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A fool’s paradise?
When barking dogs turn rabid
Recent events have been illuminating, have they not?
2010 national debt at RM407b: what are the implications in layman terms?

Posted: 23 Oct 2011 06:45 PM PDT

But how quickly times change. Within a week, even The Star was forced to concede that a number of economists thought the growth forecast of 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent for 2012 was somewhat optimistic, without which premise the entire fiscal deficit reduction claim would appear to be a pipe dream.

Kapil Sethi, The Malaysian Insider

Spot on! Screamed out page after page in The Star the day after the Budget 2012 announcement by the prime minister. Barisan Nasional was at pains to paint it as a caring budget which emphasised its concern for the underprivileged through a number of cash handouts and maintenance of subsidies across the board.

In less than another week, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) revised its growth forecast down to 5 per cent for 2012. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, in an even gloomier tone, said that it expected growth might be below its potential rate of 3 to 5 per cent next year. US unemployment feeding into a probable double-dip recession in its economy and the eurozone crisis has the whole world bracing for a year of desperate belt tightening.

Already, volatility in the investment, stock and currency markets has reached such a level that Bank Negara recently reported that foreign investors sold Malaysian equities to the tune of US$439.6 million (RM1.36 billion) in August and September alone. This was reflected in a drop in Malaysian foreign exchange reserves to the tune of US$5.3 billion at the end of September. The ringgit has also been continuously weakening against all major currencies in the same period.

At this juncture, it might be wise to ask why the Malaysian government's blithely rosy forecast and expectations for 2012 are at such complete variance with the rest of the world, and what it may mean for the Malaysian consumer in the coming months.

In one word — politics. The raison d'être for politicians is to promise a better future to voters. In an election year especially there is undeniable pressure on the ruling coalition to deliver that elusive "feel-good" factor through all the instruments of state at its disposal to win re-election.

Having said that, the government and BN are distinct entities. While it is the job of a political coalition to influence voters positively, it should be the job of the government to take a more responsible stand when the future livelihood of its citizens is at stake.

A reasonably independent civil service is a prerequisite to reining in the natural propensity of all politicians to spend, spend, spend and leave the consequences to the distant future. When the bureaucracy is supine, the result is a budget like the one recently presented — a free-for-all spending plan with no acknowledgement of the economic realities and forecasts on the ground.

Due the perceived unpopularity of the proposed GST and an extremely narrow taxpayer base, simply put the plan to raise revenue seems to be one of cross your fingers and hope for the best. If the US goes into another recession and oil prices plummet, even the current revenue of the government will drop, let alone increase. Whereas on the expenditure side there is a plethora of proposals set to precipitously increase operating costs.

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When barking dogs turn rabid

Posted: 23 Oct 2011 06:24 PM PDT

They need to remember that the moment a person enters politics, regardless of whether the person wears a military uniform, religious paraphernalia, a doctor's white coat or even a suit and tie, that person is a politician. A politician wants people's support so that he or she will be in power. You can give your trust but don't ever give away your freedom, especially your freedom to remove the politician who you trusted in the first place.

Jema Khan, The Malaysian Insider

Politicians all over the world claim to be the protectors of their people. They often conjure up various threats to our wellbeing. When we buy into their stories we tend to support them and thus they are able to rule over us. In a democracy this is less of a problem as when we stop believing the politicians' spiel we can always vote them out. But many parts of the world do not have fully functioning democracies and thus we find leaders who, once they have been empowered, do all they can to stay in power and thwart any move to democratise.

These autocrats and their sycophants will bark their ideologies to all and sundry. They expect their people to believe their worldview so that they remain in power. Those who oppose them in their own country are often treated harshly so that they would be able inject fear into the society to silence any further dissent. Unfortunately for them, the advent of the Internet has seriously limited their ability to keep their citizens ignorant and quiet for long. Competing views which tend to be more liberal in nature do crop up and challenge the existing order. The so called "Arab Spring", though nascent, has exposed some world leaders to be nothing more than barking dogs.

The people in Tunisia and Egypt were a little more fortunate that they were able to remove their barking dogs with less loss of life than in neighbouring Libya. At least Ben Ali and Mubarak knew that the jig was up when their people clearly turned against them. Gaddafi, on the other hand, continued to bark and even turned rabid when his people wanted him gone. Who can forget his famous lines, "my people love me, my people love me all", that was carried on the cable news networks. He was so out of touch with his people and reality that it would have been comical, if not for his attempted massacre of his own people.

The hope for those countries that have successfully removed their autocrats is that their people will be freer and be able to put in place a democratic process that cannot be easily undone by any aspiring dictator. The only advice I would give them is that they avoid choosing those politicians who bark the loudest who want to show them to the promise land but take away their freedom.

In Malaysia's case, it seems that the people are fairly circumspect of their politicians and that is certainly a sign of our political maturity. The message that the people are sending the politicians is that they prefer a two-party system but both coalitions, as is our case in Malaysia, need to appeal more to the centre.

A group called "Himpun" that wanted to gather a million people to support its claim of rising apostasy in Malaysia only managed to get a few thousand people on Saturday to support them. Malaysian Muslims know that there is no threat to Islam in this country.

Even when Malay rights group Perkasa wanted to have a counter gathering against election reform group Bersih a few months ago, there was little support. The majority of the Malays feel fairly secure that their interests will not be sidelined regardless of whoever wins the next election. The Malays know that they are the majority and in terms of parliamentary seats they have a disproportionately larger share of the seats because of the rural bias in the seat distribution.

Even the hudud issue will not gain much traction among the Malays or Muslims in Malaysia as many know that it would not be practical in our multiracial society. The biggest problem for both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional is that they are influenced by a few fringe groups that are clamouring loudly. Both coalitions need to listen to the centre as they are the majority of the voters, though this group tends not to be less vocal.

But what is the centre in Malaysia? I will try to define the centre though I realise that I may be biased as I am looking at it through the eyes of a liberal.

Posted: 23 Oct 2011 06:15 PM PDT

Now things are different. More and more people are openly questioning what's being done in our names. And yet, whilst as individuals we rejoice in having intelligent children who ask us lots of questions, as a society we seem to think it perfectly acceptable to deny older youngsters from reaching their full potential by learning how to think critically.

Farah Fahmy, The Malaysian Insider

The suspension of Prof Dr Abdul Aziz Bari last week was disappointing. Universities are supposed to be places where critical thinking is honed. If an academic can be suspended from his post for merely commenting on a matter in which he is an expert, then what hope is there for our students?

I learnt a lot of things at university, but not as much, I think, as some of the Japanese students on my course who were genuinely surprised to learn about Japanese atrocities during World War II. It was at university that I started questioning some of the assumptions that I had held about our country and our society. But, you see, I was lucky. I studied abroad and had teachers whose first duty was to broaden the minds of the students they taught.

In our country, university students have to abide by the Akta Universiti dan Kolej Universiti (AUKU), which, among other things, forbids students from joining any political parties. Not only that, students are also prohibited from expressing any support or opposition towards any political parties. Strange, isn't it?

In our country, the brightest young minds are expressly forbidden from taking part in shaping our society and our future. What a pity. I happen to think that society and by extension, a country, cannot stay static in its views.

Once upon a time, our society deferred to those who led us. We didn't question the judgment of our leaders. Those who did were expelled from the club (remember a certain young doctor in the late 1960s?), cast out, for daring to question the status quo.

And now this sorry episode of the suspended academic; and for such a silly reason too. What he said was hardly earth-shattering. Then there's Jakim going around saying that many Muslims no longer respect the authority of our Sultans. Lest I be accused of committing lese-majesté, may I respectfully remind Jakim that this is hardly surprising, given the antics of certain members of the royal family in Kelantan, Johor and Negri Sembilan in recent years.

Then there's the furore surrounding Lim Guan Eng's son. What a foul taste that has left in my mouth. Whatever the rights or wrongs of the situation, have we forgotten that one is innocent until proven guilty, and to paraphrase a famous saying, the doings of the father should not be visited on the son?

This surely is a new low. I thought calling Dr Wan Azizah a "pelacur politik" was bad enough but you could at least argue that as a political figure, she was fair game. Attacking the son of a political opponent? Disgusting. No matter what he did, Lim Guan Eng's son should not have his picture plastered online, and neither should anyone comment on unproven allegations.

What's more, the remarks of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin are at best an embarrassment. He admitted that he did not have any information about the claims, but he couldn't keep his mouth shut, could he? No, he had to weigh in and give his two cents' worth too.

Posted: 23 Oct 2011 05:27 PM PDT

Everything in Malaysia will be owned by the foreigners because of the chain-reaction; the banks will be owned by foreigners, thus all those who borrow or depend on the banks; the loans, the business, the business ventures, homes, houses, properties, land and shares (they bought from bank loans) will all be owned by the foreigners.

Nawawi Mohamad, The Malaysian Insider

The national debt consists of internal debt (owed to lenders within the country) and external debt (owed to foreign lenders). Governments usually borrow by issuing government bonds and securities (IOU documents) and simply borrow directly from local money institutions.

Repayments will then be made based on a schedule and periodical timeframe that will determine when the repayment or instalment is due and the quantum plus interest and the promised dividends.

As long as the payment schedule is met, everything is fine but when there is a default (the government not able to pay as scheduled) it is the first indication of when the situation is beginning to turn bad. The next step is to re-schedule the payment, make the repayment amount lower by making the period longer and increase the interest which otherwise the lender will not agree. They want more money at the end of it. The whole process is similar to the Ah Long business but with all the formalities and legalities in place.

Next, if the situation gets worse, the government has to borrow more money to pay the instalments. The Malay phrase for it is "gali lubang, tutup lubang". This is what in fact is going to happen now.

With the ever increasing budget, unmitigated wastages or leakages and slow growth, default in payments to the lenders is imminent.

Slow growth means the overall economic activities and productivity is low which in most part is directly influenced by the world economy. Even if I am wrong, why wait until the time comes when the Umno/BN government can do something about it now?

The Umno/BN government must start the austerity drive now before it is too late. It must reduce spending now when there is still room to manoeuvre. It is a tactical retreat; not to lose, but a necessary move to win. By the time when Malaysia needs some foreign funds to survive like Greece, it would be too late. By that time there will be mayhem. Everything in Malaysia will be owned by the foreigners because of the chain-reaction; the banks will be owned by foreigners, thus all those who borrow or depend on the banks; the loans, the business, the business ventures, homes, houses, properties, land and shares (they bought from bank loans) will all be owned by the foreigners.

READ MORE HERE

Kredit: www.malaysia-today.net

Isnin, 24 Oktober 2011

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

Malaysia Today - Your Source of Independent News

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