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| WIKILEAKS: ANWAR SHIFTS GEARS, NOT GOALS, SAY AIDES Posted: 02 Aug 2011 01:00 AM PDT
Talks with Razaleigh remain inconclusive because Razaleigh continues to insist on the prospective position of Prime Minister, while PKR estimates that Razaleigh could secure the crossover of only four or five UMNO MPs. Anwar is also maintaining contact with PM Abdullah at this stage, primarily through son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, Tian Chua said. Whether members of Abdullah's circle would consider crossing over to Anwar remained an open question. THE CORRIDORS OF POWER Raja Petra Kamarudin
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000991
SIPDIS
FOR EAP AND INR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, MY SUBJECT: ANWAR SHIFTS GEARS, NOT GOALS, SAY AIDES
REF: KUALA LUMPUR 979 - INITIAL REACTION TO U.S. ELECTION
Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b and d).
Summary and Comment 1. (C) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a less aggressive posture for now, but his goal remains bringing down the UMNO-led government through parliamentary crossovers prior to Deputy Prime Minister Najib becoming the next UMNO party president and Prime Minister, according to top officials in Anwar's Peoples Justice Party (PKR). Part of Anwar's strategy entails reaching out to the "losers" in the transition from Prime Minister Abdullah to Najib, including UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh. The PKR officials acknowledged that the government's September arrests of three persons under the Internal Security Act (ISA) had sent an effective warning to those considering switching their support to Anwar. PKR officials and Anwar's lawyers assumed the sodomy prosecution against Anwar would move forward, with a trial phase likely beginning by January. The Opposition was unlikely to support "superficial" reforms that UMNO would try to rush through parliament as part of outgoing PM Abdullah's legacy. The Ambassador met on October 30 with Tengku Razaleigh, who complained about his inability to compete in the UMNO nomination process due to money politics and contended that the next UMNO president (Najib) would not necessarily become the next Prime Minister. 2. (C) Comment: We currently are witnessing a different tone and pace in the struggle between the Opposition and UMNO following Anwar's unrealized September deadline and the rapid consolidation of UMNO support behind Najib as the next Prime Minister. While PKR's rationale for wanting to head-off Najib remains in place, Anwar has lost political momentum for the moment and seems to face increasingly long odds in securing future crossovers. Anwar's ability to attract the "losers" from the Abdullah-Najib transition remains theoretical. End Summary and Comment. Anwar's Less Aggressive Posture 3. (C) Polcouns met separately with PKR Information Chief Tian Chua and PKR Vice President Sivarasa Rasiah on November 3 and 5, respectively. Both PKR officials acknowledged that Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a lower key approach since the passage of Anwar's public September 16 deadline to bring down PM Abdullah's government through the crossover of 30 or more government MPs. Compared with September, Anwar is now more focused on consolidating the Opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat), which encompasses three parties with often disparate political views: PKR, the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP), and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS). As the formal Opposition leader in Parliament, Anwar is devoting attention to Pakatan's actions in parliament and guiding Opposition MPs, most of whom are sitting in the body for the first time. Crossover Goal Unchanged 4. (C) Despite his less aggressive public posture, Anwar's goal remains bringing down the UMNO-led government through parliamentary crossovers prior to Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak becoming the next UMNO party president and Prime Minister, Tian Chua and Sivarasa stated. The time horizon has shifted from December to March 2009, in line with the shift in the UMNO party elections, at which time Najib is set to become UMNO president uncontested. PKR officials reiterated that Anwar and PKR remain focused on preempting Najib's takeover if possible, because they believe Najib would invoke authoritarian measures to scuttle the Opposition before the next national elections. In the months ahead, PKR would look for opportunities to weaken support for Najib and the government, for example by criticizing GOM measures in the face of a possible dramatic downturn in the economy following the global financial crisis, or by using new information linking Najib to scandals, like the Altantuya case and the Eurocopter purchase. (Comment: Anwar and other Opposition leaders have taken up such issues in Parliament over the past few weeks. On November 4, Anwar led a walk-out of Opposition MPs to protest Najib's refusal to allow questions during his presentation of revised budget figures. End Comment.) Attracting the "Losers" 5. (C) Anwar does not have enough ethnic Malay MPs ready to join the Opposition, according to both Tian Chua and Sivarasa, without which the Opposition faces unacceptable risks of a harsh government backlash justified on the basis of Malay nationalism. Anwar reportedly hopes to attract disaffected UMNO leaders and MPs who are "losers" in the current transition from Abdullah to Najib; most prominent among these is veteran UMNO leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Talks with Razaleigh remain inconclusive because Razaleigh continues to insist on the prospective position of Prime Minister, while PKR estimates that Razaleigh could secure the crossover of only four or five UMNO MPs (see notes below from the Ambassador's recent meeting with Razaleigh). Anwar is also maintaining contact with PM Abdullah at this stage, primarily through son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, Tian Chua said. Whether members of Abdullah's circle would consider crossing over to Anwar remained an open question. ISA as Warning to MPs 6. (C) The two PKR officials acknowledged that the government's September arrests of three persons -- a journalist, an Opposition MP and blogger Raja Petra -- under the Internal Security Act (ISA) had sent an effective warning to those MPs considering switching support to Anwar. (let's mention Petra's release today) (Comment: In early October, UMNO MP Nur Jazlan told Polcouns that the ISA arrests had been "very successful" in achieving UMNO's objective of intimidating MPs who had considered joining with Anwar. End Comment.) Sodomy Trial Will Remain a Factor 7. (C) Sankara Nair, a prominent attorney for Anwar, told us on November 5 that, regardless of maneuvers in the current Sessions Court, it only a matter of time before the government shifted Anwar's sodomy case to the High Court, a more favorable venue for the prosecution. Sivarasa, who also serves as one of Anwar's lawyers, believed that the trial phase of the sodomy case would begin in earnest by January. Neither Sankara nor Sivarasa believed the government would drop the case. Opposition Unlikely to Support Abdullah's Reforms 8. (C) The Prime Minister's circle -- through Khairy -- has approached Anwar regarding support for judicial reform measures that would be presented in Parliament soon as part of Abdullah's parting legacy, according to Sivarasa and Tian Chua. The Opposition, however, was unlikely to support these measures because they did not represent meaningful changes. The Opposition believed, for example, the proposed changes to the Anti-Corruption Commission would leave the body under firm executive control. Following the resignation of legal reform Minister Zaid Ibrahim, Nazri Aziz, de facto Minister for parliamentary affairs, led the judicial reform discussions in Parliament, but he lacked credibility. Anwar and the U.S. Presidential Election 9. (U) Following his initial remarks of November 5 (reftel), Anwar has continued to comment generally positively on Senator Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election. Time Magazine highlighted Anwar's remarks on President-elect Obama as the first among those of only 11 prominent world personalities. Anwar wrote that, "In Obama's victory are sown the seeds of great expectations that a truly new chapter will be written in the history of the world." Anwar publicly claimed he had been in contact with Senator Obama. Ambassador Calls on Razaleigh 10. (C) The Ambassador met on October 30 with Tengku Razaleigh, who, as the only challenger to DPM Najib for the UMNO presidency, had yet to garner a single UMNO division nomination (he now has one). Casting himself as a reformer, Razaleigh said that he wished to bring greater democracy and transparency to UMNO, but that he could not compete in the current nomination race in the face of engrained corruption and money-politics. Razaleigh said that Najib's coming to power would allow former Prime Minister Mahathir to regain substantial influence within the government. Razaleigh indicated his relations with Mahathir, his former political rival, remained strained. 11. (C) While Razaleigh conceded that Najib would win the UMNO contest, he stressed several times to the Ambassador that the next UMNO president would not necessarily become the next Prime Minister, but did not further explain this remark. Razaleigh speculated that there now existed grounds for PM Abdullah and Anwar Ibrahim to work together, for example on reform measures. Razaleigh thought that Khairy Jamaluddin currently acted as the go-between for Abdullah and Anwar. Razaleigh acknowledged, as he has publicly, that he continues contact with opposition politicians, but he did not otherwise signal he planned to leave UMNO. KEITH
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| Have things changed that much? Posted: 01 Aug 2011 05:58 PM PDT
Well, this later proved true when DAP left the opposition coalition and the opposition got whacked good and proper in the 2004 general election. No doubt each party's interest was 'protected'. But then at what cost? At the cost of the opposition cause and by sacrificing the opposition coalition -- which performed its worst in history in the 2004 general election. THE CORRIDORS OF POWER Raja Petra Kamarudin At a dinner with some friends on Sunday evening, they said that I appear to have changed. Like many of you, they were not Malaysia Today readers back in 2004 when it was first launched. Many, I know, only started reading Malaysia Today around 2007-2008. Actually, if you read what I wrote 12 years ago back in 1999, you will find that my views have not changed much. For example, even back in 1999 I would whack the opposition coalition, then called Barisan Alternatif. Note that in 1999, I was working for PKR (then called Parti Keadilan Nasional) in the media unit. Then, the DAP people were vilifying me in the late MGG Pillai's website, Sang Kancil, because I criticised DAP on its anti-Islamic State stand. It became so bad that I stopped contributing articles to Sang Kancil and decided to 'boycott' it. Anwar Ibrahim, who was then in the Sungai Buloh Prison, used to send me memos telling me how the party leadership was very unhappy with my anti-PAS commentaries. Their rationale was that since PAS is a member of Barisan Alternatif, I can't keep whacking them on the Islamic State issue. While the DAP people were angry that I whacked them on their anti-Islamic State stand, the PKR people were angry that I whacked PAS on their pro-Islamic State stand. Only PAS appeared unperturbed about my views -- which they probably regarded as inconsequential. Many viewed this as my 'inconsistency'. They thought that maybe I am a very confused person. I whacked DAP when they opposed the Islamic State and I whacked PAS when they proposed it. They did not understand that it is not because of my inconsistent stand on the Islamic State issue as much as my concern that we needed to look at the bigger picture or 'group interest' rather than the narrower 'own party interest'. In short, we should do things on consensus rather than focus on just party interest at the expense of coalition interest. If we had gone on like this, Barisan Alternatif would have broken up and the opposition would have lost the gains it made in 1999. Well, this later proved true when DAP left the opposition coalition and the opposition got whacked good and proper in the 2004 general election. No doubt each party's interest was 'protected'. But then at what cost? At the cost of the opposition cause and by sacrificing the opposition coalition -- which performed its worst in history in the 2004 general election. Anyway, I wrote the following article called 'Tengku Razaleigh: the last Malay gentleman' five years ago on 5th June 2006. Maybe this article can demonstrate what I mean. ************************************** Tengku Razaleigh: the last Malay gentleman Those aligned to Anwar Ibrahim feel I am very harsh towards him. Those aligned to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad also feel I am very harsh towards him. Those aligned to Najib Tun Razak feel I am very harsh towards him as well. And of course, when it comes to Khairy Jamaluddin, he himself feels I am just too brutal. Those from the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) cringe whenever I write about their party. But they do not really make a big case out of it. They just whisper into my ear that maybe I am being a bit unfair in what I write. Some even tell me, "Fair comment and comments which our leaders should take note of!" Those from the Democratic Action (DAP) say they do not mind that I criticise their party. I do not know whether they are just being diplomatic and are trying to give an impression that they are truly democratic and respect freedom of speech, but I am inclined to take what they say at face value. The Peoples' Justice Party (keADILan) however does not hold its punches. Its Information Chief has issued a press statement 'disowning' me and distancing the party from Malaysia Today. And of course we need not even mention Umno or Barisan Nasional that have been the brunt of my attacks for many long years, long before Anwar was ousted from power and in the days when he was still being touted as the next Prime Minister of Malaysia -- though in my writings in Harakah back in 1996 and 1997 I did say that this would never happen, and also gave my reasons on why I said so. Some say I am not consistent. They do not know whether I am coming or going. One day I swing this way and, another, the other. They feel that maybe it is because I am a loose cannon -- and a loose cannon is called a loose cannon because it rolls all over the deck, shoots in all directions, and sometimes shoots its own ship as well. A loose cannon is loose only because it is not tied down and would roll in tandem with the roll of the ship. Nevertheless, whether I am viewed as inconsistent, or a loose cannon, one thing you can be sure of, I am consistently shooting and everyone sooner or later gets shot. That is my consistency. But then there are some who have been spared my attacks -- those I have great respect for and look up to, though many others may not share my view on them. And who are these people? There are many -- Fadzil Noor, Hadi Awang, Nik Aziz, Mustaffa Ali, Husam Musa, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Ibrahim Ali, Shahrir Samad, Lim Guan Eng, Ronnie Liu, Dr Siti Mariah, Dr Lo' Lo' Ghazali, Dr Hatta Ramli, and many, many more. This list is in fact endless. However, not necessarily in order of priority, today I would just like to talk about Tengku Tan Sri Razaleigh Hamzah. Tengku Razaleigh is one of the few remaining Malay gentlemen as far as I am concerned. And Tengku Razaleigh, as far as I am concerned, became Prime Minister in 1987 but was prevented from taking office due to a brilliant coup launched by the Dr Mahathir Team A camp. Many say that Tengku Razaleigh has no pendirian (principles). They say he left Umno to form the opposition Semangat 46, then closed down the party and rejoined Umno when he realised he was going nowhere as an opposition leader. He rejoined Umno because all he wanted was power and this can only be acquired in Umno, not in the opposition. Well, first of all, Tengku Razaleigh did not leave Umno. Umno left him. To be exact, Umno was deregistered or closed down and a new party was formed, also called Umno, or rather Umno Baru. It is just coincidental (or maybe intentional) that the new party was also called Umno. It could have been called anything, but the fact that it was called Umno confused many who thought that Umno Baru was still Umno. It is not. When the new party was formed, Tengku Razaleigh and his group were not 'invited' to join it. They were left out in the cold, so Tengku Razaleigh had no choice but to also form another party as a platform to continue with what he was trying to achieve. And he called this party Semangat 46 or 'the spirit of 1946' because he still maintained the spirit on Umno which was formed in 1946. If he could not retain the party, he would at least retain the reason or spirit behind why the party was formed in 1946. Tengku Razaleigh never intended to make it big in the opposition. But now that he was heading what was an opposition party meant he had to work with the other opposition parties. And he knew, as an opposition, he would never achieve what he set out to do. But the opposition was all he had at that moment in time so he had to make the best of it under the circumstances. Dr Mahathir did this too when he spent almost three years outside Umno soon after the 13 May 1969 race riots. And Anwar is doing this now as well. But whether it is Tengku Razaleigh, Dr Mahathir or Anwar, all their roots are in Umno and Umno would be eventually where they have to return. Tengku Razaleigh did. Dr Mahathir did. And, come a point of time, Anwar too will have to do the same. So Tengku Razaleigh, just like Dr Mahathir before him, after a stint in the opposition, rejoined Umno. That was what it was all about. The name 'Semangat 46' was a tell all. Semangat 46 was all about the spirit of Umno. In fact, 'Semangat 46' was not the first choice of name. This name was chosen only because the name 'Umno Malaysia' was rejected by the Registrar of Societies. And the Registrar rejected the name to allow 'Umno Baru' to use the name, which was submitted for registration later, after they rejected the 'Umno Malaysia' name. It would have been foolish of anyone to think that Tengku Razaleigh was committed to the opposition and had no aspirations to return to Umno. PAS knew this, and that is why they kept Tengku Razaleigh and Semangat 46 at arm's length. They knew that the PAS-Semangat 46 relationship was not a marriage but a mere flirtation and a temporary affair. And that is why the relationship was merely cordial at best, and suspicious at worse, and did not last. Did Tengku Razaleigh rejoin Umno because of the fallout with PAS? Did Tengku Razaleigh rejoin Umno because he saw he had no future in the opposition? And did Tengku Razaleigh rejoin Umno because all he wanted was power? If he did, then he could have negotiated better terms for his return to Umno. There were already murmurings that Anwar had started to make his move on Dr Mahathir and that the Prime Minister was going to make his countermove to thwart the attempt to oust him. In fact, many thought that Dr Mahathir brought Tengku Razaleigh back to Umno so that he could remove or neutralise Anwar and replace his deputy with Tengku Razaleigh. Tengku Razaleigh could have placed himself in the position to replace Anwar as the number two once Dr Mahathir makes his move. But Tengku Razaleigh did not and instead the job went to Abdullah Ahmad Badawi -- so all the assumptions about Tengku Razaleigh were misplaced. When Tengku Razaleigh decided to take on Abdullah for the Umno Presidency -- he in fact received enough support to qualify -- all the divisions were instructed to not give Tengku Razaleigh any nominations. Those that remained stubborn were nipped in the bud. For example, one Kelantan division chief who persisted in nominating Tengku Razaleigh for president received a bankruptcy notice at midnight on the eve of his division meeting. No court delivers a bankruptcy notice at midnight. But this time it did because there was going to be a division meeting the next morning and they wanted to disqualify the division chief from attending the meeting whereby he would nominate Tengku Razaleigh for president. Tengku Razaleigh was robbed of his nominations to contest the Umno presidency, as he was robbed of the presidency almost two decades before that. But he did not protest. He did not kick up a fuss. He did not go into a rage and tear Umno to pieces. He took it in his stride like a gentleman. Winning or losing is not important. How you play the game is. Others can play the dirty game. But he will not bring himself down to their same level by also playing dirty. And that is why today I wanted to talk about Tengku Tan Sri Razaleigh Hamzah, one of the few remaining Malay gentlemen, probably the most misunderstood Malaysian politician. Maybe another time I will talk about some of the others and why I place them on my list of people I respect. If you were to ask me today who I think should be the Prime Minister of Malaysia, I think you know what that answer will be. |
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