's candidate for poverty-stricken Pitas state seat in the north. Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) is also eyeing Pitas. Pinus Gondili is another teacher who quit his job and is slated to contest under STAR in Labuk. He is certain to fight incumbent Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) vice-president, Michael Asang, after PBS recently confirmed Asang would be retained. PKR is also eyeing Labuk, making it one of those many seats in Sabah that are likely to see four-cornered fights between BN and the opposition trio – STAR, Pakatan and SAPP. Cunning SAPP Meanwhile, both STAR and SAPP leaders are saying publicly, at least, that they would not want to face each other where their respective "big guns" are contesting. That would mean SAPP would not put up a candidate against Jeffrey and his right-hand men. But there is a big question mark as Inanam, the seat of Jeffrey's senior deputy Daniel John Jambun, is being eyed by SAPP through its deputy president Eric Majimbun who is Sepanggar MP. The cunning SAPP has previously suggested that all should respect the status quo of the incumbents. Soon after getting others to "respect" it, SAPP moved to claim Inanam. "The question is, if SAPP is adamant on taking both Inanam and Sepanggar, then where will Jambun contest?" asked a STAR supporter in Inanam recently. Jambun had in 2008 contested under PKR ticket and garnered a respectable 4,293 votes against DAP's 2,864. The eventual winner was BN-PBS Johnny Goh who obtained 5,979 votes. Karambunai is another state seat under Sepanggar, but it is possible that SAPP president Yong Teck Lee would want to stand there this time as he has scores of Malay supporters in this constituency. Other possible places for Yong are his former seat Likas near here or Lahad Datu, his hometown in the east coast. Yong stood in the Batu Sapi parliamentary by-election in November 2010 and lost badly, finishing last with only 2,031 votes behind PKR-imported candidate Ansari Abdullah's 3,414 and eventual winner BN-PBS Linda Tsen who received 9,773. SAPP could be fielding its secretary-general Richard Yong in the Tanjung Aru mixed state seat where another of Jeffrey's deputy, Ahmad Sah Sahari, is keen. It is understood that STAR is prepared to let SAPP take Tanjung Aru. But Pakatan – maybe through DAP – is also eyeing the seat. Split opposition votes The murky waters of Sabah's politics is set to get murkier as opposition leaders fail to appreciate the importance of reconciling their differences and overlapping claims of strength. Some analysts have said that this time as many as 20 seats, including five or six parliamentary seats, could go to BN by default as a result of a split in opposition votes. One analyst cited Kadamaian where if the three opposition parties – STAR, Pakatan and SAPP – put up their respective candidates, they could garner combined votes of around 6,000, leaving a BN candidate way behind with only about 3,500 votes. But BN would still win because of the "strategic" split in the opposition camps. He said a similar situation was also likely in adjacent Tempasuk state seat. The combined votes of the opposition could outnumber BN's but because of the split, BN will retain Tempasuk. For the record, in the last general election in 2008, there was a three-cornered fight for Tempasuk. BN won the seat after its candidate polled 6,541 votes. PKR garnered 4,109 and an independent took only 191 votes. As for Kadamaian in 2008, BN-PBS Herbert Timbon Lagadan chalked up 5,382 votes, followed by PKR Lukia Indan's 2,909 and independent Peter Marajin's 1,729. "There is no question that this time [2012], votes for the opposition would increase in almost all areas and everyone can feel it and even BN leaders acknowledge this. "But the one factor that can ensure BN will win in Sabah is the split opposition votes," said an observer who is also an NGO leader. Meanwhile, there is no signal that SAPP is re-engaging with Pakatan after being slighted by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's conniving manoeuvres.
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| Posted: 10 Oct 2012 01:42 PM PDT In our October Rule-Breaking Issue, we talk to a man who is no stranger to pushing the boundaries. Ever since he started his controversial website Malaysia Today, blogger and activist Raja Petra Kamarudin has butt heads with the law, law-makers, and even the law-makers' greatest critics. We sat down (over Skype, as he, at the time of the interview, was in Manchester, England) and chatted with RPK about his views on Malaysia, bullying, and stirring trouble. Here are seven choice quotes: I attended an English school from standards one to five and a Malayan school in standard six. But in form one, I went to an all-Malay school and I knew what hell was like. Imagine the bullying: I was Malay, royalty and didn't speak a damn word of Malay. I didn't last. To me, it wasn't a school—it was a prison sentence. I think that's why after I was detained and sent to Kamunting, I didn't find it so bad because I had already served two years in Kuala Kangsar. I had a job for two years but I didn't have the discipline to work because I can't obey rules. I support the opposition's cause but that doesn't mean I support the opposition. Supporting the opposition's cause is very different from supporting the opposition. If I support democracy, it doesn't mean I support America. I can be anti-America yet pro-democracy. This is what the opposition doesn't understand. They think if we accept something, it has to be lock, stock and barrel.
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